The Cincinnati Bengals had quite the battle with the 4-1 Pittsburgh Steelers. Coming off a four-game losing streak, the Bengals had a tough task to take down one of the hottest teams in the AFC. They pulled out a huge win to keep their playoff hopes and the chances at the AFC North alive.
Using the PFSN NFL Football Playoff Meter (FPM), let’s take a look at the Bengals’ playoff hopes in the 2025 NFL season after their massive victory.
The PFSN FPM system uses our proprietary metrics to rank all 32 teams and uses that data to simulate the remainder of the season 100,000 times. From there, we can provide the percentage chance of a number of outcomes, including teams making the playoffs, winning their division, or even their odds of finishing the season with the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Cincinnati Bengals Are Fighting to Keep Playoff Hopes Alive
The Bengals traded for Joe Flacco last week in a desperate attempt to keep their playoff hopes alive. It would always be tough on Flacco with two games in just over a week following the trade. The problem for Cincinnati was that if Flacco and the company had not won tonight against Pittsburgh, their already considerable task would have gotten significantly harder.
The Bengals were in control of the game for most of the second half, until they weren’t. Aaron Rodgers connected with Pat Freiermuth for a long touchdown on a busted coverage to give Pittsburgh a late lead. But Flacco, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins proved to be too much as they got themselves in position for the game-winning field goal to seal the upset victory.
A loss would have put the Bengals three games behind the Steelers in the win column and four games ahead of them in the loss column. Being 3.5 games back entering Week 8 is not a totally game-over scenario, but the Bengals’ chances of winning the division would have slid from 8.4% to 3.1% in our simulations.
FANT FINDS SIX
📺: #PITvsCIN on @NFLonPrime pic.twitter.com/CfNuWvf0SN
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) October 17, 2025
With the Bengals’ victory in Week 7, the picture changes considerably. They are just one game behind the Steelers in the win column and only two ahead of them in the loss column. With 10 games left in the season, overturning a 1.5-game deficit with another match against the Steelers later in the season is more than possible.
In our simulations, a Bengals win increased their division odds by more than double, to 16.9%. Additionally, their odds of making the playoffs climbed to 27.1%, meaning they make the playoffs in more than a quarter of our simulations.
MONEY MAC PUTS US IN FRONT
📺: #PITvsCIN on @NFLonPrime pic.twitter.com/XzV2xYMB0w
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) October 17, 2025
All was not lost if they had lost, as the Bengals still make the playoffs in just under 10% of our simulations with a loss tonight. However, at that point, their chances of making the playoffs (9.3%) would be far closer to their odds of finishing the season with the first overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft (5.4%) than they would have expected when the season began.
The Bengals’ 33-31 win against the Steelers is a huge result for the team. Hopefully, they’ll be able to make the postseason. Joe Burrow is expected to return mid-December, and with a well-rested version of him, Cincinnati is a legitimate Super Bowl contender.