With the 2025 season finally set to “officially” kick off, the Big Ten will have a significant say in all things postseason: College Football Playoff berths, CFP National Championship appearances, and, of course, a national title.
With the help of our metrics, we provided our very own projections for the entire Big Ten, complete with a projected win-loss regular season record, win-loss conference record, and percentages to win the Big Ten, make the CFP, appear in the CFP title game, and win the CFP championship. Let’s get into it.
Note: Data is rounded to the nearest tenth-decimal point.
18) Purdue Boilermakers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 4.8-7.2
- Projected Big Ten Record: 3.2-5.8
- Big Ten Championship Win Probability: 0.2%
- CFP Probability: 0.4%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0%
The Purdue Boilermakers hired former UNLV head coach Barry Odom to turn the ship around after a 1-11 campaign in 2024.
It’s likely to be a slow turn, and patience is needed, as several of the Boilermakers’ top performers departed via the transfer portal, including tight end Max Klare (Ohio State) and safety Dillon Thieneman (Oregon).
“I feel a deep, deep responsibility to get Purdue football back to winning for the people at Purdue… The urgency to get that done, I think about it every single minute of the day.”
– Barry Odom 🚂 pic.twitter.com/4ofN6pOtJq
— Zach Vogt (@ZachVogt30) August 25, 2025
Our metrics point towards a near five-win season — a four-win improvement and what would be considered a massive success in the first year with Odom at the helm.
17) Wisconsin Badgers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 4.8-7.2
- Projected Big Ten Record: 3.2-5.8
- Big Ten Championship Win Probability: 0.3%
- CFP Probability: 0.7%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0%
While the Wisconsin Badgers may field a better team in 2025 than in 2024, their schedule is brutal.
They’ll travel to the Alabama Crimson Tide before bouts with five Big Ten teams in the preseason AP Poll top 20. That’s not including the Washington Huskies, Iowa Hawkeyes, and Minnesota Golden Gophers, who all could be ranked at some point this season.
There’s potential for a very, very long fall in Madison.
16) Northwestern Wildcats
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.3-6.7
- Projected Big Ten Record: 3.4-5.6
- Big Ten Championship Win Probability: 0.3%
- CFP Probability: 0.9%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0%
The offseason addition of quarterback Preston Stone, formerly of the SMU Mustangs, did little to move the Northwestern Wildcats up the standings, according to our metrics.
They’re again predicted to miss a bowl game and finish below .500 in conference play.
15) Rutgers Scarlet Knights
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.6-6.4
- Projected Big Ten Record: 3.4-5.6
- Big Ten Championship Win Probability: 0.5%
- CFP Probability: 2.8%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.1%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0%
There’s little continuity for the Scarlet Knights’ defense in 2025, placing much of the weight on senior quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis’ shoulders. He’s also losing his top running back, Kyle Monangai.
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If they’re to get to a bowl game this season, it will be because Kaliakmanis took a significant step forward, and the defense came together as a unit.
14) Michigan State Spartans
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.4-6.6
- Projected Big Ten Record: 3.5-5.5
- Big Ten Championship Win Probability: 0.4%
- CFP Probability: 1.4%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.1%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0%
Michigan State Spartans’ new duo of HC Jonathan Smith and QB Aidan Chiles, both coming over from the Oregon State Beavers, was incredibly disappointing in Year 1, finishing with a 5-7 record, and with Chiles never quite looking comfortable.
Unfortunately for them, our metrics point towards a similar outcome in 2025 — potentially putting Smith on the hot seat with no bowl appearances in two seasons.
13) UCLA Bruins
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.2-6.8
- Projected Big Ten Record: 3.6-5.4
- Big Ten Championship Win Probability: 0.5%
- CFP Probability: 1.2%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.1%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0%
We’ll find out real quick if the UCLA Bruins and QB Nico Iamaleava, who came over from the Tennessee Volunteers in the offseason, are a good fit for each other. The Bruins open the season with the Utah Utes, UNLV Rebels, and New Mexico Lobos — far from an easy non-conference slate.
