The Big Ten is at the forefront of a new era of college football. The biggest conference (by number) is a prominent voice in shaping the direction of the sport’s future and has provided the last two national champions. Can the Big Ten triple up as title winners, and who will lead the charge in the conference this fall?
Our 2025 Big Ten football schedule projection uses the PFSN College Football Playoff Predictor to simulate the entire 2025 campaign, complete with final standings, a Big Ten Championship Game prediction, and week-by-week results. Let’s get into it.
Big Ten Championship Game Frontrunners: Oregon, Penn State
Could we see a repeat of the 2024 Big Ten Championship Game in the 2025 college football season? Our College Football Playoff Predictor certainly thinks so, pitting the 11-1 Oregon Ducks against a Penn State Nittany Lions outfit also projected to rack up 11 wins during the upcoming campaign. Is that realistic? Despite an extremely competitive conference, yes, it’s a distinct possibility.
James Franklin’s Nittany Lions team is arguably in the best shape in all of college football, not just the Big Ten. Several players spurned the opportunity to enter the 2025 NFL Draft and opted to return to University Park, Pa., in an attempt to build on a 2024 campaign that saw them register the most conference wins in almost a decade, but in which they still fell short of expectations.
Penn State is in a unique situation atop the Big Ten. As every team around them seeks offseason answers at the quarterback situation, the Nittany Lions return one of the top passers in the country, Drew Allar. With an 83.5 (B) PFSN College QB+ grade, he ranked 10th in the 2024 campaign and ranks third among all returning college football quarterbacks for the 2025 season.
The return of the “Thunder and Lightning” running back duo of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton is just as crucial to Penn State’s success in the Big Ten. Meanwhile, Franklin dipped into the transfer portal this offseason to fix one of the biggest woes of last season: the wide receiver room. Kyron Hudson, Devonte Ross, and Trebor Peña are a legitimate pass-catching arsenal.
With the departure of Abdul Carter, defense might be an Achilles heel for a team with the seventh-highest PFSN Defense+ grade a year ago (88.77, B+). That said, Dani Dennis-Sutton is set to be the next ferocious Penn State pass rusher, while Zane Durant might be one of the top interior defensive linemen in the country. Capturing Amare Campbell was a significant offseason move.
The Big Ten schedule provides some obstacles to overcome. Facing the Indiana Hoosiers will be tough, but the matchup is in Beaver Stadium, while a trip to Columbus, Ohio, has the potential to derail their journey to the championship game. However, our College Football Playoff Predictor has them passing both tests but falling to the team that denied them a conference title in 2024: Oregon.
The Ducks are currently the third favorite to win the Big Ten, with odds of +290 from DraftKings Sportsbook. Yet, there are plenty of reasons to believe that Dan Lanning’s team can push on and repeat the success of their inaugural campaign in the conference.
The question marks over their ability to repeat start (and end) with the succession plan at quarterback. After Bo Nix rejuvenated his career in Eugene, Ore., and Dillon Gabriel established himself as a college football record-setter, the Ducks will start an unproven, inexperienced quarterback for the first time since Justin Herbert took the reins during the disappointing 4-8 2016 season.
Dante Moore endured a baptism of fire with the UCLA Bruins in 2023, earning a 67.6 (D+) College QB+ grade and completing just 53.5% of his passes for 1,610 yards and 11 touchdowns. He threw more interceptions than touchdowns in 33% of his appearances. Yet, he spent 2024 learning the Oregon offense and was once a five-star recruit as a four-year high school starter.
Moore will benefit from a stellar offensive line. Although they lost both starting tackles this offseason, Oregon dipped into the transfer portal to recruit three starters. They also return one of the top linemen in the country, Iapani Laloulu, and the hyper-experienced Matthew Bedford. Protection and paving the way for new running back Makhi Hughes can give Ducks fans confidence.
