After not playing a snap of professional football for well over a calendar year, Calvin Ridley proved he still can at the professional level by producing the second 1,000-yard receiving season of his NFL career in 2023 with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Yet, after potentially receiving a downgrade at the quarterback position by joining the Tennessee Titans this offseason, what does Ridley’s fantasy football ceiling look like heading into 2024?
Should You Select Calvin Ridley at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 75th Overall (WR33)
- 2023 Performance Recap: After returning from a year-long hiatus, Ridley posted 76 receptions for 1,016 yards and eight touchdowns on 136 targets, finishing as the WR18 in fantasy football in 2023. While this was a strong showing, his inconsistent week-to-week production left some fantasy managers disappointed.
- Volatility and Efficiency Concerns: Ridley’s 2023 season was marked by volatility, with three games over 100 yards and eight games under 40 yards receiving. Despite ranking eighth in air yards and deep targets among WRs, his efficiency metrics were lackluster, with 1.60 yards per route run and 7.5 yards per target. His six drops also hindered his overall production.
- Reduced YAC Production: Compared to his WR5 finish in 2020, Ridley’s yards after catch (YAC) production dropped to 2.6 yards per reception in 2023, down from 3.1 in 2020. This decline raises questions about whether Ridley can return to his peak form, especially in a potentially less favorable offensive environment.
- New Challenges in Tennessee: Moving to the Titans in 2024, Ridley faces a downgrade at quarterback with Will Levis compared to Trevor Lawrence. Additionally, he’ll have to compete for targets with DeAndre Hopkins, a proven veteran and target magnet. While Hopkins’ presence could help Ridley exploit coverages, the overall ceiling of the Titans’ passing game remains uncertain.
- ADP Analysis: Ridley’s current ADP of WR33 in the seventh round reflects both his proven talent and the uncertainties surrounding his new situation in Tennessee. While his WR3 upside is evident, questions about the Titans’ passing offense and Ridley’s volume next to Hopkins make it a risky proposition.
- Final Verdict: Ridley’s seventh-round ADP is fair given his potential for a significant role in Tennessee, especially if Hopkins’ knee injury persists. However, the risk associated with his new environment and the presence of other strong WR options in this range (e.g., Jayden Reed, Chris Godwin) makes it important to weigh the upside against the uncertainty before drafting him.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Calvin Ridley
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Ridley is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.
36) Chris Godwin, WR | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
37) Diontae Johnson, WR | Carolina Panthers
38) Brian Thomas Jr., WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
39) Hollywood Brown, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
40) DeAndre Hopkins, WR | Tennessee Titans
41) Calvin Ridley, WR | Tennessee Titans
42) Xavier Worthy, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
43) Courtland Sutton, WR | Denver Broncos
44) Keon Coleman, WR | Buffalo Bills
45) Rome Odunze, WR | Chicago Bears
46) Curtis Samuel, WR | Buffalo Bills
Calvin Ridley’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Ridley had a ton of fantasy buzz heading into the 2023 NFL season when he was positioned as the best deep threat on the Jaguars’ passing offense with Trevor Lawrence under center.
It would be hard to consider Ridley’s 76 receptions for 1,016 yards and eight TDs on 136 targets for a WR18 finish last year a complete failure, but it did leave some fantasy managers who were hoping for a WR1 season a bit disappointed.
Let’s start with the positives. Despite being a full year removed from playing professional football, Ridley still produced some excellent fantasy performances last year. He had three games in which he produced 6+ receptions for 100+ receiving yards and a score. Unfortunately, those were paired with eight games in which he failed to top 40 yards receiving.
Ridley’s week-to-week volatility made him feel like a Gabe Davis-type boom-or-bust option who fantasy managers happened to start far more often last year.
In fact, it felt like there was plenty of production left on the field. Ridley finished the season by seeing the eighth-most air yards and deep targets at the WR position but finished outside of the top 45 at the position with 1.60 yards per route run and 7.5 yards per target. Ridley’s six drops didn’t do him any favors, either.
One area where Ridley saw some reduction in 2023 in direct comparison to his WR5 finish back in 2020 was his production after the catch. He averaged just 2.6 yards after the catch per reception last season, which is a half-yard lower than his mark of 3.1 back in 2020.
Did Ridley still prove he can route up defenders and threaten defenses vertically last year? Yes. Can fantasy managers reasonably question whether he’ll ever reach the heights we saw from him during his best year in Atlanta? Yes, I believe that is a reasonable concern too.
The situation isn’t likely to get much better as a member of the Titans in 2024. Will Levis certainly feels like a downgrade from Lawrence under center, and Ridley will have to compete with proven veteran target hog DeAndre Hopkins this year.
Could the attention Hopkins demands help Ridley exploit coverages on the opposite side of the formation? It’s within the range of outcomes, but the ceiling of this Titans’ passing offense feels like a complete unknown heading into 2024.
Is Ridley a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Ridley’s ADP of No. 75 overall in the back half of the seventh round (WR33 off the board) gives me some mixed feelings.
Does he have WR3 upside in Tennessee? Sure, we just saw him produce a top-20 fantasy season last year after not playing a snap of NFL football for over a full calendar year. Regardless of your feelings about Ridley’s statistical output last year, that’s still impressive.
Yet, I do have questions about the Titans’ passing offense and some concerns about Ridley’s volume next to Hopkins that make me hesitate to draft him ahead of players like Jayden Reed, Chris Godwin, and Ladd McConkey.
The price becomes a bit more intriguing while Hopkins deals with a knee injury in this revamped vertical passing attack, which makes his seventh round ADP a fair one considering the potential for an expanded role if he becomes the clear top option in this passing game to start the 2024 season.