The Oklahoma Sooners had an up-and-down 2025 College Football Season, but a strong finish sees them heading into the College Football Playoff. The Sooners enter the College Football Playoff as an “at-large” selection after missing out on the SEC Championship Game, and will have to win four more games if they want to be crowned national champions.
Using the PFSN College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Oklahoma’s playoff scenarios and how they can walk away with a CFB National Championship on January 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
Oklahoma’s Playoff Chances and Path to the College Football National Championship
- Chance to make CFP Semifinal: 19.4%
- Chance to make the National Championship: 8.8%
- Chance to win the National Championship: 3.9%
Oklahoma cemented its spot in the College Football Playoff thanks to a 17-13 win over LSU in Week 14 of the regular season. However, the games that put them back into contention were beating Tennessee and Alabama on the road in Weeks 11 and 12. Those two wins over ranked opponents meant that Oklahoma just had to win out to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff.
After being ranked No. 8 in the final poll, Oklahoma will host a rematch against Alabama in the first round of the College Football Playoff. PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter (FPM) has Oklahoma as a slight underdog in that game, giving them a 48.7% chance of winning and progressing to the semifinal.
If Oklahoma wins, we know they will progress to play Indiana in the Rose Bowl on January 1, 2026. The College Football Playoff does not reseed after each round, meaning that every team has a defined path to the national championship game in Miami.
If Oklahoma faces Indiana, the FPM has them winning that game in 39.9% of simulations, giving them a 19.4% chance of advancing to the semifinal stage.
If Oklahoma prevails in the quarterfinal, it will take on the winner of the quarterfinal game involving the No. 4-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders. In their quarterfinal, Texas Tech will face the winner of No. 5-seeded Oregon Ducks and No. 12-seeded James Madison Dukes.
Among those three teams, Oklahoma’s preference would be the Dukes, whom the FPM gives Indiana an 88.6% chance of beating. However, the more realistic outcome is that it will be the winner of an Oregon vs. Texas Tech matchup. The FPM has Oklahoma winning 46.0% of the time against Oregon (who they beat in the regular season) and 44.2% of the time against Texas Tech.
Overall, the FPM gives the Sooners an 8.8% chance of reaching the National Championship Game in Miami and a 3.9% chance of winning the CFB National Championship.
In the National Championship Game, Indiana could face any team from the other side of the bracket: Georgia (2), Ohio State (3), Ole Miss (6), Texas A&M (7), Miami (10), or Tulane (11). Of those opponents, the FPM has Oklahoma favored against only Tulane. However, they are only slight underdogs in matchups with Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Alabama.
