The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons will face off in a battle of NFC South teams. Tampa Bay has been enjoying an outstanding season, posting an 8-3 record through 11 games. Atlanta is surprisingly in the playoff hunt at 5-6, and they would gain plenty of momentum with a win over one of the NFC’s best. Below, you’ll find NFL odds along with a pick and prediction for the Buccaneers vs. Falcons Week 13 clash.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons pick, prediction | Week 13
- Spread: -11 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers -550, Falcons +400
- Over/Under: 50.5
The Buccaneers are a perfect 5-0 at home this season. They haven’t been as successful on the road, recording a 3-3 record thus far. Tampa Bay’s road offense is slightly worse than at home. Overall, they’re averaging a league-high .563 points per play at home this season. That average dips to .402 on the road, although that still ranks slightly above average.
The drastic difference is in their defense. The Bucs are allowing the second-fewest points per play (.266) at home this season. However, they’re conceding the second-most points per play (.452) on the road.
Tampa has allowed the New Orleans Saints, Washington Football Team, and Indianapolis Colts to average 32 points over their last three road games.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons betting trends
Both of these teams have struggled against the spread (ATS) in 2021. They each enter this game with a 5-6 ATS record. Each team has struggled situationally as well. The Bucs own a league-worst 1-5 road ATS record in 2021, while Atlanta enters this game with a league-worst 0-4 home ATS record.
Tampa Bay’s hit the over slightly more often than not this season. They’ve hit six overs and five unders in 2021. Atlanta has leaned more toward the under, going 5-6 over/under through 11 games.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons prediction
Although Atlanta still technically has the potential to make the playoffs, it’s clear that these teams are on different levels. The question isn’t who is the winner — it is can the Falcons cover the spread?
Cordarrelle Patterson is arguably one of the most important players to his offense in the NFL, as Atlanta has found significantly more success with him on the field. He looked healthy last weekend, and Patterson will continue to make a massive difference for Atlanta.
The Bucs will have the edge everywhere in this game, though. They shouldn’t have any problems scoring or slowing down Atlanta’s offense. There continue to be rumblings of Tampa Bay’s road woes in 2021, and they could put them to rest with an elite performance against a divisional rival. With that being said, it’s going to be difficult to cover a double-digit spread against a team within your division.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction: Buccaneers 31, Falcons 24