We project them to finish with a 5-7 record, which would be heavily disappointing for such an illustrious program with a well-known passer at the helm.
12) Maryland Terrapins
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.0-6.0
- Projected Big Ten Record: 3.8-5.2
- Big Ten Championship Win Probability: 0.5%
- CFP Probability: 1.9%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.1%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0%
Mystery clouds the Maryland Terrapins’ entering the 2025 season, as at the time of this article, they’ve yet to name a starting quarterback to replace the departed Billy Edwards Jr., who is the Badgers’ starter.
They finished a disappointing 4-8 a season ago and didn’t significantly improve any spot on the roster, as they also lost starting RB Roman Hemby to the Indiana Hoosiers. Contrary to popular belief, our metrics have them making a bowl game and finishing with a two-win uptick, going 6-6. If that happens, it should be considered a win for the Terrapins.
11) Nebraska Cornhuskers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.1-5.9
- Projected Big Ten Record: 4.1-4.9
- Big Ten Championship Win Probability: 0.7%
- CFP Probability: 3.0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.1%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0%
While the defense may take a step back, true sophomore QB Dylan Raiola is as talented as they come. The Cornhuskers helped him out this offseason, adding several playmakers on the perimeter, which should open up all three pass-game levels.
They finished with six wins last regular season, and our metrics predict a similar output.
10) Washington Huskies
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.2-5.7
- Projected Big Ten Record: 4.1-4.9
- Big Ten Championship Win Probability: 1.3%
- CFP Probability: 7.3%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.4%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.2%
The Demond Williams Jr. hype train has been the leading storyline for the Washington Huskies all offseason. The true sophomore-to-be QB finished his freshman season on a very high note, scoring five touchdowns in the Sun Bowl. However, that came in a loss, putting a cap on a six-win season.
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According to our projections, they’re not expected to improve much, once again finishing with a six-win season.
9) USC Trojans
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.3-5.7
- Projected Big Ten Record: 4.5-4.5
- Big Ten Championship Win Probability: 2.0%
- CFP Probability: 8.6%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.5%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.2%
Many talents walked out the door for the USC Trojans this offseason, replaced by young, up-and-coming talent. The head of the snake for the team will be its passing attack of QB Jayden Maiava and WRs Ja’Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon. Both receivers are considered 2026 draft picks.
Last season, with a combination of Miller Moss and Maiava under center, they finished with a 6-6 regular-season record. Now, with Maiava the full-time starter, they hope to improve upon that, something our rankings don’t predict.
8) Minnesota Golden Gophers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.8-5.2
- Projected Big Ten Record: 4.7-4.3
- Big Ten Championship Win Probability: 2.6%
- CFP Probability: 12.5%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.8%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.3%
The Minnesota Golden Gophers lost some talent this offseason, but come into 2025 with hopes of building on their 7-5 regular-season record from last season. Drake Lindsey will be the new quarterback, but talented running back Darius Taylor is back in the mix.
University of Minnesota #Gophers quarterback Drake Lindsey was named to the Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Year Award Watch List today by the Maxwell Football Club. pic.twitter.com/CVn81JEcqU
— Kane Rob (@GophersKaneRob) August 26, 2025
A true bell-cow back, he’s the Golden Gophers’ golden ticket. If they’re to achieve what our metrics say, there is a 12.5% chance of making the College Football Playoff.
7) Iowa Hawkeyes
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.0-5.0
- Projected Big Ten Record: 4.8-4.2
- Big Ten Championship Win Probability: 3.9%
- CFP Probability: 16.6%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 1.5%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.5%
Even with a prolific quarterback coming in, as former South Dakota State Jackrabbits four-year starter Mark Gronowski will take over under center, the Hawkeyes are expected to decline from their 8-4 regular season record in 2024.
That’s likely due to star RB Kaleb Johnson departing for the NFL, but we may see a new type of offense that Iowa hasn’t seen in years: passing success.