The Big Ten provided four of the top 10 units in our 2024 College Defense+ metric, and the importance of dominance on that side of the ball can’t be understated. Oregon earned an 86.81 (B) grade, which ranked 12th in the country last fall; despite some turnover from a year ago, they could be even better during the 2025 college football campaign.
The Ducks boast some of the most impactful playmakers in the country. Bryce Boettcher paced the team in tackles a year ago, and his ferocious brand of football sets the tone. His combination with Devon Jackson and Teitum Tuioti makes one of the top linebacker units in the country. That’s before we even get to defensive end Matayo Uiagalelei, arguably the best pass rusher in the country.
Matayo Uiagalelei. Very few guys are better reactive athletes than proactive athletes. Uiagalelei might think a bit too much in proactive rushing situations, which makes him a bit clunky.
But when he’s following the football, he’s super impressive. pic.twitter.com/uBifwPs9Zd
— Dalton Miller (@DaltonBMiller) June 22, 2025
Lanning helped boost his unit from the front to the back by recruiting at a high level in traditional forms and the transfer portal. Bear Alexander plugs a need up front, Theran Johnson steps in at cornerback, and Dillon Thieneman should establish himself as one of the best safeties in the country after tallying 210 tackles, six interceptions, and seven tackles for loss in two seasons with the Purdue Boilermakers.
Unlike Penn State, Oregon avoids Ohio State in the regular season. The Ducks only face two teams that are ranked in the preseason, with home-field advantage over Indiana. The Sept. 27 clash with Penn State is the big one, although a trip to Iowa City, Iowa, in early November is identified as a potential stumbling block by our College Football Playoff Predictor.
The Contenders: Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana
While our Big Ten projections throw together a repeat of the 2024 title game, the list of contenders showcases how competitive and close this conference is. Let’s not forget that Ohio State failed to reach Indianapolis but won a national championship last fall. The Buckeyes are on the outside looking in here, with a 9-3 overall record, but just one game back in conference play with a 7-2 Big Ten record.
As is common with teams that win a national title, the Buckeyes’ roster has been decimated from a unit that provided the highest graded offense (90.35, A-) and defense (94.4, A-) a year ago. They return the best offensive player in the country (Jeremiah Smith) and one of the best defensive players (Caleb Downs) in college football, but there are question marks around them.
Who steps up to replace the production of JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, plus the leadership of the latter? Who emerges at the front of the running back room with two 1,000+ yard rushers removed by the NFL Draft? How will the offensive line mesh after losing key pieces, and what of Julian Sayin, the highly touted passing prospect who steps into Will Howard’s substantial shoes?
Of all the top teams in the country, Ohio State probably has more questions hanging over its 2025 campaign. While there’s confidence in Ryan Day to find the answers, the Buckeyes can’t afford to hesitate in discovering their identity. A Week 1 clash with the Texas Longhorns is one of four against preseason-ranked teams. Penn State is a potential Big Ten thorn in the side.
Our College Football Playoff Predictor also throws the Illinois Fighting Illini out as a stumbling block for the Buckeyes, and that might cause some raised eyebrows. After all, Ohio State has won the last eight encounters between the two teams, stretching back to 2008. Yet, the two haven’t met since 2017, and there’s something popping in Champaign, Ill., right now.
Like Penn State, Illinois is another Big Ten team buoyed by the return of its starting quarterback. Luke Altmyer helped guide the Fighting Illini to their first 10-win season since 2021 last fall and is a top-15 returning quarterback, according to our College QB+ metric (80.3, B-). He’s a consistent force with a good arm who led all Big Ten passers with a 3.7 touchdown-to-interception ratio a year ago.
While Altmyer loses two of his top pass catchers, Illinois returns nearly all of its starting offensive line snaps from last year, giving the quarterback an experienced foundation to play behind and paving a pathway for an Aidan Laughery breakout as the lead rusher. The most crucial parts of a defense that allowed just 21.7 points per game (31st) are also back, helping Bret Bielema’s team emerge with a 10-2 overall record in our predictions.
