The NFL draft season always brings heated debates, but one of the more fascinating conversations this cycle centers on two elite edge prospects: Ohio State’s Arvell Reese and Texas Tech’s David Bailey. And according to longtime draft analyst Todd McShay, the answer might not be as straightforward as many assume.
For much of the year, Reese has been viewed as the easy choice. The Ohio State standout has dazzled evaluators with rare traits and eye-popping athletic upside. But McShay recently offered a nuanced take, suggesting the debate between Reese and Bailey is very real inside NFL circles.
NFL Draft Analyst Todd McShay Picks $182K Texas Tech LB Over Arvell Reese
McShay said Reese is a “phenomenal talent” and “something special” — the type of prospect who flashes elite, game-wrecking ability. His versatility at Ohio State only adds to the intrigue. Reese wasn’t just a traditional hand-in-the-dirt pass rusher. He moved all over the formation: lining up at linebacker, standing up on the edge, and even shifting around pre-snap as part of complex defensive schemes.
That do-it-all role showcased his athletic range and football intelligence, but it also leaves room for projection at the next level — and projection can be risky.
McShay pointed out that NFL decision-makers don’t draft on hope, especially when comparing players viewed as closely matched. While Reese’s ceiling may be sky-high, some evaluators see the $182,000 Texas Tech linebacker Bailey as the more polished and reliable pass-rush presence right now. The draft analyst said:
“Some people I’ve talked to in the league think that David Bailey is an absolute star — and I don’t disagree — but maybe have even a higher opinion in terms of his value because of his ability to get to the quarterback.
“Reese is a more phenomenal talent. It’s obvious. Reese is something special. Reese is different. But Reese is a projection. Guys in the league don’t make decisions on hope. Part of it is — and a good part of him is his ability to rush off the edge. I’m hoping he can become that guy because the tape with him at edge is a projection. There’s a lot of enticing stuff there. But Bailey, I see it.”
“some people I’ve talked to in the league think David Bailey is an absolute star, and I don’t disagree but maybe have even a higher opinion in terms of his value.”
Bailey, Texas Tech’s relentless edge defender, made his impact felt in a more traditional way: by consistently terrorizing quarterbacks. His 13.5 sacks ranked second nationally, and he earned a 92.9 PFSN CFB Edge Impact Score, the best in the country. Simply put, Bailey produced.
He thrives as a pure pass rusher. His spin move is devastating, and he has the power to bully offensive tackles, collapsing the pocket and forcing quarterbacks off their spot. While Reese was asked to do more within his scheme, Bailey was asked to hunt, and he did so at an elite level.
That clarity of role can appeal to NFL teams looking for immediate impact. In a league driven by quarterback play, a defender who can consistently generate pressure is a premium asset.
NFL Draft Big Board Perspective
According to the PFSN Consensus Draft Big Board, Reese currently sits as the No. 1 EDGE prospect and the No. 2 overall player in the class. Bailey, meanwhile, ranks as the No. 3 EDGE and No. 11 overall prospect.
Those rankings highlight the balancing act teams must navigate: production versus potential.
Reese represents the tantalizing upside play, a defender whose athletic profile and versatility have drawn lofty comparisons to stars like Micah Parsons. If everything clicks, he could become a franchise-altering defensive weapon.
Bailey, meanwhile, represents proven disruption. His college résumé, advanced metrics, and pass-rush polish suggest a player who may step into the NFL and contribute immediately.
As the NFL Combine approaches and teams finalize their draft boards, this debate will only intensify. Interviews, testing numbers, and scheme fits will all factor into how front offices ultimately separate the two.
What makes this discussion compelling is that both players are viewed as potential stars. Reese may have the higher ceiling in the eyes of some scouts, but Bailey’s production and refined pass-rush toolkit make him far more than a consolation prize.
The draft isn’t just about selecting the “better” player in isolation. It’s about finding the right fit for your system, timeline, and risk tolerance. The $182K Texas Tech linebacker might make more sense for a team seeking a proven pass rusher, while the highly talented Ohio State prospect offers higher upside but more uncertainty.
The draft isn’t just about selecting the “better” player in isolation. It’s about finding the right fit for your system, timeline, and risk tolerance. Bailey might make more sense for a team seeking a proven pass rusher, while the highly talented Ohio State prospect offers higher upside but more uncertainty.
