The Tampa Bay Buccaneers looked poised for another NFC South crown after opening the season with an impressive 5–1 record. But a difficult skid since Week 7 has tightened the race significantly, allowing the Carolina Panthers to climb back into contention and turn the division battle into a true toss-up.
Both Tampa Bay and Carolina now sit at seven wins, and the Buccaneers are entering a pivotal stretch that will determine not only their shot at the postseason but also whether they can maintain control of the NFC South race. After their Week 14 loss to the New Orleans Saints, can Tampa Bay still make the postseason?
What Are the Buccaneers’ Chances of Making the Playoffs?
For a team loaded with standout talent such as Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and rookie sensation Emeka Egbuka, expectations have always been high. Yet injuries have consistently disrupted the Bucs’ rhythm, preventing Tampa Bay from fielding its full arsenal at once.
That inconsistency has shown up in the standings. After a hot start, the Buccaneers have stumbled, dropping four of their last five games as their early-season momentum faded. Injury luck hasn’t swung back their way, either.
The low point of the season was the team’s Week 14 loss to the Saints, and it significantly impacted their playoff hopes. A win would’ve put Tampa Bay’s playoff odds at 75.9% (with a 73.6% chance of winning the division). However, the Saints’ upset victory now gives the Bucs just a 53.2% chance of making the playoffs and a 52.2% chance of winning the NFC South, according to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor.
Dropping this game in Week 14 turns the Bucs’ remaining schedule into a must-win gauntlet. If they take care of business against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 15 and win both games against the Panthers in Weeks 16 and 18, Tampa Bay can still win the division. However, the Bucs look like a completely different team than the one we saw earlier in the season, so it remains to be seen which version of the Bucs will show up down the stretch.
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Given the circumstances, the Buccaneers must approach every game with a playoff-level mentality. With both of its matchups against Carolina still ahead, Tampa Bay controls its destiny. Winning those head-to-head battles could firmly place them atop the division and secure their postseason ticket.
But with injuries piling up, nothing is guaranteed. It sounds like the Bucs will get Evans and Jalen McMillan back next week against Atlanta, which could give the offense a huge boost. But Todd Bowles’ defense continues to be a huge weakness for Tampa Bay.
After Week 14 against the Saints, Tampa Bay closes the season with matchups against the Falcons, Panthers, Dolphins, and another showdown with the Panthers, a stretch that will ultimately determine their postseason fate.
