The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will travel to Lucas Oil Stadium for a matchup against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 12. The reigning Super Bowl champions have surprisingly struggled on the road in 2021, while the Colts are on a three-game winning streak. Below, we’ll look at the NFL odds for this game along with a Buccaneers vs. Colts pick and prediction.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Indianapolis Colts pick, prediction | Week 12
- Spread: Buccaneers -2.5 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers N/A, Colts N/A
- Over/Under: 51.5
How important are road/home splits?
The Colts are one of the most consistent teams in the NFL regardless of location. They rank third in the NFL in points per play (.447), and that metric doesn’t shift more than .005 at home or on the road.
The Buccaneers have found plenty of success, posting a league-high .465 points per play in 2021. The difference lies in their home/road splits. Tampa Bay’s points per play skyrocket to .563 at home but plummet to .362 on the road. This is the case for each team’s points allowed per play this season as well. The Colts are allowing .355 points per play at home, as opposed to only .364 on the road. As you can tell, there isn’t a major difference between the numbers.
Similar to their offense’s ranging success depending on location, the Bucs’ defense has found the same problem. They’ve looked elite in Tampa Bay, holding their opponents to only .266 points per play. However, that number jumps to .450 on the road.
Will the high-upside nature of the Bucs shine in this game, or will the Colts’ consistency find success this weekend?
Buccaneers vs. Colts betting trends
The Buccaneers have struggled to cover the spread at times this season. Overall, they’ve posted a 4-6 against the spread (ATS) record in 2021. In fact, Tampa Bay is one of two teams that has yet to cover the spread on the road this season. They enter this game with an 0-5 road ATS record, failing to cover the spread by nearly 10 points per game.
The Colts have performed better overall, posting a 7-4 ATS record this season. They’ve only covered the spread in 50% of their games at home, though.
Indianapolis leads the NFL by hitting the over in 63.6% of their games this season. Tampa Bay’s been neutral, finding the over and under in exactly 50% of their games thus far.
With that being said, the Colts have hit the over in only 50% of their home games, while the Bucs have found the under more often than not on the road.
Buccaneers vs. Colts prediction
This is one of the more interesting games on the slate. Logically, I want to fade the Bucs as a small road favorite against a potential playoff team in the Colts.
The main issue is the specific matchup versus trends, though. Indianapolis relies so heavily on Jonathan Taylor, while Tampa Bay is allowing the second-lowest rushing yards percentage (24.3%) in the NFL.
Although I do have concerns with the Buccaneers’ struggles on the road, it’s tough to truly trust Carson Wentz to beat an elite team. I don’t necessarily believe the Bucs will fully shut down Taylor, but they should do enough to pick up another impressive victory.
Buccaneers vs. Colts Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Colts 24