6) Michigan Wolverines
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.9-5.1
- Projected Big Ten Record: 4.9-4.1
- Big Ten Championship Win Probability: 2.7%
- CFP Probability: 11.3%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.8%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.3%
True freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood is officially the starter for the Michigan Wolverines, opening up a wide range of possibilities during the 2025 season.
If he underperforms, or, in reality, reveals himself as a normal 18-year-old true freshman, the bottom could fall out for the Wolverines. Conversely, if he excels greatly, they could make their 11.3% chance of making the CFP a reality. Our metrics have them falling right in the middle, finishing just above .500.
5) Illinois Fighting Illini
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.6-4.4
- Projected Big Ten Record: 5.3-3.7
- Big Ten Championship Win Probability: 5.7%
- CFP Probability: 23.2%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 2.4%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.9%
After a successful 10-3 campaign in 2024, capped off with an inspiring victory over the South Carolina Gamecocks in the Citrus Bowl, the Illinois Fighting Illini return a massive amount of their production heading into this season.
Our metrics aren’t nearly as high as the preseason AP Poll, which has Illinois at No. 12. Despite projecting as an 8-4 team, they have over 23% to make the CFP, which would be the first appearance in program history. One thing is for sure, though — HC Bret Bielema has built hype around a program desperate for success beyond bowl victories.
4) Indiana Hoosiers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.0-4.0
- Projected Big Ten Record: 5.4-3.6
- Big Ten Championship Win Probability: 6.4%
- CFP Probability: 25.1%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 3.3%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 1.5%
All HC Curt Cignetti does is win — Google him. Coming off a CFP berth and with a more athletic quarterback this season in California transfer Fernando Mendoza, plus a slew of returning talent, the Indiana Hoosiers should be in a good position to make the playoffs again.
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However, our metrics are particularly low on them, predicting them to drop approximately four games during league play, rendering them unlikely to make the CFP.
3) Penn State Nittany Lions
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.6-3.4
- Projected Big Ten Record: 5.9-3.1
- Big Ten Championship Win Probability: 15.2%
- CFP Probability: 47.7%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 10.6%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 5.5%
The Penn State Nittany Lions are loaded heading into 2025, despite losing top EDGE Abdul Carter to the NFL. The offense should carry the load, with a star-studded quartet of quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and transfer wide receiver Trebor Pena, who was excellent with the Syracuse Orange last year.
After reaching the CFP Semifinal in 2024, the Nittany Lions appear ready to make another run at the national title, of which they have a 5.5% chance of doing so, per our metrics.
2) Oregon Ducks
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.0-3.0
- Projected Big Ten Record: 6.3-2.7
- Big Ten Championship Win Probability: 21.2%
- CFP Probability: 60.8%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 15.9%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 8.7%
Ten Oregon Ducks were drafted in 2025, but HC Dan Lanning reloaded and is walking into this season with yet another talent-heavy roster. EDGE Matayo Uiagalelei and transfers at safety Dillon Thieneman (Purdue) and running back Makai Hughes (Tulane Green Wave) will be the stars, but will new quarterback Dante Moore produce?
Bo Nix 👉 Dillon Gabriel 👉 Dante Moore@YogiRoth tells you why Dante Moore will carry on @oregonfootball‘s elite QB play ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/jkkdryMngz
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) August 26, 2025
That’s the big question for the Ducks, as Moore struggled with UCLA as a true freshman in 2023. If he improves greatly and thrives in offensive coordinator Will Stein’s offense, the sky is the limit for Oregon.
1) Ohio State Buckeyes
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.2-2.7
- Projected Big Ten Record: 6.8-2.2
- Big Ten Championship Win Probability: 35.6%
- CFP Probability: 70.7%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 24.3%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 15.1%
The 2024 national champions, there’s no reason that any other team should top the Ohio State Buckeyes as they try to defend their title — despite losing starting QB Will Howard and a number of key defenders.
True sophomore receiver Jeremiah Smith and junior safety Caleb Downs will dominate on their respective sides of the ball, hoping to lead the Buckeyes to achieve all the goals set out before them.
