The Indiana Hoosiers survived a football nail-biter against Penn State in Week 11, and effectively secured their standing in the CFB Playoffs. Here are the updates to the Hoosiers’ playoff percentages in the wake of their latest exhilarating Big Ten victory.
Indiana Football CFB Playoff Chances: Hoosiers Locked into the Big Dance
The Indiana Hoosiers led by a score of 20-10 entering the fourth quarter against Penn State, but eventually found themselves down 24-20 with less than four minutes to go.
With the help of spectacular two-minute play from quarterback Fernando Mendoza — himself a Heisman favorite — and wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr. — who rose up to the challenge in the wake of Elijah Sarratt’s absence — the Hoosiers managed to avoid catastrophe, and hold off the upset-minded Penn State Nittany Lions.
HOOSIERS WIN. pic.twitter.com/8stmWzNs53
— Indiana Football (@IndianaFootball) November 8, 2025
The Hoosiers have now improved their record to 10-0. They’re undefeated in both Big Ten and overall play, and they’ll remain one of the top two teams in the nation alongside Ohio State.
What’s even more important: The Hoosiers have solidified their place in the postseason conversation.
According to the PFSN CFB Playoff Predictor, the Hoosiers had a 99.33% chance to make the CFB Playoffs before their game against Penn State. Now, with a win, they at last have an 100% chance of making the CFB Playoffs.
The Hoosiers have an easy path out of the regular season from this point onward, with a home game against 2-6 Wisconsin, and a road game against 2-7 Purdue. All Indiana has to do is win one of those games, and they’ll lock in a spot in the Big Ten Championship game — presumably against the top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes.
From there, the only remaining issue for Indiana will be regarding what exact seeding they receive in the CFB Playoff. Their best chance of getting a first-round bye is by beating Ohio State, but because the CFB Playoff awards byes to the best four teams in the nation, regardless of conference title status, the Hoosiers could earn a bye, regardless.
A year before Curt Cignetti arrived in Indiana, the Hoosiers were 3-9 and 1-8 in conference play. In his first season, they went 11-2 and made the CFB Playoffs. Now, they’re in position to run the table and compete for a National Championship.
It’s been a historic turnaround, but it hasn’t been utter domination. The Hoosiers also had to win when they faced adversity — like they did against Penn State — and they pulled through when it mattered most. That resolve will matter even more down the line.
