The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have now lost six of their last seven games in an epic collapse that has head coach Todd Bowles on the hot seat.
After losing to the Carolina Panthers in Week 16, can the Bucs still make the playoffs or win the division? Let’s take a closer look at the Buccaneers’ chances of making the playoffs and what needs to happen for them to make the cut.
What Are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Chances of Making the Playoffs and Winning the NFC South?
After the loss, the Bucs now have a 43.7% chance of winning the division. Tampa Bay cannot sneak into the playoffs as a wild card team, so their only path to the postseason is by winning the NFC South, according to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor.
With that said, the Bucs can still make the playoffs, as they have a rematch against the Panthers in Week 18.
The road ahead is simple for Tampa Bay, even though their most recent stretch hasn’t been inspiring: they must beat Carolina in Week 18 (and hope the Panthers lose next week against the Seattle Seahawks).
Outside of their season finale against the Panthers, the Buccaneers also play the Miami Dolphins at home. The Dolphins have benched Tua Tagovailoa for Quinn Ewers, so the Buccaneers should have a decent chance at winning that game.
The Panthers, meanwhile, play a Seahawks team that just beat the projected 1-seed Rams, so a win is less likely for Carolina in their final non-divisional game in Week 17.
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The Buccaneers have a 50.5% chance of beating Miami, while Carolina only has a 30.2% chance of beating Seattle. If those percentages hold, or even if both teams lose their non-divisional matchups, Tampa Bay can still take the division by beating the Panthers in Week 18.
A split would bring both teams past the head-to-head tiebreaker, and would also leave both teams with the exact same in-division record. The next tiebreaker is record among common opponents. Right now, Tampa Bay leads Carolina with a 6-5 common opponents record, as opposed to Carolina’s 5-6.
If Carolina beats Seattle, however, and Tampa Bay loses to Miami, the Buccaneers would then be eliminated.
Ultimately, there are more outcomes that involve Tampa Bay winning the division, but the Buccaneers haven’t been a lock to win any recent games, and that invites trepidation in their projection.
Buccaneers’ Remaining 2025 Schedule
Let’s take a look at Tampa Bay’s remaining schedule after they dropped their third-straight game:
- Week 17: vs. Miami Dolphins
- Week 18: vs. Carolina Panthers
The Buccaneers, according to the PFSN NFL FPM, have an over 50% chance of winning both of these games, but they also had favorable matchups against the Saints, Falcons, and Panthers recently and failed to get the job done in any of those games.
Baker Mayfield has sharply regressed over the second half of the season, and Bowles’ defense has struggled mightily. Tampa Bay may still control its own destiny, but they’re also looking really rough during the most important stretch of the season.
