The quarterback conversation in the 2026 NFL Draft has felt settled for months. Fernando Mendoza at the top, Ty Simpson somewhere behind him, and then a wide-open middle tier, the uncertainty void, where anyone can become the QB3. That has been the league-wide accepted notion ahead of this draft… or so it has been portrayed. Because Tom Pelissero couldn’t really let the thought of Carson Beck falling out of Round 1 run dry.
So, to expect the Miami QB to go out late as the first-rounder is not really too hard to believe, per Pelissero.
Carson Beck’s Gaining Late Momentum As a Potential Riser
During a conversation with Rich Eisen, Pelissero explained why Beck could be the quarterback who disrupts expectations.
“Quarterback-wise, the one guy I keep coming back to, this may not be in round one, but I can’t 100% rule it out,” Pelissero said. “The quarterback who is going to go higher than every projection has had him in this process, I believe, is Carson Beck.”
Pelissero pointed to a combination of perception shifts and behind-the-scenes evaluations driving that rise. “Carson Beck has impressed people in the process. When he’s meeting with coaches, he comes across, as one scout put it to me, a beautiful mind in terms of his football IQ. He knows exactly what’s going on on the football field.”
That aligns with the broader evaluation trend. Beck checks traditional quarterback thresholds that teams still value. Build, production, command, and composure at the line of scrimmage. As Pelissero noted, “He’s 6’5, has a good enough arm. Why is that guy not going high?”
There are still reservations. His time at the Georgia Bulldogs came with mixed reviews, but his transfer to the Miami Hurricanes helped reset parts of that narrative, particularly in interviews and meetings with teams.
“I believe he will go in the second round of his draft,” Pelissero added. “And there’s at least a non-trivial chance –– again, based on the fact that everyone in the back half of the first round is going to have a second-round grade, I would not 100% rule out the idea of Carson Beck somehow finding his way into the back of round one.”
Teams picking late in Round 1 often operate with similar grades, and the positional importance can tilt decisions quickly.
Scheme fit also plays a role. Pelissero noted that Beck profiles well in systems that prioritize structure and processing, floating the Jets as a possible landing spot given that Beck is the exact type of big-bodied pocket passer offensive coordinator Frank Reich covets.
From a data standpoint, Beck’s ceiling has already been established. In 2023, he posted a PFSN CFB QB Impact score of 85.7, ranking fourth nationally.
BE AN NFL GM: PFSN’s Ultimate GM Simulator
The concern is consistency. His tape shows moments of high-level execution, but also questionable decisions under center, and his post-2024 UCL surgery has raised further questions about arm strength and long-term durability.
That is why he sits in this volatile range. He may not be a plug-and-play starter early. In fact, the best scenario for his development likely involves time behind a veteran, allowing him to regain full form and refine his decision-making. And it only takes one team to see it differently.
