Both the Auburn Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners have earned their place in the AP Top 25 rankings after perfect 3-0 starts to the season. This SEC opener features No. 22 Auburn traveling to face No. 11 Oklahoma in a clash that carries significant conference championship implications and national relevance.
Our Auburn vs. Oklahoma prediction features details of head-to-head history, the latest PFSN player and team grades, and a score forecast for the game as Jackson Arnold returns to Norman to face his former team.
Auburn vs. Oklahoma Game Details
- Date: Saturday, September 20th, 2025
- Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, Norman, Oklahoma
- Predicted Weather at Kick: 88°F, Partly Sunny, 12 MPH Winds
- How To Watch: ABC
Auburn vs. Oklahoma Head-to-Head Record
The historical series between Oklahoma and Auburn remains decidedly one-sided, with the Sooners holding a perfect 3-0 record against the Tigers. Two of these encounters came in prestigious Sugar Bowl settings, where Oklahoma claimed victories of 40-22 on January 1, 1972, and 35-19 on January 2, 2017.
Last September’s 27-21 Oklahoma victory in Alabama adds intrigue to Saturday’s matchup, as the quarterback who led that winning effort has since transferred and now suits up for the opposing sideline. This personnel shift creates an additional storyline in what promises to be a compelling SEC opener between two undefeated programs.
Auburn vs. Oklahoma PFSN Grades
PFSN College OFFi
- Auburn (89.1, B+)
- Oklahoma (84.2, B)
PFSN College DEFi
- Auburn (84.7, B)
- Oklahoma (99.9, A+)
PFSN College OLi
- Auburn (90.2, A-)
- Oklahoma (90.3, A-)
PFSN College QBi
- Jackson Arnold, Auburn (81.2, B-)
- John Mateer (91.0, A-)
PFSN College RBi
- Jeremiah Cobb, Auburn (83.2, B)
- Tory Blaylock, Oklahoma (83.1, B)
PFSN College WRi
- Eric Singleton Jr., Auburn (83.4, B)
- Deion Burks, Oklahoma (78.0, C+)
PFSN College TEi
- Brandon Frazier, Auburn (76.8, C)
- Jaren Kanak, Oklahoma (88.7, B+)
PFSN College EDGEi
- Keyron Crawford, Auburn (91.8, A-)
- Taylor Wein, Oklahoma (79.3, C+)
PFSN College DTi
- Malik Blocton, Auburn (76.4, C)
- Jayden Jackson, Oklahoma (82.8, B-)
PFSN College LBi
- Xavier Atkins, Auburn (80.3, B-)
- Owen Heinecke, Oklahoma (81.5, B-)
PFSN College CBi
- Kayin Lee, Auburn (76.6, C)
- Jacobe Johnson, Oklahoma (84.3, B)
PFSN College SAFi
- Champ Anthony, Auburn (88.0, B+)
- Jaydan Hardy, Oklahoma (81.2, B-)
Auburn vs. Oklahoma Prediction
Both Oklahoma and Auburn will benefit significantly from how their schedules have played out. With Oklahoma’s win over Michigan and Auburn’s win over Baylor, both teams have faced formidable non-conference opponents that have prepared them for battle. Exposed some weaknesses, allowed them to show their strengths, and overall, it is a much better result than going straight into the arena after playing FCS schools (looking at you, Penn State and Indiana).
The Michigan game put Oklahoma’s solid defense on the map. They were able to stifle the true freshman phenom, Bryce Underwood. According to TruMedia, Underwood finished nine of 24 for 142 yards and was sacked once. While Justice Haynes performed well on the ground, 60% of his rushing yards came on one breakaway touchdown, already down 14-0.
As a whole, Michigan ranked 85th in rushing EPA (expected points added) against Oklahoma despite its current season ranking being 21st. This is particularly important because the Sooners now face an Auburn rushing attack that ranks fifth in the FBS in EPA. The second aspect to consider is how often Oklahoma can force Auburn into passing downs.
The Sooners currently rank second in the nation in percentage of plays run on third downs at 24.8%, showing that they are incredibly talented at winning early downs. Not only this, but they also rank number one in the nation in third/fourth down conversion rate allowed at an absurd 20%. These kinds of stats are precisely the reason Oklahoma’s defensive impact score at PFSN is a 99.9, the best score since 2019 when we started tracking.
With that being said, the question becomes how Jackson Arnold and his talented receiving core will handle third and long situations when an Oklahoma pass-rush that ranks fourth in the nation in pressure rate and 15th in blitz rate is coming at them? Thus far, Auburn ranks 76th in EPA under pressure versus 15th when not under pressure. The same jarring splits appear with their 100th ranking when blitzed and 12th when not.
Needless to say, the Tigers will have to win this game with a strong run game, effective ball control, and solid defense. That’s where the Baylor-Auburn game tells me that might not happen. Baylor lost by two scores but managed 24 points on over 400 yards passing and three touchdowns.
Sawyer Robertson went 10 of 15 for 188 yards and a touchdown against Auburn when in cover three that week, their most used coverage. Luckily for Auburn, Baylor ranks 16th in passing EPA against cover three this season, whereas Oklahoma ranks 65th. This might not be as exploitable a matchup.
So the final piece to the puzzle becomes how well Auburn is at controlling the pace of the game. Auburn ranks 66th in time of possession and 68th in seconds per play. This suggests they haven’t necessarily needed to control the ball for much and that they are about average in pace of play. So then we can look at Auburn’s ability to play effectively without turning the ball over.
Auburn is fourth in rushing success rate and 14th in passing success rate, suggesting that they are very efficient and consistent. (LONG BREATH)… Finally, we turn to who starts games better. Auburn and Oklahoma rank 27th and 28th, respectively, in offensive EPA on scripted plays.
My final prediction: Auburn can control this game through a consistent rushing attack and lots of cover three defensively. If at any point Auburn struggles on first or second down (10th in EPA on first, 63rd on second), then Oklahoma will have a very significant advantage.
My guess is that, like Michigan, Auburn’s ground game struggles early, and Oklahoma can take advantage with a monster pass rush, which leads to this game going to the Sooners.
If this analysis didn’t convince you, I’ll leave you with a wise callout from OhItsOklahoma on Twitter:
Prediction: Oklahoma 28, Auburn 17
