The Tampa Bay Buccaneers–Houston Texans matchup features one team trying to snap a three-game losing streak, but it isn’t the team with the rookie quarterback. Here’s a look at how the two teams fare heading into this contest.
Buccaneers vs. Texans Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Spread:Â Texans -3
- Moneyline:Â Buccaneers (+124), Texans (-148)
- Over/Under:Â 40
- Game time:Â 1:00 PM ET
- Location:Â NRG Stadium
- Channel:Â CBS
Buccaneers vs. Texans Prediction
To say the Buccaneers haven’t reacted well to the bye week is an understatement. Since returning from their bye, they are 0-3 and their offense is averaging just 12.3 points per game.
A loss would drop Tampa Bay to 3-5 on the season and put it in a tough spot for a playoff chase, even in an NFC South Division where no one is better than .500 on the season.
That said, there are a couple of reasons I like the Buccaneers in this spot.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield, while not great by any standards throughout this three-game slide (three pass TDs, two INTs, 77.1 passer rating), did play much better in the Week 8 loss to the Buffalo Bills. He had two touchdown passes, no interceptions, and a 91.1 passer rating.
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Mayfield has four games this season with a passer rating of at least 90, and three of the four games have come on the road.
Wide receiver Mike Evans (507 receiving yards, five TD receptions) continues to play like a superstar. The problem for the Buccaneers is that the rest of the team has five touchdown receptions combined.
On the other sideline, rookie C.J. Stroud continues to impress, with just one interception in 237 pass attempts and a passer rating of 94.9, which ranks 11th among 32 qualified quarterbacks. In fact, he has a higher passer rating than players like Jalen Hurts (94.3), Trevor Lawrence (93.6), and Joe Burrow (87.5).
Oh yes, and a higher rating than Baker Mayfield (89.5).
But, has the bloom come off the rose for this favorite for the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?
His passing yards have been in decline every game since Week 4, and last week versus the Carolina Panthers was the second straight week he was held under 200 passing yards (finished with 140 passing yards).
To be fair, Stroud has almost no running game to help him out. Houston ranks 21st in rushing yards (91.9 YPG) and 30th in yards per carry (3.3). Leading rusher Dameon Pierce (327 yards) is averaging 3.0 yards per carry this season, which is the fewest in the NFL among players with at least 100 rush attempts.
Now, this season’s version of the Buccaneers’ defense will not remind anyone of the old Monte Kiffin defenses from 20+ years ago, especially against the pass, where this Bucs team ranks in the bottom five in passing yards allowed (256.0 YPG).
But Tampa Bay has only given up eight touchdown passes, tied for third-fewest in the NFL.
With three straight losses, the Buccaneers are reeling. But their 3-0 road record against the spread, all as an underdog, is something not to be overlooked. Neither is the fact that Houston has failed to cover the spread in its two games as a favorite.
And for those that think an all-time 0-6 record for the Buccaneers in Houston is a relevant note, then you won’t mind if I point out that Baker Mayfield is 3-0 all-time against rookie quarterbacks that attended Ohio State, right?
While Houston certainly has had its moments this season, it is also a team that prefers to be the hunter than the hunted. I think Mayfield will get the Bucs to bounce back and get a win. A cover seems almost certain.
Best Bet: Buccaneers +3 (-118 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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