Amidst a period of uncertainty for the conference, two teams from the Atlantic Coast Conference reached the College Football Playoff last fall. Will the Clemson Tigers and SMU Mustangs be the cream of the crop once more in 2025? Who else can challenge in the ACC, and what happened to the North Carolina Tar Heels in their first season under Bill Belichick?
Our 2025 ACC football schedule projection uses the PFSN College Football Playoff Predictor to simulate the entire 2025 campaign, complete with final standings, an ACC Championship Game prediction, and week-by-week results. Let’s get into it.
ACC Championship Game Frontrunners: Clemson, SMU
Clemson and SMU did battle in the 2024 ACC Championship Game, providing fans with a classic that ultimately allowed both teams to gain a place in the College Football Playoff. Our early ACC projections forecast a repeat of the title game, with the 11-1 Tigers facing the 9-3 Mustangs. As much as things stay the same, they also change, with two very different paths to a Dec. 6 date at Bank of America Stadium.
In an era of transfer portal prowess and wanton NIL spending, Dabo Swinney has been met with detractors and disrespect as he walks his own path through uncertainty and chaos. The 2024 season saw several struggles, but the program still won the ACC title and reached the College Football Playoff.
They had a top-25 offense (81.64 PFSN College Offense+ grade) and a top-35 defense (80.43 PFSN College Defense+ grade), with a starting lineup comprised of several true freshmen and sophomores. That youth gained experience last fall while honing their craft in live-game action, giving Clemson a 2025 roster that is brimming with talent on both sides of the ball.
Cade Klubnik is an experienced hand at the wheel of a talented offense, returning as one of the top quarterbacks in the nation. Antonio Williams, T.J. Moore, and Bryant Wesco Jr. give the Tigers one of the most dangerous pass-catching triplets outside of Columbus, Ohio, while the offensive line gives Clemson its oldest and most experienced players where you want them the most.
For my money, there isn’t a more terrifying defense in all college football this fall. Swinney has replicated the blueprint for success that powered his early tenure. T.J. Parker, Peter Woods, and DeMonte Capehart lead from the defensive front.
Sammy Brown is only a sophomore, but he could be one of the best linebackers in the country. Avieon Terrell is more than a nostalgic trip down family name memory lane. He’s the real deal at cornerback.
Meanwhile, SMU surprised almost everybody with its undefeated conference slate and run to the ACC Championship Game last fall, especially after a dicey start in out-of-conference play. Opening the season with a QB1A and QB1B philosophy backfired, but once Rhett Lashlee put the ball firmly in Kevin Jennings’ hands, the program prospered, and the quarterback’s return offers 2025 confidence.
Unlike Clemson, however, SMU has to deal with several impactful departures as it looks to navigate a trickier ACC schedule. A trip to Memorial Stadium in mid-October to face the Tigers puts the prospect of a repeat undefeated regular season campaign in jeopardy, with games against Louisville and Miami (FL) also laced with hazard (although they beat the Cardinals in 2024).
On offense, the loss of leading rusher Brashard Smith and top pass catcher Roderick Daniels Jr. is a blow to a top-30 unit from 2024 (80.77, B-). However, Lashlee added some talented freshmen pass catchers, bolstered the offensive line and running back room in the transfer portal, and the Mustangs welcome back star tight end RJ Maryland after a missed season due to injury.
There’s a similar story defensively. SMU boasted a top-20 unit (85.37, B) a year ago, but lost tackle-for-loss leader Jahfari Harvey, star defensive lineman Elijah Roberts, and do-it-all linebacker Kobe Wilson this offseason. However, they snagged highly-regarded East Carolina linebacker Zakye Barker among a host of portal additions, while bringing back scintillating safety duo Isaiah Nwokobia and Ahmaad Moses.
There might be some obstacles along the way, but our ACC predictions forecast a 6-2 conference campaign that takes SMU to the title game again. Meanwhile, Clemson is expected to steamroll its ACC schedule while dropping just one game all year. Their paths to Charlotte, N.C., have changed for 2025, but will the ACC Championship Game result stay the same? It’s hard to bet against the Tigers doubling up on the Mustangs this fall.
The Contenders: Syracuse, North Carolina, Miami (FL)
Behind Clemson and SMU in our 2025 ACC predictions is a small group with a 5-3 ACC record. Each of the three teams has real potential to challenge at the top, but their flawed elements limit their projection to falling just short of the ACC Championship Game.
First up is the Syracuse Orange, who enjoyed a sensational turnaround season in the first campaign under Fran Brown. The former Georgia coach rejuvenated the program, making it a legitimate contender with a delicious blend of culture, recruiting, transfer portal acquisitions, and top-tier coaching.