If you’re looking for a surprise team to emerge in the Big Ten this fall, you might also want to consider the Minnesota Golden Gophers. We might not be looking at the highs of the 2019 campaign, but P.J. Fleck’s team is on the ascent after a decent 2024 campaign. Our latest predictions place the Gophers fifth in the conference, with nine overall and six Big Ten wins.
Regardless of shifts due to realignment or the changing approach to how the game is played, Big Ten football will always have its heart in the ground game. There aren’t many programs with a better one-two running back punch than Minnesota, who pair the returning Darius Taylor with former Marshall Thundering Herd standout A.J. Turner to form a nightmare for opposition defenses.
The Golden Gophers also have the closest thing to Travis Hunter this year in safety Koi Perich. A monster in the secondary who led the Big Ten in interceptions last fall as a freshman, he also returned kicks and punts, and is set to play some offense in 2025. They’re talented, well-coached, and have a schedule that offers plenty of winnable games.
For the first time since 2019, the Iowa Hawkeyes had an offense that featured inside the top 50% of FBS teams last fall (76.51, C), according to our College Offense+ metric. The grade might not seem that strong, but it’s a significant step in the right direction and a foundation for another leap in the second year with Tim Lester serving as offensive coordinator.
Leading rusher and All-American Kaleb Johnson is gone, but the Iowa Hawkeyes have their first legitimate quarterback since Nate Stanley arrived in the form of Mark Gronowski. The defense is always strong and was a top-25 unit according to our College Defense+ metric last fall (83.24, B). Ethan Hurkett and Aaron Graves are ones to watch on the defensive front.
Will it be enough to position themselves near the top of the conference? The Hawkeyes haven’t beaten a ranked team since October 2021, when they knocked off No. 4 Penn State at home. There’s a good chance that the Iowa State Cyclones will be ranked when the two meet on Sept. 6, but our College Football Playoff Predictor sees them break the drought against Indiana.
Speaking of the Hoosiers, can they repeat the record-setting season they just enjoyed in 2024? With a first-ever 11-win season and an unprecedented Big Ten record, Curt Cignetti has set a ridiculously high bar for the program to clear in 2025.
The roster for this season is a delightful mix of returning talent and exciting transfer portal acquisitions. Elijah Sarratt should become a household name this fall, and Omar Cooper Jr. and Jonathan Brady give new quarterback Fernando Mendoza a talented supporting cast at wide receiver. Pat Coogan and Zen Michalski also bolster the offensive line.
NOBODY’S STOPPING ELIJAH SARRATT 🔥
ALL the way down for an @IndianaFootball TD! pic.twitter.com/bJu9fxkT3r
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) December 1, 2024
The defense also returns key contributors like Mikail Kamara, Aiden Fisher, and D’Angelo Ponds, all former Group of Five playmakers who thrived in the first Power Four action. Yet, our College Football Playoff Predictor projects four defeats in Big Ten play this fall, with road trips to Oregon, Iowa, and Penn State proving problematic in pursuit of another playoff outing.
The Middle of the Pack: USC, Washington, Michigan, Maryland
Was a difficult first season in the Big Ten just a learning curve or a statement on where the USC Trojans stand in their new surroundings? Lincoln Riley’s team managed just four conference wins a year ago, and while they’re projected to hit five wins within the Big Ten, they’re still very much a team with a middle-of-the-pack outlook ahead of the 2025 college football campaign.
The wide receiver room holds mustard against most in the country, with Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane joined by Boise State Broncos standout Prince Strachan. However, their upside is limited by an offensive line with some holes and a quarterback in Jayden Maiava who is talented but only registered the 110th-ranked College QB+ grade (72.0, C-) a year ago.
Jedd Fisch took on an almost impossible situation a year ago, inheriting a depleted roster amid a conference shift. The Washington Huskies labored to a 4-5 record, but still recorded a top-50 College Offense+ (80.35, B-) and College Defense+ (79.4, C+) grade. The next step is converting those efficiencies into tangible results in the Big Ten.
