In college football, change is constant. Conference realignment, television rights deals, NIL, the transfer portal — there’s an almost endless list of potential shifting structures. The College Football Playoff format itself is now in a state of flux, with changes agreed upon for the coming season, and more for the future in discussion.
How would the changes for the future impact the 2025 season if they were to be implemented now?
How the 2025-2026 College Football Playoff Would Look With Big Ten Proposal
Our latest CFB Playoff projections examine the two proposals on the table and apply our most recent College Football Power Rankinhttps://collegefootballnetwork.com/college-football-power-rankings-may/gs to the format to explore what each could look like and how they differ.
The Big Ten proposal, one which was initially backed by the SEC but has since caused some division in what was a seemingly solid partnership, focuses on multiple automatic qualification bids for each of the Power Four conferences.
The 4-4-2-2-1-3 format gives the Big Ten and SEC four automatic bids to the College Football Playoff. It then gives two automatic places to the ACC and Big 12, one to the highest-ranked Group of Six (it still feels wrong saying this) champion, and the final three places in the 16-team bracket will be filled with “at-large” bids.
The Big Ten (and initially the SEC) favors this format for multiple reasons. Obviously, it guarantees four teams from the conference will play in the postseason. However, the conferences are most excited about how they plan to allocate those automatic bids.
The two teams that play in the conference championship games would receive the first two bids, but the teams finishing from third to sixth in the conference standings would hold “play-in” games to determine the other two programs playing in the postseason.
More games, more exposure, more money.
Below is how the 2025-2026 SEC “play-in” games would look in our rankings-based College Football Playoff projections. As you can see, the change in format would create two appetizing clashes that fans would love to see. The conference could have three of its best games of the year on championship weekend.
- Tennessee Volunteers vs. Georgia Bulldogs
- Ole Miss Rebels vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Below is how the 2025-2026 Big Ten play-in games would look. While creating some intriguing matchups, it perhaps lacks the allure of the SEC play-in bracket. There is also a considerable distance between the four teams in our power rankings.
A one-off game where a 26th-ranked Iowa team takes down sixth-ranked Penn State returns us to the discussion of valuing the regular season.
- Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Indiana Hoosiers
2025-2026 College Football Playoff Projections: First Round
- No. 16 Navy Midshipmen vs. No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes
- No. 15 Kansas State Wildcats vs. No. 2 Clemson Tigers
- No. 14 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 3 Oregon Ducks
- No. 13 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 4 Texas Longhorns
- No. 12 Miami Hurricanes vs. #No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
- No. 10 SMU Mustangs vs. No. 7 Arizona State Sun Devils
- No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 8 South Carolina Gamecocks
In the 4-4-2-2-1-3 format proposed by the Big Ten, Ohio State and Oregon would take that conference’s autobids, with Penn State and Indiana playing themselves into the final 16 teams in these College Football Playoff projections.
The SEC is represented by Texas, South Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama. At the same time, the Big 12 gets Arizona State and Iowa State as automatic bids, with Kansas State securing an at-large spot. The ACC has its two auto bids in Clemson and SMU, but Miami’s ranking earns them an additional seat at the table.
MORE: Free College Football Playoff Predictor 2025-26
Notre Dame completes the at-large bids, and Navy is projected as the highest-ranked Group of Six team. The eight highest-seeded teams earn home passage in Round 1, with the traditional New Year’s Six games hosting the quarterfinals and semifinals before the neutral-site national championship game.
These first-round College Football Playoff projections provide little in the way of potential upsets. Facing Alabama could be dicey for Penn State. Still, as we enter the 2025 season, the Nittany Lions are more set at crucial positions than the Crimson Tide, especially as they return quarterback Drew Allar and “Thunder and Lightning” running back duo Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen.
2025-2026 College Football Playoff Projections: Quarterfinals
- Rose Bowl: No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes
- Sugar Bowl: No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 4 Texas Longhorns
- Orange Bowl: No. 7 Arizona State Sun Devils vs. No. 2 Clemson Tigers
- Cotton Bowl: No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 3 Oregon Ducks
There can be no room for complaint about the value of the quarterfinals in these CFB Playoff projections, with four high-profile matchups featuring teams that all rank inside the top 10 of CSN’s Preseason Power Rankings. Existing contractual obligations tie the Big Ten to the Rose Bowl and the SEC to the Sugar Bowl, with Ohio State and Texas filing into those prestigious bowl games.