Yet, the three key elements of a top-20 graded offense (83.06, B) are gone with Kyle McCord and LeQuint Allen in the NFL, and Trebor Pẽna pivoting in the portal to Penn State. There’s also a significant turnover on defense, headlined by linebacker Marlowe Wax not returning to the program. He only played in eight games last fall, but don’t underestimate his influence across the team.
While there is talent to step up and replace most of the outgoing players, the biggest concern hanging over Syracuse heading into 2025 is at the quarterback position. McCord’s development into one of the top passers in the ACC was impressive, and transfer passer Rickie Collins will have to quickly find his feet after seeing little action in two seasons with the LSU Tigers.
Did the Miami Hurricanes miss their shot at returning to the postseason party after falling at the final hurdle last fall? If an insane playmaker like Cam Ward can’t get them to the ACC Championship Game and College Football Playoff, who can?
Mario Cristobal has placed all his eggs in the Carson Beck basket, landing one of the top quarterbacks available in the transfer portal for the second successive season. The former Georgia Bulldogs passer earned an 81.4 (B-) grade for his efforts in an injury-shortened 2024 campaign, a significant drop-off from the 90.1 (A-) grade Ward conjured up for the Hurricanes last fall.
With five pass catchers that tallied 500 yards or more in the Hurricanes’ 10-2 ACC campaign gone, there’s a notable dip in surrounding talent for Beck to play with, too. The defense returns key playmakers Francisco Mauigoa and Rueben Bain Jr., while the secondary got a significant makeover via the transfer portal. Those additions must improve a unit that shipped 25.3 points per game last fall.
Miami avoids Clemson in conference play, which is a boost, but with challenging assignments against SMU, Louisville, and Syracuse combined with an out-of-conference slate featuring the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Florida Gators, there is a real possibility that the Hurricanes have a five-win ACC ceiling and are staring down the barrel of an 8-4 overall campaign.
For UNC, I’m not 100% sure anybody knows exactly what to expect from Belichick’s first foray into college football coaching.
Our College Football Playoff Predictor doesn’t factor in one of the most bizarre offseasons (off the field) we can remember around the North Carolina Tar Heels program. However, it’s about as far removed from the military-grade professionalism the football world has always seen from the former New England Patriots head coach.
There were also some legitimate footballing questions about how the 2025 Tar Heels would perform. Davion Gause, Caleb Hood, and Charleston French are all talented and capable running backs, but none strike fear into the heart of a defense like the departed Omarion Hampton, who was essentially the entire North Carolina offense during the 6-6 regular season last fall.
His loss can’t be underestimated when projecting the North Carolina season, especially with freshman Bryce Baker looking like the starter under center for most of the offseason. However, the arrival of talented dual-threat quarterback Gio Lopez from the South Alabama Jaguars casts a more positive light on their prospects for success this fall.
After allowing 28.1 points per game and grading in the bottom half of the ACC (76.65, C) in 2024, Belichick made multiple transfer portal moves to upgrade the defense this offseason. Amare Campbell’s choice to leave was a blow, but players like Pryce Yates and Khmori House should make a significant impact.
An 8-4 overall projection with a 5-3 conference record requires North Carolina to beat one of their Big 12 opponents (TCU or UCF). Clemson and Syracuse loom as likely defeats, but the Tar Heels should be able to traverse the rest of their ACC schedule without more than one loss (at NC State in this prediction) if Lopez is allowed to play to his talents as a weapon on the run.
The Middle of the Pack: Louisville, Georgia Tech, Duke, Boston College, Pitt, Florida State, NC State
Last season, just two teams ended the year with a 4-4 record. However, another eight programs finished just one game above or below the middling mark. Our 2025 ACC predictions forecast an ironing out, a levelling of the field, producing a remarkable seven programs epitomising the phrase “middle of the pack.”
Louisville heads the teams with a potential fall from 5-3 to 4-4 this fall. For Jeff Brohm’s team, the schedule is the biggest issue as they try to navigate the ACC. They have road games at Miami and SMU to contend with, while Pitt on the road early in the year is no cake walk. Hosting Clemson is preferable to travelling to South Carolina, but still, it’s suboptimal for their season.
The Cardinals have a talented roster. They might have one of the most dangerous ground games in football in Duke Watson and Isaac Brown, and they invested in the offensive line to allow them to thrive this fall. Brohm has been a reclamation master with quarterbacks, so ruling out Miller Moss is extremely unwise, and they overhauled the defense using the portal. Still, the schedule looms as an inescapable barrier to a nine-win year.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have a good thing going on with Brent Key establishing a winning culture of accountability that was evident multiple times last season. They return a good chunk of last season’s 5-3 ACC team, too, including Haynes King (who led the conference in completion percentage) and one of the top running backs in the country, Jamal Haynes.
