After a surprising 30-13 loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 10, questions were starting to mount regarding just how strong a contender the Buffalo Bills were in the AFC. They put some of those concerns to rest in Week 11 with a dominant 44-32 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
With the New England Patriots setting a blistering pace in the AFC East, is there still a chance that Buffalo could catch New England and win the division? Here’s everything to know about the playoff race.
Can the Buffalo Bills Still Win the AFC East?
After a lackluster outing from their offense a week ago, Buffalo turned it up a notch against the Buccaneers in Week 11, with the offense firing on all cylinders. It wasn’t the greatest start as Allen had a couple of unforced errors, but the offense started clicking and became the force many have come to expect from the Bills.
Allen became the first player in NFL history with three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns in multiple games while also tying Cam Newton for the most regular-season rushing touchdowns of all time at 75. According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, Buffalo strengthened their chances of making the playoffs, rising from an 84.1% chance before Week 11 to an 87.8% chance after the win against Tampa Bay.
Josh Allen is the first player in NFL history with 3+ passing & 3 + rushing TDs in multiple career games.
Allen has also tied Cam Newton (75) for the most rushing TDs by a QB all-time (regular season only).
— Buffalo Bills PR (@BuffaloBillsPR) November 16, 2025
Unfortunately for the Bills, however, the Patriots also won in Week 11, defeating the New York Jets 27-14 on Thursday Night Football to improve their record to 9-2 on the season. They hold a game-and-a-half lead on the Bills, who sit at 7-3 and have the tiebreaker against them after beating them in Buffalo in Week 5 with a score of 23-20. New England will not hit its bye week until Week 14.
Given the Patriots’ Week 11 win, while the Bills’ chances of making the playoffs rose, the chances of winning the AFC East took another hit. Heading into Week 11, the Bills had a 23.4% chance of winning the division, but with wins by themselves and the Patriots, their chances of winning the AFC East dropped to 20.8%.
The Bills have a date with the Patriots at Gillette Stadium as New England comes out of its bye week. If both teams continue on their current trajectory, it will be imperative for Buffalo to win the Week 15 matchup if they want a chance to win another AFC East title.