Tennessee Titans WR Calvin Ridley had his moments with the Jacksonville Jaguars last year after missing the majority of the previous two seasons. Now, he finds himself in a work-in-progress offense that is looking to develop Will Levis in Year 2.
Is it time to invest in Ridley, with lowered expectations after he struggled to capitalize on a seemingly perfect spot a season ago? Or are the days of him being considered a weekly fantasy football option in the rearview mirror until otherwise noted?
Calvin Ridley’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Was the Ridley experience a success or failure with the Jags? On one hand, he quietly cleared 1,000 yards and was one of 10 players with 75+ catches and 8+ touchdown receptions.
Anyways Calvin Ridley Ladies and Gentlemen 😎 pic.twitter.com/Apd0nhdtZ7
— RJ Ellison (@Romellz) May 30, 2024
On the other hand, he had multiple three-game stretches in which he failed to reach 55 yards a single time and a run during which he scored one touchdown over two months.
Based on where he was being drafted 12 months ago, I’d say the volatility made him a net loss, even if the year-end numbers look okay. We expected Ridley to assume the lead role in an upward-trending offense led by Trevor Lawrence, something that never really happened consistently.
The asking price for the former Falcons first-rounder in drafts this season has dipped 3+ rounds, a trend that makes sense given what he was (or, more accurately, was not) able to do in what projected as a perfect situation in Jacksonville.
In 2024, Ridley’s talents are in Tennessee, working alongside future Hall of Fame receiver DeAndre Hopkins, and in an offense praying for significant growth from the big-armed Levis.
The Kentucky product took the fantasy world by storm by averaging 12.5 yards per completion with four scores and zero interceptions in his NFL debut, but the rest of Levis’ rookie season was a grind. He threw four touchdowns in his next 226 attempts and left us with more questions than answers heading into Year 2.
Hopkins may be entering his age-32 season, but he did earn over eight targets per game in his 11th NFL season and appeared in every game (15 DNPs over the previous two seasons with the Arizona Cardinals).
As is the case with the industry, I value Ridley as the more appealing option in all fantasy formats (PPR, non-PPR, Best Ball, dynasty, or redraft). Still, it’s close, and the two will certainly take turns being featured as Levis continues to grow.
Consistency was the primary issue for Ridley in Jacksonville, and I don’t think things will be any different this season. Last season, he had a pair of games with 100 yards, a touchdown, and a 30-yard reception. Sadly, both of those instances came against his current employer, an advantageous matchup that he obviously won’t have access to this year.
Ridley’s currently being drafted just outside of the top 30 receivers, a price that isn’t too prohibitive if you think Levis can take a step forward or that Father Time begins to weigh on Hopkins.
I’m not remotely close to considering Ridley over Terry McLaurin or Jayden Reed, the two receivers just ahead of him in terms of ADP. But selecting Ridley over the likes of Chris Godwin or Hollywood Brown is a reasonable move in the sixth round.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Insights on Calvin Ridley
After returning from a year-long hiatus, Ridley posted 76 receptions for 1,016 yards and eight touchdowns on 136 targets, finishing as the WR18 in fantasy football in 2023. While this was a strong showing, his inconsistent week-to-week production left some fantasy managers disappointed.
Ridley’s 2023 season was marked by volatility, with three games over 100 yards and eight games under 40 yards receiving. Despite ranking eighth in air yards and deep targets among WRs, his efficiency metrics were lackluster, with 1.60 yards per route run and 7.5 yards per target. His six drops also hindered his overall production.
Compared to his WR5 finish in 2020, Ridley’s yards after catch (YAC) production dropped to 2.6 yards per reception in 2023, down from 3.1 in 2020. This decline raises questions about whether Ridley can return to his peak form, especially in a potentially less favorable offensive environment.
Moving to the Titans in 2024, Ridley faces a downgrade at quarterback with Will Levis compared to Trevor Lawrence. Additionally, he’ll have to compete for targets with DeAndre Hopkins, a proven veteran and target magnet. While Hopkins’ presence could help Ridley exploit coverages, the overall ceiling of the Titans’ passing game remains uncertain.
Ridley’s current ADP of WR33 in the seventh round reflects both his proven talent and the uncertainties surrounding his new situation in Tennessee. While his WR3 upside is evident, questions about the Titans’ passing offense and Ridley’s volume next to Hopkins make it a risky proposition.
Ridley’s seventh-round ADP is fair given his potential for a significant role in Tennessee, especially if Hopkins’ knee injury persists. However, the risk associated with his new environment and the presence of other strong WR options in this range (e.g., Jayden Reed, Chris Godwin) makes it important to weigh the upside against the uncertainty before drafting him.