Kyle Efford is one of the more underrated linebackers in the country, and they have strong playmakers in the secondary. Yet, an early ACC clash with Clemson will test the Cards’ resolve in the trenches. Our College Football Playoff Predictor throws out some intriguing results beyond that game, but like last season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the program win some games where it won’t be favored … and lose some that they’re expected to win.
The 2024 Duke Blue Devils raced out to a 4-0 record before hitting ACC play last season, something they won’t be able to do this fall. Games against Illinois and Tulane are much different from their out-of-conference schedule last year, with Darian Mensah’s revenge match adding extra impetus to the Green Wave (the matchup is also in Yulman Stadium in New Orleans).
On the positive side, Duke avoids SMU and Miami this year, but it will have to take down Clemson, Syracuse, and North Carolina on the road. Although they beat NC State away from Durham, N.C., last fall, our College Football Playoff Predictor likes the Wolf Pack to exact revenge, a critical game in the balance of the conference.
With the return of Wesley Williams, Vincent Anthony Jr., and Chandler Rivers to the defense, Duke can outstrip their projection here. That said, Mensah has less talent on offense to work with than Maalik Murphy did last fall, which could factor into the overall outcome for the Blue Devils in the second year under Manny Diaz.
Bill O’Brien returned the Boston College Eagles to a level record in the ACC last year after three consecutive seasons below .500 in the conference. However, with Clemson, Louisville, SMU, and a road trip to Syracuse on the slate, pushing past that and into the upper echelons looks problematic for the Eagles as they approach the 2025 college football campaign.
Although standout safety KP Price returns, defensive losses led by All-American defensive end Donovan Ezeiruaku sting as they prepare to face some of the ACC’s top offenses. Reed Harris is one of the most unique offensive playmakers in the country, and he gives the Eagles’ starting quarterback a legitimate downfield target.
Yet, we don’t know who that will be; an offseason competition between Grayson James and Dylan Lonergan still rumbles on.
The Pittsburgh Panthers placed two players on College Sports Network’s Top 100 Returning Players for 2025, highlighting a talented roster. Desmond Reid should be considered one of the top running backs in the country, and Kyle Louis is a game-changer at linebacker. However, the program enters the 2025 season after a six-game losing streak and a 3-5 ACC record.
Our College Football Playoff Predictor at least forecasts an extra conference win this season. Yet, they’ll need to see better quarterback play out of Eli Holstein (74.9, C grade by PFSN College QB+) and a pass-catching unit that loses Konata Mumpfield and Gavin Bartholomew. Meanwhile, Pitt hasn’t had a top-50 scoring defense since 2021, which will be a problem.
After going 1-7 in the ACC with a 2-10 overall record last fall, 2025 has to be better for Mike Norvell and the Florida State Seminoles, right? Well, the good news is, our projections forecast an improvement for the program, returning to bowl eligibility and an even keel in the conference. It might not be the jump fans want to see, but it’s a potentially realistic one.
Thomas Castellanos is an upgrade at the quarterback position. If Gus Malzahn uses the former Boston College passer as he used John Rhys Plumlee at UCF, we could be in for an entertaining season, especially with a completely rebuilt offense with as many as seven transfer portal acquisitions expected to start. Coaching staff changes on the defense help too, while Darrell Jackson Jr. returns as one of the top interior defenders in the country.
Miami and Clemson loom large on the Seminoles’ ACC schedule, while our College Football Playoff Predictor identifies Pitt and a first West Coast trip (Stanford) as Florida State’s problem points.
After a 6-6 campaign that featured a 3-5 ACC record, would an extra win in conference play relieve any pressure on Dave Doeren?
NC State lost its electric offensive weapon, Kevin Concepcion, to the Texas A&M Aggies, but aside from that, there’s an element of offensive stability that could see growth on that side of the ball, especially with CJ Bailey now established at quarterback. Hollywood Smothers is one of the top running backs in the country at creating after contact, further bolstering the unit.
Concerns come from a defense that allowed 30.2 points per game last fall and didn’t move the needle much across the offseason. They face several teams listed in “The Bottom 5” of our ACC predictions, which helps the quest to get to .500 in the conference, while avoiding all three of Clemson, Louisville, and SMU also helps.
The Bottom 5: Virginia, Virginia Tech, Cal, Stanford, Wake Forest
The Virginia Cavaliers massively upgraded their quarterback situation this offseason, bringing in Chandler Morris off a highly productive campaign and talented young gun Daniel Kaelin. They should see an overall improvement compared to last year, especially with an ACC schedule lacking Clemson, SMU, or Miami. However, there are enough difficult games to cap their conference ceiling, especially with some question marks at wide receiver.
If a team can climb out of the bottom five of our current ACC predictions, I would be happy to wager on it being the Virginia Tech Hokies. They loaded up on both sides of the ball, notably adding Ben Bell from the Texas State Bobcats to aid their pass rush and a familiar face from the conference on offense in the shape of former Wake Forest WR Donavon Greene. Their success largely hinges on the health of Kyron Drones.
