2 Reasons Why Texas Can Upset Texas A&M

After being left for dead following its embarrassing loss to Georgia two weeks ago, Texas delivered an excellent bounce-back performance against conference rival Arkansas this weekend, led by a school-record-setting performance from Arch Manning. If the Longhorns want to produce a significant positive in what has been a disappointing season, a win over bitter in-state rival Texas A&M on Friday is a must. A win by the Longhorns will prevent the Aggies from producing their first perfect regular season since 1994, along with finishing off a season sweep of their three SEC rivals for the second consecutive season. Despite being slight underdogs, here are three reasons Texas can upset A&M in the Lone Star Showdown.

How Much Has Arch Manning Improved?

Although his season didn’t start as expected, Manning’s improvement from the beginning of the season until where he is right now has been one of the biggest positives for Texas’ entire program this season. Since a disastrous game against Kentucky in an overtime win in mid-October, Manning has put together the best stretch of football of his entire career. In four games since against Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Arkansas, Manning has thrown for 300 yards or more in three of the four games while passing for at least one touchdown in every game. More importantly, Texas is 3-1 over Manning’s hot stretch as he has passed for 1,314 total yards and 11 touchdowns while throwing only two picks during the back stretch of the Longhorns’ season. Against A&M, Texas will need Manning to produce one of his best performances of his career if they plan to upset the Aggies. Manning’s decision-making must be at a premium against A&M’s opportunistic defense, as the Aggie defense is second in the SEC in sacks and has the best third-down percentage in the nation for getting teams off the field. So far in his young career, Manning has shown an ability to be at his best in rivalry games, against Oklahoma and Arkansas, as he threw for 555 yards and five touchdowns with no picks in Texas’ 2 victories over their rivals, including a career-high 389 yards in last week’s win over the Razorbacks. Against Arkansas last weekend, Manning produced the best all-around effort of his career by throwing four touchdowns, catching his career touchdown, and running for his seventh touchdown on the season. As a result, he became the first Texas QB in program history to throw for all in the same game.  A similar all-around effort will be needed to beat A&M and secure Texas’s third win over a top-10 team this season.

It’s hard to win in Austin

In the last 8 Lone Star Showdown games in Austin, A&M has only won 2 decisions, with both wins being by 7 points or less. Like most upper-echelon teams in college football, Texas has a significant home-field advantage, having won 18 of its last 19 games in Austin. A notable trend for Texas this season has been their increased explosiveness offensively at home compared to road games. In just five home games this season, Texas has produced 22 explosive plays while outscoring opponents by 24.2 points per game. The Longhorns’ receivers will have to find ways to continue producing explosive plays against an Aggie secondary that allowed five explosive plays in their last SEC game against South Carolina. In the end, despite the odds being stacked against them, Texas is good enough and should pull off the upset this weekend to win the Lone Star Showdown for the second consecutive season.