The Arizona Cardinals‘ RB depth chart has a lot of room for fluctuation as the season progresses, but in terms of the Week 1 pecking order, a clear hierarchy is established.
James Conner is the veteran grinder who always outperforms expectations but has an injury history, but rookie third-rounder Trey Benson showed the potential to be an all-around back at Florida State. Emari Demercado also saw some action in 2023 as a rookie (58-284-2) but never earned 700+ yards in a college season at TCU.
Can any of them be useful for fantasy football managers this season? Let’s examine the fantasy outlooks for Conner, Benson, and Demercado in 2024.
James Conner’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 232.7 (193.7 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 918.2
- Rushing Touchdowns: 10.0
- Receptions: 39.0
- Receiving Yards: 293.2
- Receiving Touchdowns: 2.1
If you haven’t been paying attention for the last three years, Conner has been a far better fantasy producer for the Cardinals than he ever was for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Need proof? Just look at the numbers.
Conner’s 5.0 yards per carry, 2.0 yards after contact per attempt, and 27 broken tackles were among some of the best marks for running backs with 200+ carries in 2023. His contact balance and burst suggest there was no fall-off in his performance last year at 28 years old.
In fact, Conner was far more efficient as a ball carrier last season than he was in his prior two years with Arizona — watching his yards-per-carry average rise from 3.72 to 4.27 to 5.0 over his three years with the Cardinals.
After adding the dynamic receiver prospect from Ohio State — Marvin Harrison Jr. — to the mix and Kyler Murray potentially being even better after being a full year removed from his torn ACL, it’s within the range of outcomes to see some more offensive production in 2024.
Yet, how will Benson impact Conner’s fantasy value in 2024? I could see a scenario where Conner starts the year as the primary ball carrier, with Benson rotating in with around 10 touches per game. That role could then expand for Benson as the season progresses with Conner in the final year of his contract.
Conner’s ADP currently sits at No. 55 overall as the RB19 off the board. I’m not a Conner hater, but that seems a bit expensive to me when considering the threat of Benson and taking him ahead of players like D’Andre Swift, Raheem Mostert, and Zamir White.
Conner still has low-end RB2 value, but the pitfalls of a reduced role are certainly present, giving him a riskier profile at the end of the fifth round.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
Trey Benson’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 132.3 (115.0 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 578.8
- Rushing Touchdowns: 5.2
- Receptions: 17.3
- Receiving Yards: 190.5
- Receiving Touchdowns: 1.2
On the surface, Benson’s landing spot with the Cardinals is good but not great from a short-term perspective.
On the plus side, Benson will have an opportunity to join a talented offense with a proven commodity at quarterback with Murray under center. On the negative side, Conner is still under contract and projected to be the lead back at the start of the 2024 season.
If Conner started to show significant signs of his game deteriorating, I’d feel more comfortable predicting Benson taking the lead role in this backfield early in his rookie year. Unfortunately, Conner is coming off of a career-high 1,040 rushing yards last season and has finished as a top-20 fantasy RB every season he has been in a Cardinals uniform.
If Benson can make some splash plays while splitting work with Conner early in the season, he very well could see an expanded role in this backfield over the back half of his rookie campaign, which could make him a very valuable fantasy asset during your playoff stretch.
Benson’s ADP at No. 122 overall in the 11th round as the RB36 off the board presents an interesting amount of upside and risk at the current price. For some additional context, Benson is actually being selected behind Ezekiel Elliott and Gus Edwards, both of whom have a clearer inside track to touches heading into the 2024 NFL season.
The Cardinals’ third-round investment in the talented back from FSU suggests he is more than just a depth piece behind Conner in 2024. Fantasy managers who believe in Benson’s upside should definitely temper their expectations early in the season but should feel comfortable selecting him at this price point.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
Emari Demercado’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 70.9 (50.6 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 274.8
- Rushing Touchdowns: 1.9
- Receptions: 20.3
- Receiving Yards: 115.2
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.1
He was a popular add last season when Conner inevitably missed time, but that role is no longer his. Benson is the clear RB2 in this backfield, and there is evidence that Demercado can’t handle consistent work (he didn’t reach 100 carries in any of his five seasons at TCU). Betting against a full season from Conner is wise — there just isn’t enough role upside for this team’s RB3, even if that were to occur.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
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