If you’re looking for this dramatic Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys Wild Card matchup on Monday night, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Buccaneers Considerations
This is a very different Buccaneers team that won the Super Bowl two years ago. It’s also very different than the Bucs squad that nearly mounted a historic comeback against the Rams last year to compete for another title. The personnel hasn’t changed dramatically, but the shifts have been dramatic.
Only last season, Tampa Bay was No. 1 in passing yards (5,383), passing touchdowns (43), and fewest sacks taken (23) while averaging a respectable 4.3 yards per carry. This season? Fifth in passing yards (4,746), tied for 12th with 26 passing TDs, and . . . well, they’re still taking the fewest sacks (22).
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But Tom Brady has needed to throw a record-breaking 733 passes to fall notably short of last year’s production. His 6.4 yards per attempt are his lowest such mark in 20 years. And his injury-weakened offensive line — which surely has contributed to a deflated running game — has forced the legendary QB to work harder for less.
This creates a significant challenge when crafting our DFS slate. Will Tampa Bay — which is also last in the league in rushing attempts — try to establish the run against a relatively stout defense? Or will Brady throw 40+ times yet again, and perhaps even 50+, in what could be his final Super Bowl run?
Cowboys Considerations
The Cowboys have never beaten Tom Brady in seven tries. Dak Prescott has tried. So have Tony Romo, Brandon Weeden, and even Quincy Carter. So has Cooper Rush, who managed 64 scoreless passing yards on 13 throws in relief of Prescott in Week 1.
Yet, Dallas is built to win, having competed most of the year for the NFC’s No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. Two of their losses came in overtime. Another featured Rush from start to finish.
The reality is, for all the question marks surrounding Prescott’s ability to win a Super Bowl, there’s no doubting the prowess of Prescott-led offenses. His core playmakers are healthy, and he’s facing a defense that’s surrendered the second-most passing touchdowns.
Week 1 was a long time ago. Dallas has five core DFS options, plus some secondary/tertiary guys we could land on the cheap. Depending on the likeliest game script, we need to decide if we’re all in on the Cowboys’ passing game, and/or if we believe their two-headed backfield will rise to the occasion.
Top DFS Picks for Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: RB Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers ($10,800)
This lineup assumes Brady will dump off early and often to his catch-friendly backfield. Leonard Fournette has 73 receptions in 16 contests. Four of his six TDs have come from the 1-yard line. If Tampa Bay gets close to the goal line, the veteran RB should get some opportunities.
Flex: WR CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys ($10,600)
Inserting the relatively cheap Fournette gives us more financial flexibility. For context, we’d need to pay $15,900 for CeeDee Lamb as Captain. Instead, I’m comfortable using those extra funds on another elite-upside option. Meanwhile, Lamb should deliver as Prescott’s clear-cut No. 1 receiver.
Flex: QB Dak Prescott, Cowboys ($10,400)
Prescott has 2+ scores in each of his four playoff appearances. His 1-3 record doesn’t do justice to his DFS abilities. He has 24+ point potential every game he starts. Will the Bucs figure out how to slow him down? Possibly. But Prescott’s versatility on the ground (29 career rushing TDs, including three in the playoffs) should help elevate his ceiling.
Flex: QB Tom Brady, Buccaneers ($10,000)
I’m a sucker for dramatic storylines. Whether or not Brady’s indescribably incredible career ends tonight, he surely won’t settle for 19 connections on 31 pass attempts.
MORE: Tom Brady Adds To His Mythology in This Week’s Betting Trends
Dallas has yielded the fifth-fewest points. Brady has produced more lukewarm performances this season than great ones. Yet, the mystique remains. Brady’s high-end receiving corps should step up, and, of course, his backfield alone could rack up 90+ yards.
Flex: TE Dalton Schultz, Cowboys ($6,400)
No joke: I started off writing “RB Rachaa–,” then deleted it. If you’re competing in a 50/50 contest, hedging with Rachaad White alongside Fournette might be both affordable and sensible.
But I went into this season believing firmly (and wrongly) that Dalton Schultz is a top-five DFS tight end. Will I remain wrong in the playoffs? We’ll see. We shouldn’t doubt his talent. Injuries to him and Prescott have upended his campaign, but perhaps no receiver in this game (besides Lamb) has better two-TD odds.
Flex: TE Cade Otton ($1,800)
With only $1,800 remaining, we’re using all of it on the Bucs’ TE of the future, who arguably is their best TE now. Candidly, Dallas has been tough against tight ends. But they also haven’t faced many teams with two dual-threat running backs and four starter-caliber wideouts.
Whatever you decide, good luck tonight.