Georgia vs. Ohio State is always exceptional value for money, and it shouldn’t be any different here. Yes, there are some relative unknowns at the quarterback position for both teams with Gunner Stockton and Julian Sayin, but they’re strong in the trenches and have game-changers on both sides of the ball. With Caleb Downs and Jeremiah Smith, however, Ohio State is simply more talented.
Get ready for the third installment of Penn State vs. Oregon in two seasons.
The Big Ten frontrunners avoided one another in the 2024 regular season but played out a belter in the Big Ten title game a year ago. They’ll meet on Sept. 27 in Eugene this fall, with home-field advantage perhaps giving the Ducks an edge. That said, this Nittany Lions team has the tools to go toe-to-toe with anything Dan Lanning throws at them, especially if Allar reaches his full potential.
The Orange Bowl has the potential to be the most one-sided of these quarterfinal College Football Playoff projections. Arizona State boasts a great QB-WR tandem in Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson, and the addition of Kanye Udoh offsets the loss of Cam Skattebo somewhat. However, Clemson is stacked from front to back with elite playmakers and should comfortably progress here.
This leaves us with the Sugar Bowl, which is arguably the most difficult matchup to predict. Notre Dame has the best running back in the country in Jeremiyah Love, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Longhorns be a heavily ground-based offense this fall.
Jeremiyah Love is going to be the best RB in the country next season. ☘️
pic.twitter.com/nCwCXMdALJ— Caleb Conrad (@CalebConrad23) May 31, 2025
The Texas defense is elite, which begs the question of whether the Fighting Irish can make an offensive impact while some lost talent hurts their own defensive unit. Against Arch Manning’s mobility and a stacked backfield returning CJ Baxter from injury, the loss of Howard Cross III and Rylie Mills might be felt.
2025-2026 College Football Playoff Projections: Semifinals
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes
- Peach Bowl: No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 2 Clemson Tigers
Our Big Ten proposal-led College Football Playoff projections throw together a repeat of the Week 1 matchup that will also play host to Lee Corso’s final College GameDay appearance. Although our current power rankings suggest that Ohio State should have the beating of the Longhorns in that early-season matchup, especially in Columbus, that might not necessarily be the case come Jan. 9, 2026.
With the Buckeyes’ wide receiver trio of Smith, Carnell Tate, and Brandon Inniss, you could play anyone at quarterback and probably still thrive offensively. However, I think Texas’ defense is strong with the returning Colin Simmons, Anthony Hill Jr., Malik Muhammad (the list could go on), so that they can have the measure of the Ohio State offense.
While the Fiesta Bowl matchup projected here could be electric, the other semifinal between Penn State and Clemson in the Peach Bowl is jam-packed full of intrigue from both a college and NFL Draft perspective.
Clemson’s Cade Klubnik and Penn State’s Allar will be two contenders for QB1 consideration by NFL teams, and a toe-to-toe battle here would be the ultimate test of their composure under pressure at the highest level. With two defenses comprised of some of the best players in the country, there’d be no room for error for either in their pursuit of the ultimate glory.
Which is where Clemson edges it for me. Allar has shown some questionable decision-making with the game on the line, whereas Klubnik is more composed and gets better by the game.
The Tigers’ defensive front of T.J. Parker, Peter Woods, DeMonte Capehart, and incoming transfer Will Heldt is too much to contain, while Avieon Terrell and Sammy Brown can impact all phases of the game.
2025-2026 College Football Playoff National Championship Game Prediction
- No. 4 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 2 Clemson Tigers
The 2025-2026 College Football Playoff National Championship Game, despite all the changes to the format, could be a repeat of a first-round matchup from 2024 if our projections hold true.
Texas ran all over the Tigers last fall, tallying 292 rushing yards and four touchdowns. The ground game accounted for 28 of the Longhorns’ 38 points. It’s a rematch of sorts, but will the result be the same?
Manning offers a more viable threat as a rusher than Quinn Ewers ever did. If Clemson’s defense hasn’t upgraded its stoutness against the run, that could be the storyline of this hypothetical championship game.
