The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the Washington Commanders on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding TE Cade Otton.
Is Cade Otton Playing vs. the Commanders?
Otton (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Commanders.
Otton is on track to return from a three-game absence following full practice participation Thursday and Friday, although coach Todd Bowles stopped short of promising the tight end will play.
Bowles did confirm that Otton is trending in the right direction, per Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers’ official site, which means Payne Durham and Devin Culp likely will fall back to minimal roles after making significant contributions to Tampa Bay’s passing game over the final few weeks of the regular season.
We’ll continue to monitor the Buccaneers’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Cade Otton on Wild Card Weekend?
If you’ve been reading all season, thanks! If that’s the case, you’re likely not looking for hot Cade Otton takes — you know where I stand.
If not, thanks for joining us for the playoff run. I break down every player for every game for every week during the season, and I encourage you to hang with us into and through next season if you want to improve your fantasy knowledge base.
For those of you who are new here, I’m in the camp that Otton (when healthy; he’s currently battling a knee issue) is a fine play when Mike Evans is sidelined and a flat-out fade when that’s not the case. Tampa Bay’s WR1 is at full-go, and that makes me a full-no on their TE.
Otton’s production with Evans on the field, 2024:
- 0.84 yards per route
- 12.1% target share
- 19.1% red-zone target rate
Otton’s production without Evans on the field, 2024:
- 1.37 yards per route
- 17.7% target share
- 26.7% red-zone target rate
Otton turned two targets into five yards way back in the Week 1 meeting with the Commanders. Although much has changed since early September, Cardio Cade isn’t an investment I’m interested in making. If his ownership spikes because of the perceived favorable nature of this matchup, even better!
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Cade Otton’s Fantasy Points Outlook on Wild Card Weekend
As of Sunday, Otton is projected to score 6.6 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 2.7 receptions for 25.9 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Commanders' Defense
The Washington Commanders were a below-average defense for most of the season, which their final ranking reflects. Ultimately, Washington's performance was largely fairly consistent based on their level of competition.
The Commanders had five weekly top-10 finishes this season. Those performances have come against the Browns, Panthers, Bears, the Titans, and the Kenny Pickett-led Eagles. Setting Philadelphia aside, the other four all rank in the bottom 10 of PFN's Offense+ metric.
Obviously, that's not the caliber of defense Washington will see in the playoffs, starting with the Buccaneers. Washington continues to miss Marshon Lattimore, who has played only two games since being traded to the team before Week 10. For the season, the Commanders ranked 24th in defensive EPA per dropback, the third-lowest among the 14 playoff teams.
Dan Quinn's unit hasn't performed to the level that his Dallas Cowboys defenses did from 2021-23, but that's not the fairest comparison, given that this was supposed to be the early stages of a rebuild. The Commanders have at least shown the ability to overwhelm one-dimensional offenses, which is more than they could say in recent seasons.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Cade Otton’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 8:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 12. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Wild Card Superflex Rankings.
Wild Card TE PPR Rankings
1) Mark Andrews | BAL (vs. PIT)
2) T.J. Hockenson | MIN (at LAR)
3) Zach Ertz | WAS (at TB)
4) Pat Freiermuth | PIT (at BAL)
5) Dalton Kincaid | BUF (vs. DEN)
6) Tucker Kraft | GB (at PHI)
7) Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs. GB)
8) Isaiah Likely | BAL (vs. PIT)
9) Will Dissly | LAC (at HOU)
10) Tyler Higbee | LAR (vs. MIN)
11) Dalton Schultz | HOU (vs. LAC)
12) Payne Durham | TB (vs. WAS)
13) Dawson Knox | BUF (vs. DEN)
14) Cade Otton | TB (vs. WAS)
15) Stone Smartt | LAC (at HOU)
16) Grant Calcaterra | PHI (vs. GB)
17) Luke Musgrave | GB (at PHI)
18) Darnell Washington | PIT (at BAL)
19) Josh Oliver | MIN (at LAR)
20) Lucas Krull | DEN (at BUF)
21) Cade Stover | HOU (vs. LAC)
22) Hayden Hurst | LAC (at HOU)
23) Nate Adkins | DEN (at BUF)
24) Colby Parkinson | LAR (vs. MIN)
25) Devin Culp | TB (vs. WAS)
26) John Bates | WAS (at TB)
27) Adam Trautman | DEN (at BUF)
28) Tucker Fisk | LAC (at HOU)
29) Davis Allen | LAR (vs. MIN)
30) Ben Sinnott | WAS (at TB)
31) MyCole Pruitt | PIT (at BAL)
32) Ko Kieft | TB (vs. WAS)
33) E.J. Jenkins | PHI (vs. GB)
34) Johnny Mundt | MIN (at LAR)
35) Connor Heyward | PIT (at BAL)
Commanders at Buccaneers Trends and Insights
Washington Commanders
Team: In Year 1 of the Jayden Daniels era, the Commanders matched their win total from the two seasons prior (12) and posted their best point differential since the Super Bowl champion 1991 team.
QB: Daniels has completed 27 of 36 passes (75%) against the blitz during the current five-game win streak, a drastic improvement from his 49.1% rate over the previous five games.
Offense: The Commanders have converted eight of their last nine fourth-down attempts (four for four over the past two weeks).
Defense: Washington has held the opposition out of the end zone on at least half of their red zone drives in four of their past five games (one TD on six such drives on Sunday against Dallas).
Fantasy: Terry McLaurin caught 13 touchdown passes this season, more than his best two seasons combined prior.
Betting: The Commanders have failed to cover three straight road games after opening the season 3-1-1 ATS on the road.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: The Bucs haven’t lost a game in regulation by more than three points since October.
QB: In 2021, Baker Mayfield completed 41.8% of his passes when under duress. His rate ticked up to 45.1% in 2022, to 49% in 2023, and up to 58% this season.
Offense: In Weeks 9-14, the Bucs picked up just 38.3% of their third downs. In the four weeks to close the regular season, that rate spiked to 61.4%.
Defense: Just three times through 15 weeks did Tampa Bay fail to force a turnover – they enter the postseason having failed to do so in each of their past three.
Fantasy: Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, his second such streak this season.
Betting: Tampa Bay went 5-4 ATS at home this season after going 5-11-1 over the previous two seasons in front of their home fans.