The USF Bulls started the 2025 season with a bang to shake up the race for the Group of Five’s spot in the College Football Playoff, but multiple teams are hot on their tail.
Take a look at the top teams that can claim that spot and the teams that have the best probability to make the postseason ahead of Week 2.
Group of Five College Football Playoff Probability
- Boise State Broncos: 18.7%
- Tulane Green Wave: 18.5%
- Navy Midshipmen: 7.3%
- James Madison Dukes: 7.1%
- UNLV Rebels: 6.8%
- Utah State Aggies: 4.9%
- Memphis Tigers: 3.4%
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: 3.1%
- USF Bulls: 1.9%
- South Alabama Jaguars: 1.9%
USF Bulls
USF put together one of the best wins of the weekend, but its playoff hopes might hinge on the next two games. Road trips to No. 13 Florida and No. 5 Miami likely end in losses, but the Bulls hope to put up enough of a fight for the committee to remember.
Byrum Brown is who you think DJ Lagway is pic.twitter.com/FYTjWPXV7M
— CFBTalkDaily (@CFBTalkDaily) August 28, 2025
Even if they finish 11-2 after losing these two games, it might come down to how close they play those teams. Blowouts certainly damage their resumes, but keeping the games close might give them the highly coveted quality losses their resume needs.
Tulane Green Wave
Tulane took it to Northwestern early and often, and Jon Sumrall’s team is playing with a ton of confidence. They forced five turnovers against the Wildcats, and that defense will play a huge role in their playoff run.
Upcoming games against South Alabama, Duke, and No. 20 Ole Miss could prove challenging, and the Green Wave’s playoff hopes might be erased if they struggle. Winning the American would help, but having multiple losses puts their chances in jeopardy.
James Madison Dukes
The Dukes have a path to the College Football Playoff right in front of them, and they got off to a great start in 2025.
Bob Chesney’s squad received great news ahead of their first game when quarterback Alonza Barnett III was cleared to play. He looked sharp, and they’ll need him to continue that all year.
JUST HOW WE WROTE IT UP.
WELCOME BACK AB3‼️ pic.twitter.com/CJZZBnDNyh
— JMU Football (@JMUFootball) August 30, 2025
Barnett gives the Dukes the best chance to win, and they’ll need him when they take on Louisville Friday, September 5. It’s their biggest test on the schedule, and a win would put them at the top of the Group of Five for a playoff spot.
Navy Midshipmen
Outside of No. 9 Notre Dame, the Midshipmen have no game on their schedule that they can’t win. QB Blake Horvath and the offense looked sharp in their first game, but winning the American will test them. Their performance against the Fighting Irish might also affect their playoff hopes.
If they keep it close with Notre Dame, then the Midshipmen should feel good about getting in the playoff — assuming they win all of their other games. A blowout might make the committee second-guess their worthiness, but they’re not the only team in the conference that must worry about that.
UNLV Rebels
Dan Mullen’s team hasn’t looked pretty, but they’ve won both games so far. With so many new transfers coming to campus, it has become apparent that they need time to gel with one another. Still, the Rebels are unbeaten and have everything in front of them.
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The Mountain West is wide open, and Boise State showed vulnerability against USF. So the Rebels should feel great about their opportunity despite their struggles. If they can find consistency, the wins should rack up, and the consistency should also improve.
Memphis Tigers
Memphis decided it wasn’t time to rebuild, and Ryan Silverfield’s staff brought in transfers to fill a number of key positions. So, despite their losses, the Tigers have their sights set on the CFP and an American title.
There’s only one game that Tigers fans might not feel confident about, and that arrives when Arkansas comes to town in a few weeks. Memphis has to face USF, Tulane, and Navy in conference play, but those are towards the end of the year.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Sign me up for the “Maverick McIvor experience” in the College Football Playoff. While Conference USA most likely isn’t getting this spot, it’s hard to contain my excitement for what the Hilltoppers are doing right now.
The misdirection 🔄🫨
Diving to the corner for 𝙎𝙄𝙓 and adding to a monster day for KD on Saturday
📊 ➜ 5 REC | 113 YDS | 2 TDs#GoTops | @hutchinson_kd pic.twitter.com/trr5EZ85XY
— WKU Football (@WKUFootball) September 1, 2025
McIvor is clearly a solid fit for this offense, and he has already thrown for 706 yards and eight touchdowns. He also has plenty of wide receiver talent, and the schedule isn’t too daunting outside of No. 3 LSU. If anything, it will be a fun run for the die-hard college football fan to enjoy, and anything above that is an added bonus.
Boise State Broncos
It seems odd that Boise State still has good odds to make the CFP after losing in Week 1, but the Broncos’ path seems clear. The Group of Five spot comes down to the winner of the Mountain West, American, and Sun Belt, so they still technically have a chance.
The tough part for Boise State is that they still have to play No. 9 Notre Dame, so at best, they’ll have two losses. The path might be clear now, but that second loss might damage their chances. For now, they’ll need to focus on making good form tackles, as that’s their biggest weakness.
Appalachian State Mountaineers
First-year head coach Dowell Loggains might have something special brewing, but it’s tough to definitively say that after just one game. A win over Charlotte isn’t anything to brag about, but Mountaineers fans are hopeful this is just the beginning.
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Quarterback AJ Swann looked sharp against the 49ers, and his performance will dictate how well this team performs this season. Loggains must navigate his first season in a new role, but so far, everything seems to be going just fine.
South Alabama Jaguars
This would be a stretch, but Major Applewhite’s team has shown that they can exceed expectations in the past.
Winning the Sun Belt won’t be easy, as the depth of the conference is as good as ever. It’s up to new quarterback Bishop Davenport to replace now North Carolina quarterback Gio Lopez, but so far, he looks good.
