The Indiana Hoosiers put a bow on a successful regular season with their Big Ten Championship Game victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes, but the story does not end there. The Hoosiers now head into the College Football Playoff, where they will aim to translate their Big Ten success into success on a national stage.
Using the PFSN College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Indiana’s playoff scenarios and how they can walk away with a CFB National Championship on January 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
Indiana’s Playoff Chances and Path to the College Football National Championship
- Chance to make CFP Semifinal: 59.5%
- Chance to make the National Championship: 33.0%
- Chance to win the National Championship: 18.0%
Indiana clinched the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoffs with their 13-10 Big Ten Championship Game win over Ohio State. The Hoosiers and Buckeyes headed into Indianapolis as the only two unbeaten teams in the FBS, essentially ensuring that the winner would be seeded first for the playoffs and play in the Rose Bowl game on January 1, 2026.
Indiana will now get a bye through the first round of the College Football Playoff, along with the other three teams that were seeded inside the top four. In theory, that should be an advantage over the team that advances from the first round into the quarterfinal. However, in the inaugural 12-team playoff, all four top seeds lost in the quarterfinals.
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The Hoosiers will face the No. 9-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide in the Rose Bowl after Kalen DeBoer’s team came from behind to defeat the Oklahoma Sooners in an enthralling first-round clash. The College Football Playoff does not reseed after each round, meaning that every team has a defined path to the national championship game in Miami.
The PFSN College Football Playoff Meter gives Indiana a 58.8% chance of making it to the semifinal stage. If Indiana prevails in the quarterfinal, it will take on the winner of the quarterfinal game involving the No. 4-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders. In their quarterfinal, Texas Tech will face the winner of No. 5-seeded Oregon Ducks and No. 12-seeded James Madison Dukes.
Among those three teams, Indiana’s preference would be the Dukes, whom the FPM gives Indiana a 92.2% chance of beating. However, the more realistic outcome is that it will be the winner of an Oregon vs. Texas Tech matchup. The FPM has Indiana winning 56.2% of the time against Oregon (who they beat in the regular season) and 54.5% of the time against Texas Tech.
Overall, the FPM gives the Hoosiers a 33.0% chance of reaching the National Championship Game in Miami and an 18.0% chance of winning the CFB National Championship.
In the National Championship Game, Indiana could face any team from the other side of the bracket: Georgia (2), Ohio State (3), Ole Miss (6), Texas A&M (7), Miami (10), or Tulane (11). Of those opponents, the FPM has Indiana favored against every opponent except Ohio State, which we have seen is closely matched in the Big Ten Championship Game.