Cal had a tough introduction to the ACC a year ago, recording a 2-6 conference record after a promising start to the season. Their roster was gutted this offseason, with quarterback Fernando Mendoza and running back Jaydn Ott headlining several departures. A substantial roster turnover and a schedule featuring SMU and Louisville could mean the second-year leap is more of a sideways step than a great stride forward.
Like Cal, the Stanford Cardinal struggled in their debut season, winning just two conference games. Their offseason has been one of the more eye-opening, with Andrew Luck returning to his former school as general manager.
He recruited Frank Reich to replace Troy Taylor as head coach, giving an NFL feel to the program, but the roster isn’t equipped to tackle the challenges of their schedule. The College Football Playoff Predictor may have been overly kind in getting them to their 4-8 overall record.
Jake Dickert takes over at the Wake Forest Demon Deacons after seeing success in 2024 with the Washington State Cougars, but an overnight turnaround could be a stretch for the program. They added two transfer portal quarterbacks, one of whom has exciting potential in Deshawn Purdie.
Demond Claiborne is a running back to get to know, but overall, the roster feels thin compared to the rest of the conference. There are some tricky road trips on the schedule, plus SMU, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina to navigate.
Avoiding Clemson and Miami is a bonus, but there’s a reason why the Demon Deacons join Stanford at the bottom of the latest ACC odds.
2025 ACC Football Schedule, Week 3
- NC State 31, Wake Forest 17
- Boston College 38, Stanford 24
- Clemson 38, Georgia Tech 21
2025 ACC Football Schedule, Week 4
- Syracuse 27, Clemson 37
- NC State 28, Duke 13
- Stanford 20, Virginia 40
2025 ACC Football Schedule, Week 5
- Florida State 27, Virginia 14
- California 17, Boston College 37
- Duke 21, Syracuse 33
- Georgia Tech 35, Wake Forest 21
- Louisville 37, Pittsburgh 21
- Virginia Tech 18, NC State 35
2025 ACC Football Schedule, Week 6
- Boston College 38, Pittsburgh 18
- Duke 31, California 13
- Clemson 34, North Carolina 17
- Miami (FL) 28, Florida State 17
- Syracuse 27, SMU 37
- Wake Forest 31, Virginia Tech 39
- Virginia 30, Louisville 40
2025 ACC Football Schedule, Week 7
- Clemson 35, Boston College 21
- Pittsburgh 27, Florida State 14
- Virginia Tech 31, Georgia Tech 14
- Stanford 21, SMU 37
2025 ACC Football Schedule, Week 8
- North Carolina 33, California 17
- Louisville 23, Miami (FL) 37
- SMU 17, Clemson 35
- Georgia Tech 21, Duke 34
- Florida State 17, Stanford 30
- Pittsburgh 21, Syracuse 30
2025 ACC Football Schedule, Week 9
- California 14, Virginia Tech 34
- SMU 33, Wake Forest 13
- Boston College 38, Louisville 27
- Syracuse 15, Georgia Tech 30
- Stanford 13, Miami (FL) 33
- Virginia 10, North Carolina 23
- NC State 17, Pittsburgh 31
2025 ACC Football Schedule, Week 10
- North Carolina 23, Syracuse 33
- Virginia 10, California 21
- Duke 17, Clemson 33
- Wake Forest 13, Florida State 31
- Georgia Tech 34, NC State 24
- Louisville 30, Virginia Tech 18
- Miami (FL) 30, SMU 40
- Pittsburgh 21, Stanford 31
2025 ACC Football Schedule, Week 11
- SMU 34, Boston College 21
- California 31, Louisville 17
- Florida State 10, Clemson 28
- Syracuse 23, Miami (FL) 10
- Stanford 10, North Carolina 31
- Wake Forest 17, Virginia 30
2025 ACC Football Schedule, Week 12
- Clemson 34, Louisville 21
- Georgia Tech 24, Boston College 14
- Virginia 14, Duke 24
- Virginia Tech 20, Florida State 40
- NC State 21, Miami (FL) 34
- North Carolina 33, Wake Forest 14
2025 ACC Football Schedule, Week 13
- Florida State 40, NC State 21
- California 21, Stanford 30
- Duke 10, North Carolina 30
- Pittsburgh 33, Georgia Tech 23
- Louisville 38, SMU 23
- Miami (FL) 24, Virginia Tech 13
2025 ACC Football Schedule, Week 14
- Boston College 21, Syracuse 31
- SMU 34, California 17
- Wake Forest 17, Duke 31
- Miami (FL) 13, Pittsburgh 27
- North Carolina 14, NC State 27
- Virginia Tech 10, Virginia 24
