The Cincinnati Bengals enter their Week 13 Thanksgiving trip to Baltimore with long‑shot postseason hopes, and PFSN’s Playoff Predictor shows exactly how fragile they are. In the current baseline before kickoff, the Bengals sit at just 1.0% to make the playoffs and 0.9% to win the AFC North, while the Ravens hold a commanding 58.2% division chance and 60.5% playoff probability.
What Happens if the Bengals Beat the Ravens?
If Cincinnati pulls the upset in Baltimore, PFSN bumps the Bengals to 5.0% to reach the postseason, with their division odds nudging up to 1.0%. Baltimore would still be favored, but its AFC North chances would drop slightly to 40.6%, and its playoff odds would fall modestly to 42%, reflecting better wild‑card security than divisional certainty.
From a Bengals playoff‑scenario standpoint, a win is non‑negotiable. At 4‑8, they would still need to stack victories down the stretch and get help from multiple AFC rivals, but at least there would be a mathematically meaningful path instead of a near‑total long shot. Every remaining divisional game, tiebreaker, and conference result would suddenly carry added weight.
Are the Bengals Eliminated If They Lose?
If the Bengals lose on Thanksgiving, the numbers become brutal. Although they would not be eliminated, PFSN’s model slashes Cincinnati a 0.10% chance to make the playoffs with a loss. In practice, that reflects a virtually insurmountable climb given their record, remaining schedule, and tiebreaker outlook. They would actually have better chances at the first overall pick at 1.9%.
Baltimore, on the other hand, would jump to 64.4% to win the division even in the least favorable scenario for them, keeping them strongly positioned for both the AFC North crown and at least a wild‑card berth. That swing underscores why this game ranks among the most important Bengals playoff scenarios of the entire 2025 season.
.@kurt13warner sets his expectations for the return of Joe Burrow ⬇#WhoDey pic.twitter.com/twgGMMAONZ
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) November 27, 2025
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens Preview
Cincinnati Bengals
Team: This is the Bengals’ second time playing on Thanksgiving. They lost to the Jets in 2010.
QB: Joe Burrow had a 72.8 (C-) QBi in Week 1 and a 79.6 (C+) in Week 2 to start the season. Joe Flacco recorded B- grades in two of his first four games with the Bengals, but has graded at D+ the last two weeks.
Offense: The Bengals have scored a total of 32 points in the last three games after scoring at least 33 points in each of the previous three games.
Defense: Cincinnati recorded the team’s second-best DEFi in Week 12, which was 75.5 (C). The highest score was a 76.9 (C) in Week 1 against the Browns. The Bengals ranked 32nd in DEFi for the season.
Fantasy: With Ja’Marr Chase suspended last week, Andrei Iosivas led the Bengals in routes run. Tee Higgins is out this week with a concussion. The Ravens allow the ninth most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Team: This is the third Thanksgiving Day game in Ravens history; all have been played in Baltimore. Cincinnati defeated San Francisco in 2011 and Pittsburgh in 2013.
QB: Lamar Jackson had a strong return from his hamstring injury in Week
Offense: The Ravens have committed three turnovers in six wins, all three of which occurred in Week 11 against the Browns. Baltimore has committed 10 in the team’s five losses.
Defense: The Ravens graded in DEFi at a D or D- level in four of the first five games. They received a B- or better in three of the last three games.
Fantasy: Before Week 11, Lamar Jackson had finished a game (excluding injury) with single-digit fantasy points in his career exactly zero times. He’s now done it in consecutive games. The Bengals allow the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.