The Dolphins barely pulled out a victory in Madrid over the Washington Commanders. It seemed as if neither team had an interest in winning this game, as both teams had a multitude of opportunities to win the game, but came up empty until Marcus Mariota threw a backbreaking interception on the first play of overtime. The Dolphins knocked in the game-winning field goal shortly after to keep their season alive.
Latest Dolphins’ Playoff Chances
Usually, eight losses will mean that your team will be on the couch watching the playoffs on television. The Dolphins avoided racking up their eighth loss of the season in Madrid and kept their slim postseason hopes alive. It would have certainly been over if they fell to 3-8, but at 4-7 with games against the Saints, Jets, and Bengals up next, never say never for Miami.
Miami’s playoff odds sit at just 2.4% after the Week 11 win, according to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor. With victories in their easier upcoming matchups, they could see these odds skyrocket. However, they must be perfect in those games and in all others. Don’t expect the Dolphins to be in the playoffs, but there is still the tiniest sliver of hope.
The issue lies in the Dolphins’ last two fixtures of the season, as they are against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the NFL-best 9-2 Patriots. It would be a miracle if the Dolphins could pull off an insane win streak to sneak into the postseason. After a performance like today against the Commanders’ backup offense, for the most part, it’s hard to have any confidence in the squad.
THE GAME WINNER 😤 pic.twitter.com/Orcjr9cO5u
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) November 16, 2025
The win may have hurt the Dolphins more than it helped. The good news is that the Dolphins have not quit on their head coach. On the other hand, it provides a false sense of hope that this team doesn’t need to rebuild from scratch. It is a lot harder to rebuild if they can’t land a high first-round pick, and their win today hurt their odds.
Miami’s odds of landing a top-10 pick went from 67.8% to 53.5%, landing a top-5 pick went from 25.2% to 12.7%, and securing a top-3 pick went from 11.6% to 4.4%. Their playoff odds remain very low, while their draft pick odds have taken a hit.
This Miami team could look a lot different in the future. Everything suggests that this team is underperforming, but a couple of wins could change that perception. A victory over the injury-ridden Commanders isn’t much to be proud of, but a win is a win in the NFL, and it kept their season alive for one more week.
