After seeing his targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns rise in all four seasons of his NFL career, Dallas Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb finished the 2023 season as the WR1 overall in fantasy football.
Yet, entering the final year of his rookie contract without an extension secured up to this point, should Lamb still be the first WR off the board in fantasy football drafts in 2024?
CeeDee Lamb’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Through the first five weeks of the 2023 season, Lamb’s performance wasn’t great. He was the WR16 with just 27 receptions for 358 yards and one score, generating just 14.2 fantasy points per game.
Yet, Lamb’s next four games were outstanding, posting 7+ receptions and 115+ receiving yards to ignite his run to a WR1 overall finish. His final stat line last year was 135 receptions for 1,749 yards and 12 TDs, which makes his 403.2 fantasy points the second-highest fantasy output we’ve seen from a receiver over the last 10 years.
Career-high in catches (135), receiving yards (1,749), and TDs (12) for WR1 in Dallas.
Is CeeDee Lamb your pick for OPOY? (by @Surface) pic.twitter.com/smY9IvLcrM
— NFL (@NFL) February 6, 2024
Lamb’s production has trended in the right direction every season of his NFL career, which perhaps foreshadowed his breakout campaign in 2023.
Lamb’s Receiving Production Every Year of His NFL Career:
- 2020: 111 targets, 74 receptions, 935 yards, five TDs (WR22)
- 2021: 120 targets, 79 receptions, 1,102 yards, six TDs (WR19)
- 2022: 156 targets, 107 receptions, 1,359 yards, nine TDs (WR5)
- 2023: 181 targets, 135 receptions, 1,749 yards, 12 TDs (WR1)
Do you notice a trend? Lamb’s targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns have all increased each year of his NFL career. Is it difficult to project better numbers across the board after his exceptional production last year? Yes.
However, after Amari Cooper’s departure from this offense heading into the 2022 campaign, Lamb’s fantasy floor has become 100+ receptions for 1,300+ yards and 9+ scores. That is nothing short of fantasy excellence.
Lamb’s usage is excellent, but not outlier-type outstanding. His target share (29.9%) ranked eighth at the position, while his average depth of target (9.5) ranked 70th. Yet, his team has made him the poster child for how to deploy versatile receivers in today’s NFL to produce fantasy excellence.
Lamb’s 508 slot snaps show how the Cowboys move him all over the formation to help get his free releases off the line of scrimmage. From there, he can utilize his savvy route-running ability and elite yards-after-catch skills to generate fantasy points easily as the focal point of a high-powered passing attack.
He led the league in both red-zone targets (31) and receptions (17) last year in a Dallas offense that made a league-leading 71 trips to the red zone. This elite usage could continue in 2024, with Jake Ferguson likely being Lamb’s top target competition.
There’s nothing to suggest that either Ferguson or Brandin Cooks will significantly eat into Lamb’s elite target volume heading into this year. This makes his ceiling of WR1 overall for the 2024 season well within the range of fantasy outcomes.
Lamb’s ADP of No. 2 overall as the top WR on the board is well deserved, given his excellent production throughout his career and the leap into elite territory we saw in 2023.
The Cowboys have arguably the worst RB room in the league and lost multiple quality starters along their offensive line this offseason. This means Dallas’ offense could rely even more on Lamb to be the engine this upcoming season.
The Cowboys didn’t make any noteworthy additions to their receiver group this offseason, which likely suggests Lamb’s elite target share is secure. Assuming the role is very similar to what we saw last season, he’s worthy of a top-five pick in your 2024 fantasy football draft.