If you’re planning to make NFL prop bets for this pivotal Arizona Cardinals vs. New England Patriots Week 14 matchup on Monday Night Football, then you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Cardinals vs. Patriots Prop Bets To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
These recommended bets assume the Cardinals eke out the victory, perhaps the last-minute variety. These are two evenly matched teams, with New England leaning heavily on their running game and defense while Arizona puts most of its faith in a passing attack that’s still not whole.
Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and Marquise Brown need to show more than we saw in their last outing when they failed to expose the opposing Chargers’ porous pass D. Yes, James Conner kicked butt. But that won’t help them tonight against one of the toughest run defenses.
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Strangely, I believe the Pats will rack up more yards than Arizona. But New England’s receiving corps (minus Jakobi Meyers) isn’t exactly a scoring machine. Their WRs and TEs taking the field tonight have combined for only seven TDs. Anything close to the end zone, more likely than not, will fall on Rhamondre Stevenson’s shoulders.
With that in mind, here are my recommended prop bets for several key players.
Kyler Murray Prop Bets
As referenced above, Murray has a tough task tonight. I believe we’ll see a more conservative passing approach in the first quarter, combined with some Murray runs to try to loosen the defense. Total yards? He’ll be fine. But 235+ passing yards seems like a longshot.
- Passing yards under 238.5
(-115) — DraftKings - Rushing yards over 34.5
(-113) — FanDuel - Interceptions under 0.5
(EVEN) — DraftKings
James Conner Prop Bets
If the Cardinals are in cruise control for most of the evening, we might envision Conner racking up 80+ rushing yards on 20+ carries. But in a close contest, if Conner’s not getting the job done early, he could get phased out a bit.
I wrote a bit. 12-14 carries rather than 16-18. Because the Pats are yielding an elite 3.7 yards per carry to opposing RBs, as well as an NFL-low three RB scores. Conner’s not Arizona’s key to victory. As a result, I believe he’ll be more expendable in their game plan.
- Rushing yards under 61.5
(EVEN) — DraftKings
DeAndre Hopkins Prop Bets
It’s easy to bet the over on a de facto No. 1 receiver with five 87+ yard performances in six games. But the combination of Marquise Brown’s presence and a strong New England secondary should cap him at around five catches for 57 yards.
Note that in his first and only game playing alongside Brown, Hopkins’ targets plummeted to six. Might they pop back up to 9-10? Possibly. But he enjoyed 12+ in four of his previous five games. Even a slightly reduced role — facing an often stifling secondary — should cap his ceiling.
- Receptions under 6.5
(-125) — DraftKings - Receiving yards under 75.5
(-113) — FanDuel
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Mac Jones Prop Bets
Is Mac Jones a franchise QB? He has a few more weeks to prove he belongs on the field in Week 1, 2023. No doubt, Arizona offers him a golden opportunity to take another step forward, as the Cardinals have yielded the second most fantasy points to opposing QBs.
However, teams are averaging the fifth most pass attempts against Arizona. New England might have other ideas, putting more weight on Stevenson to carry the load and move the chains, limiting Jones to more of a game-manager role — especially without his No. 1 receiver.
- Passing yards under 226.5
(-115) — DraftKings - Passing touchdowns under 1.5
(-184) — FanDuel - Interceptions under 0.5
(-130) — DraftKings
Rhamondre Stevenson Prop Bets
I still don’t understand why New England didn’t trade impending free agent Damien Harris. I get it: they were playing for a postseason berth, and the Harris-Stevenson combo — along with a near-elite defense — could be dangerous in January.
But tonight, it’ll be Stevenson or bust with Harris once again sidelined. With no one else remotely challenging his backfield dominance, Stevenson probably will be the game’s leading rusher and (I believe) only RB scorer.
- Rushing attempts over 17.5
(-130) — DraftKings - Rushing yards over 72.5
(-113) — FanDuel - Receptions over 4.5
(-145) — DraftKings
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