The Alabama Crimson Tide had a rough start and end of the 2025 College Football Season, but a strong middle of the season gave them enough capital to make it into the College Football Playoff. The Crimson Tide enters the playoff as a somewhat controversial “at-large” selection after losing in the SEC Championship Game, but still getting in ahead of Notre Dame, which has not lost since Week 2.
Using the PFSN College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Alabama’s playoff scenarios and how they can walk away with a CFB National Championship on January 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
Alabama’s Playoff Chances and Path to the College Football National Championship
- Chance to make CFP Semifinal: 21.1%
- Chance to make the National Championship: 9.9%
- Chance to win the National Championship: 4.5%
Alabama’s path to the College Football Playoff is an intriguing one. After losing their opening game to FSU, they went on an unbeaten run until coming unstuck against the Oklahoma Sooners in Week 12. However, Alabama’s strong middle of the season saw them make the SEC Championship Game following an Iron Bowl win in Week 14. Despite losing to Georgia in Atlanta, Alabama had banked enough capital to earn a playoff spot.
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After being placed No. 9 in the final rankings, Alabama faced a rematch of a game they’d already lost this season, against the Oklahoma Sooners. After falling behind early and seemingly doomed to history repeating itself, the Crimson Tide rallied to a 34-24 victory and booked a spot in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal.
They will now face Indiana in the Rose Bowl on January 1, 2026. The College Football Playoff does not reseed after each round, meaning that every team has a defined path to the national championship game in Miami.
In a matchup between Alabama and Indiana, the FPM has the Crimson Tide winning that game in 41.2% of simulations, giving them a 21.1% chance of advancing to the semifinal stage.
If Alabama prevails in the quarterfinal, it will take on the winner of the quarterfinal game involving the No. 4-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders. In their quarterfinal, Texas Tech will face the winner of No. 5-seeded Oregon Ducks and No. 12-seeded James Madison Dukes.
Among those three teams, Alabama’s preference would be the Dukes, whom the FPM gives Indiana an 89.2% chance of beating. However, the more realistic outcome is that it will be the winner of an Oregon vs. Texas Tech matchup. The FPM has Alabama winning 47.3% of the time against Oregon (who they beat in the regular season) and 45.5% of the time against Texas Tech.
Overall, the FPM gives the Crimson Tide a 9.9% chance of reaching the National Championship Game in Miami and a 4.5% chance of winning the CFB National Championship.
In the National Championship Game, Alabama could face any team from the other side of the bracket: Georgia (2), Ohio State (3), Ole Miss (6), Texas A&M (7), Miami (10), or Tulane (11). Of those opponents, the FPM has Alabama favored against Tulane, and Texas A&M, with a matchup against Ole Miss being a 50-50 matchup by our numbers.