However, that 2024 Tigers defense featured a lot of young talent cutting their teeth at the highest level. Plus, the Longhorns lost some of the top offensive line talent to the NFL Draft.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Clemson contain whatever Texas can throw (run) at them. As mentioned previously, the Longhorns’ defense is elite. But when the Tigers wheel out a wide receiver trio of T.J. Moore, Bryant Wesco Jr., and Antonio Williams, with Klubnik distributing the ball at a high level and an experienced OL helping keep the offense moving, Dabo Swinney’s team can prevail.
How the 2025-2026 College Football Playoff Would Look With the 5+11 Proposal
The second proposal currently under consideration for College Football Playoff expansion to 16 teams is a 5+11 format. This is just an extension of the current 5+7 format that will be in use for the upcoming season and comprises the five highest-ranked conference champions with 11 “at-large” bids.
As per the rules change following the initial season of the 12-team format, conference champions aren’t automatically given the top seeds, but all teams are seeded according to the end-of-season rankings. If the final conference champion isn’t within the top 16 programs ranked by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee, they slide into the 16th seed.
With both proposals spurning a reseeding of teams, the top order of the two CFB Playoff projections looks very similar. It’s only at the bottom end of the 16 where there is any significant movement of teams.
Interestingly, the 5+11 format would be detrimental to the Big 12 based on our College Football Power Rankings. They get just one team into the postseason tournament using this iteration, whereas the proposal by the Big Ten would allow them three entrants.
This format also benefits the SEC, which is likely the most significant reason behind a souring of the relationship with the Big Ten.
2025-2026 College Football Playoff Projections: First Round
- No. 16 Navy Midshipmen vs. No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes
- No. 15 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 2 Clemson Tigers
- No. 14 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 3 Oregon Ducks
- No. 13 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 4 Texas Longhorns
- No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
- No. 10 SMU Mustangs vs. No. 7 Arizona State Sun Devils
- No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 8 South Carolina Gamecocks
With the changes to the format allowing 11 “at-large” bids, the SEC would have six teams represented in the 16-team tournament according to these projections. Where Ole Miss and Tennessee don’t make the cut in the Big Ten proposal due to their “play-in” losses, they would fall within the top-ranked teams.
Would that do the conference any good? Well, that’s debatable.
They’d both be road teams in this format, with the Volunteers travelling to Eugene to face Oregon. They’ve only made that journey to the West Coast once, in 2013, where they suffered a 59-14 hammering.
Tennessee has only played Oregon twice, resulting in two significant losses. With a depleted defense, the Ducks might have their way with the Volunteers once more in this scenario.
In the other game for the SEC, the Rebels would head to South Bend to take on Notre Dame. Both teams have inexperienced quarterbacks, and while there’s excitement about Austin Simmons around Oxford, Notre Dame is better set up around its young passer than Ole Miss is. Despite its roster turnover, the Fighting Irish’s defense is better equipped to prevail in this matchup.
Although the 5+11 format doesn’t change the number of teams from the Big Ten in our College Football Playoff projections, the conference is negatively impacted. Where Indiana would be the 13th seed in the 4-4-2-2-1-3 format, they slip to No. 15 here. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter because the Hoosiers would face a Clemson team with a strong national title résumé in this scenario.
2025-2026 College Football Playoff Projections: Quarterfinals
- Rose Bowl: No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes
- Sugar Bowl: No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 4 Texas Longhorns
- Orange Bowl: No. 7 Arizona State Sun Devils vs. No. 2 Clemson Tigers
- Cotton Bowl: No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 3 Oregon Ducks
2025-2026 College Football Playoff Projections: Semifinals
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes
- Peach Bowl: No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 2 Clemson Tigers
2025-2026 College Football Playoff National Championship Game Prediction
- No. 4 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 2 Clemson Tigers
In conclusion, expanding the College Football Playoff format to 16 teams will ensure more games, and with more programs involved in the postseason tournament, perhaps increase interest in the early rounds.
However, history has taught us that it could prove irrelevant to the national title outcome. The best teams should, and usually do, rise to the fore, no matter their journey to get there.
