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    Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints Pick, Prediction, Opening Betting Lines: Who wins on Thanksgiving night?

    The Thanksgiving Day games conclude with a contest in which both teams need a win. Here's our pick and prediction for Bills vs. Saints.

    The Bills were the latest to fall victim to the talent of Jonathan Taylor on Sunday, and they now head to New Orleans to face the Saints for Thursday’s Thanksgiving prime-time game. The Saints will go into this one plagued by injuries and roster issues, as the status of Alvin Kamara and both starting offensive tackles hangs in the balance. Trevor Siemian will likely start once again, but we might see more of Taysom Hill. What is our pick and prediction for this Bills vs. Saints game, what are the latest NFL odds, and how will this battle turn out?

    Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints pick, prediction, opening betting lines | Week 12

    • Spread: Bills -4.5 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
    • Moneyline: Bills -200, Saints +170
    • Over/Under: 46.5

    The Bills struggled against the Colts on Sunday, and the high-wind, heavy-weather environment was a factor. Buffalo centers its offense around Josh Allen, his arm, and pushing the ball downfield. On Sunday, that strategy faced adversity as the winter season started to descend on the NFL. The Bills had to battle their own home-field conditions as well as the thriving Colts.

    Indy ran the ball down Buffalo’s throat all game long. The Bills were without their leading tackler and middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds for the second week in a row, as well as defensive tackle Star Lotulelei, who was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Those are two guys you could use against a team boasting the hottest running back in the league.

    Injury-riddled Saints face a challenge

    The Saints, however, have far greater injury concerns. Michael Thomas has been gone all year, and a makeshift wide receiver corps has had to fill in the gaps. Alvin Kamara, who’s not only the club’s RB1 but also the most targeted player in the passing game, may miss another contest, marking a serious blow to the Saints’ chances at retaining any momentum.

    [bet-bonus id=”164810″ ]

    Both offensive tackles — Ryan Ramczyk and Terron Armstead — have missed time and didn’t play against the Eagles. As a result, Philly had their way with Trevor Siemian and New Orleans’ offense. A backup QB playing with a backup running back and backup tackles created the perfect recipe for absolute disaster.

    Bills vs. Saints betting trends

    Buffalo is 5-5 against the spread and has been a team that can come out firing or misses entirely, turning them into a difficult club to back either way. For example, this week, they were 7-point favorites against the Colts and got destroyed. But the week before, they covered a -13.5 spread against the Jets with ease.

    Then, you have games like the 9-6 loss to the Jaguars, which is just a nightmare for bettors. The Bills are 6-4 covering the over — 2-2 in the last four weeks. In short, Buffalo is a matchup nightmare for spreads and covering this year. They couldn’t really be more on the fence if they tried.

    The Saints, however, are 4-0 covering the over in the last four weeks. They’ve given up a lot of points to teams like the Falcons and Eagles, and they’ve scored at least 21 points per game.

    Siemian hasn’t done a terrible job under the circumstances, and you can never rule out the support of one of the league’s greatest coaching systems under Sean Payton.

    Bills vs. Saints prediction

    The fact that the Bills just took a home-field beatdown from the Colts relaxes the spread for this week’s game against the Saints. Buffalo couldn’t get going because its running backs are not the type of backs who can handle 25+ carries in a blizzard. Matt Breida, Devin Singletary, and Zack Moss split the load, but the Bills are most dangerous with Allen throwing the ball downfield. The weather won’t be a factor in the Superdome in New Orleans.

    Injuries terribly plague the Saints, and Siemian will face pressure from the Bills’ defensive line all day. I like the game to be a little closer if Kamara can go, but he’s not expected to be available. Without him, it’s a patchwork offensive game plan for the Saints, but the Bills can concede some points. I think the game might be more fun than we’re expecting. Still, Buffalo’s offensive firepower will reload and show itself again on Thanksgiving Thursday, ultimately proving too much for Siemian and the Saints.

    Bills vs. Saints Prediction: Bills 35, Saints 24

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