While one rookie quarterback looked impressive in his team’s Week 1 loss, another led his team to victory despite struggling in his own NFL debut.
So for fantasy football managers, which player is the better choice to put into their lineups: No. 1 pick Caleb Williams or No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels?
Should You Start Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say Daniels is the player to start.
Daniels’ projected 17.8 points include a projection of 226 passing yards, one passing touchdown, and 37 rushing yards.
That easily outperforms Williams’ consensus projection of 12.6 points, 166 passing yards, one touchdown pass, and 26 rushing yards.
My ranking for these two quarterbacks aligns with the consensus. Daniels’ ability to be a factor in the running game gives him a decided edge over Williams.
Williams’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
Williams, who is QB20 in Pro Football Network’s Fantasy Rankings, had a disappointing debut last week from a numbers standpoint. Williams completed less than 50% of his passes (14-for-29 — 48.3%) and finished with only 93 passing yards in the Bears’ win over the Tennessee Titans.
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Williams managed only 7.2 fantasy points, which ranked 29th among quarterbacks in Week 1. Considering it was his NFL debut and the Bears appear to be much more loaded with offensive weapons this season, Williams’ Week 1 couldn’t have gone much worse, outside of Chicago pulling out the victory.
Williams really struggled with downfield throws, going 1-for-7 on pass attempts that traveled 10 or more air yards.
Next, Williams will meet the Houston Texans, whose quarterback, C.J. Stroud, had one of the greatest rookie seasons in NFL history in 2023.
Daniels’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
Despite his team’s debacle of an effort last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Daniels’ play certainly stood out for fantasy managers. He passed for 184 yards with a completion percentage of 70.8% and added 88 rushing yards and two touchdown runs. He finished his day with 28.2 fantasy points.
Daniels became the first quarterback since 1950 to have at least 80 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns in his first career game.
Jayden Daniels easily had the best rookie QB debut last week. He looked like a version of Lamar Jackson running the ball 😤
All 22 QB Breakdown: Jayden Daniels pic.twitter.com/20VkO1t7DW
— Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) September 14, 2024
And there’s no reason to think Daniels is going to stop being a factor in the running game. He had seven designed runs and eight scrambles in Week 1.
However, those seven designed runs only went for 11 yards, but two resulted in touchdowns. His impact in the running game may be a little misleading.
For Daniels to continue to be productive in his rookie season, he will likely need to do a better job of finding his wide receivers. Washington’s wide receivers combined for only 55 yards last week. Backup running back Austin Ekeler led Washington in both receptions (four) and receiving yards (52) in Week 1.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Williams and Daniels
Caleb Williams: Talk about a wake-up call. Williams was the lone quarterback to earn a failing grade in our custom PFN Insights this past week and looked about as bad as the numbers suggest.
On the bright side, over the past decade, top overall draft picks average 12.9% more fantasy points per throw in their second start than their first. He showed some good feel as an athlete out of the pocket – there’s a fantasy asset here, we just may have to showcase patience before reaping the rewards.
Williams sits just outside of my top 15 at the position this week, even in a reasonably good matchup.
Jayden Daniels: In a perfect world, we see Daniels attack down the field with his arm a bit more in his second start (Week 1: 5.2 aDOT), but the rushing floor seems to be there, and that’s how he works his way into my top 12 again this week.
This kid is a born competitor, and while I’m not going to use that narrative, I do think he benefits this week from what should be a competitive game, something neither of these teams will get to say very often.
It’s not perfect, but we are looking at a rare athlete with recklessness in his profile. That’s a concern for Commanders fans, but that’s the blueprint for success in any given week for fantasy managers.