There are some winnable games on the schedule, and for the most part, they’re projected to win them. That said, a predicted defeat to the Rutgers Scarlet Knights showcases the peril of their cross-coast endeavors.
Demond Williams Jr., Jonah Coleman, and Denzel Boston are an enticing offensive trio that should bolster a unit that graded well but struggled to score last fall. Avoiding Penn State is huge, but ties with Ohio State, Illinois, Oregon, and even Michigan give the Huskies little margin for error.
Speaking of the Wolverines, what does 2025 have in store for Sherrone Moore? We know for a fact that he’ll take a suspension early in the season, but that shouldn’t be too much of an imposition against the Central Michigan Chippewas. The schedule, outside of a non-conference encounter with the Oklahoma Sooners and “The Game,” isn’t too intimidating.
Yet, our College Football Playoff Predictor sets the line at six wins, despite DraftKings Sportsbook making them the fourth-favorite with +850 odds to win the conference. The defense is talented enough, but there are sufficient concerns over an offense led by a true freshman quarterback in Bryce Underwood, without an established ground game, to limit their potential.
The Bottom 8: Maryland, Michigan State, UCLA, Rutgers, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin
The Maryland Terrapins (and Mike Locksley) might be saved by a schedule that doesn’t feature Penn State, Ohio State, or Oregon and is light enough out of conference to hit six wins. Both scoring offense and defense finished outside the top 100, and the Terps might need to lean on their four-star true freshman quarterback and influx of transfer receivers to rectify that issue.
The first year under Jonathan Smith didn’t see the Michigan State Spartans make the expected jump. With road trips to Iowa and Indiana, tough matchups at home against Michigan and Penn State, they might struggle to take that next step in Year 2. Aidan Chiles is a highly talented quarterback with some scintillating weapons at his disposal, but their chances of success will ride or die on a defense with a mediocre 74.34 grade from 2024.
For a three-game stretch as October turned into November last fall, the UCLA Bruins looked like they might have turned a corner in Year 1 under DeShaun Foster. Yet, they ended with a 5-7 overall record and just those three Big Ten wins, and the schedule gives them little hope of improving. They’ll hope Nico Iamaleava gives the offense a spark, but in reality, he graded only just below outgoing quarterback Ethan Garbers last fall.
Greg Schiano led Rutgers to its highest Big Ten win total in more than a decade a year ago, and the program loaded up on some of the top Group of Five talent available in the portal to continue its momentum build. However, there’s a brutal gauntlet to run with Iowa and Minnesota early in the year, Oregon in mid-October, and Illinois, Ohio State (on the road), and Penn State to close.
Nebraska got off to a hot start a year ago, winning five of the first six games, including two in the Big Ten. Yet, against ranked opponents, the Cornhuskers floundered, and their West Coast trip (at USC) resulted in a defeat. Although they made some nice acquisitions during the offseason (Dane Key, Rocco Spindler, Marques Watson-Trent), a carbon copy (or worse) could be in order in 2025.
After surprising in 2023, the Northwestern Wildcats slumped in 2024, receiving their second-lowest College Offense+ grade since 2019. The program brings in former SMU Mustangs quarterback Preston Stone to man the offense, but he’s coming off a season where he was benched. Xavior Gray was an impressive portal grab, but a challenging schedule (four ranked teams plus Tulane out of conference) limits their competitiveness in 2025.
Barry Odom arrives in West Lafayette, Ind., as a man on a mission to transform the Purdue Boilermakers. The offseason saw the program add as many as 18 starters from the transfer portal and a raft of depth pieces. Those will take time to gel, and with USC, Notre Dame, and Illinois in their first five games, wins might be hard to come by early. They also face Michigan and Ohio State in successive November weeks, and Indiana to end the year.
Luke Fickell heads into 2025 with the pressure firmly on after slipping to a 5-7 campaign last fall. The bad news? It could be even worse this season. The Wisconsin Badgers have six teams on the schedule that begin the year ranked, including a trip to Tuscaloosa, Ala., in out-of-conference play. Billy Edwards Jr. brings Big Ten experience to the quarterback room, but the roster offers little to believe a substantial transformation is on the cards.
2025 Big Ten Football Schedule, Week 3
- Oregon 30, Northwestern 14
- USC 31, Purdue 13
2025 Big Ten Football Schedule, Week 4
- Illinois 33, Indiana 14
- Iowa 27, Rutgers 16
- Maryland 36, Wisconsin 21
- Michigan 31, Nebraska 13
- Michigan State 20, USC 35
2025 Big Ten Football Schedule, Week 5
- Rutgers 14, Minnesota 27
- USC 17, Illinois 30
- UCLA 23, Northwestern 30
- Ohio State 28, Washington 13
- Indiana 20, Iowa 33
- Oregon 27, Penn State 10
2025 Big Ten Football Schedule, Week 6
- Penn State 31, UCLA 17
- Wisconsin 19, Michigan 30
- Washington 30, Maryland 17
- Minnesota 28, Ohio State 38
- Michigan State 36, Nebraska 21
- Illinois 37, Purdue 23
2025 Big Ten Football Schedule, Week 7
- Rutgers 39, Washington 27
- UCLA 27, Michigan State 37
- Purdue 24, Minnesota 38
- Ohio State 13, Illinois 23
- Northwestern 16, Penn State 33
- Nebraska 14, Maryland 27
- Michigan 14, USC 29
- Iowa 10, Wisconsin 23
- Indiana 25, Oregon 37
2025 Big Ten Football Schedule, Week 8
- Nebraska 24, Minnesota 35
- Washington 27, Michigan 10
- Purdue 17, Northwestern 27
- Penn State 23, Iowa 10
- Oregon 34, Rutgers 24
- Ohio State 38, Wisconsin 21
- Michigan State 16, Indiana 27
- Maryland 27, UCLA 38
2025 Big Ten Football Schedule, Week 9
- Illinois 32, Washington 19
- Michigan 40, Michigan State 25
- Minnesota 15, Iowa 28
- Northwestern 13, Nebraska 23
- Rutgers 17, Purdue 34
- UCLA 23, Indiana 40
- Wisconsin 10, Oregon 24
2025 Big Ten Football Schedule, Week 10
- Indiana 30, Maryland 10
- Michigan State 20, Minnesota 38
- Penn State 34, Ohio State 21
- Purdue 21, Michigan 10
- Rutgers 15, Illinois 28
- USC 10, Nebraska 28
2025 Big Ten Football Schedule, Week 11
- Indiana 14, Penn State 31
- Maryland 21, Rutgers 38
- Nebraska 26, UCLA 36
- Northwestern 17, USC 29
- Ohio State 39, Purdue 27
- Oregon 14, Iowa 28
- Washington 40, Wisconsin 27
2025 Big Ten Football Schedule, Week 12
- UCLA 13, Ohio State 31
- Wisconsin 14, Indiana 24
- Purdue 16, Washington 31
- Penn State 28, Michigan State 17
- Minnesota 20, Oregon 39
- Michigan 20, Northwestern 10
- Maryland 40, Illinois 23
- Iowa 33, USC 13
2025 Big Ten Football Schedule, Week 13
- Nebraska 23, Penn State 38
- Minnesota 34, Northwestern 24
- Washington 17, UCLA 30
- USC 14, Oregon 27
- Rutgers 23, Ohio State 37
- Michigan State 30, Iowa 14
- Michigan 39, Maryland 19
- Illinois 29, Wisconsin 17
2025 Big Ten Football Schedule, Week 14
- Iowa 40, Nebraska 23
- Oregon 24, Washington 10
- Wisconsin 13, Minnesota 24
- UCLA 19, USC 31
- Penn State 39, Rutgers 21
- Ohio State 24, Michigan 13
- Northwestern 13, Illinois 30
- Maryland 37, Michigan State 27
- Indiana 31, Purdue 21
