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Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction, Pick: Who wins on Sunday Night Football?

Here's a pick and prediction for the Broncos vs. Chiefs Week 13 AFC West battle with crucial playoff implications.

This is one of the best matchups of the week. Teddy Bridgewater won the hearts of Broncos fans, battling his way back into the game and leading the team to a win over the rival Chargers. Now, they face the Chiefs, who lead the AFC West but have all three competitors just one game behind them. Let’s take a deep dive into Week 12’s Broncos vs. Chiefs game, look at the NFL odds, and make a prediction and pick for this divisional clash.

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs pick, prediction | Week 13

  • Spread: Chiefs -9.5 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Moneyline: Chiefs -450, Broncos +340
  • Over/Under: 48.5

Denver did exactly what it needed to do in Week 12 — take down the Chargers and insert themselves into the race for the AFC West. This week, they face perhaps an even more important divisional bout as they go toe to toe with the Chiefs, who are just one game ahead.

While it might not have been the tidiest win, the Broncos found a way to get it done in Week 12. Their rhythm was disrupted after starting the game strong when Bridgewater went down with a lower leg injury. The offense halted with Drew Lock in the game, and the former starter threw an interception on only 7 attempts.

There are two things, however, that remain true about the Broncos. Their defense is very good, and so is their run game. Denver currently sits third in the league in points allowed per game as their defense continues to halt opposing offenses. Meanwhile, the run game — with rookie Javonte Williams paired with Melvin Gordon — has been effective all year long.

The Chiefs’ offense is still not torching opponents

Yet, the Chiefs have woken up, and the Broncos have to face them twice before the season ends. After a slow start, Kansas City has won five of their last six and now sits atop the division again. While that might be the case, the offense has not been as explosive, nor consistent, as we’re accustomed to seeing.

The Chiefs only managed more than 21 points once in their last five games. They might be winning, but it’s the defense that’s stepping it up a notch, as the offense has actually slowed down.

Broncos vs. Chiefs betting trends

Given that they haven’t been scoring as much, the Chiefs have covered the over just once in their last six games. However, they continue to face high numbers well into the 50s, based on their reputation.

The oddsmakers dropped the over/under into the 40s for the Packers game in Week 9, which is the only time it’s been less than 53 for the Chiefs all season. This week against the Broncos, it’s 48.5 — the same as it was against Green Bay.

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Kansas City is also 4-7 against the spread and goes into the Broncos game with their second-largest line of the season. The only larger spread was the -10.5 against the Giants, which they failed to cover.

Denver is 6-5 against the spread, going 3-1 in their last four games. Yet, they have cashed five unders in a row and only hit the over twice all year.

Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction

The Chiefs did a good job forcing the Cowboys into throwing situations in their last game. Dak Prescott threw the ball 43 times, while Dallas only managed 16 rushing attempts. Kansas City will need to do the same thing against Denver and force Bridgewater to beat them through the air.

Denver will need to contain the deep threat and outmatch the Chiefs’ offense, something they have not done well in recent years. The Broncos have not beaten the Chiefs since 2015. Kansas City dominates the series in recent history, going 11-0 since that loss in 2015.

The Chiefs should win this one, but I don’t like the spread at all. I love the under, as I think both of these teams will score 21 points or less. Even if the Broncos can run the ball (which is getting more difficult against the Chiefs), running it consistently will be tough. I’ll take the Chiefs moneyline and the under here.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction: Chiefs 20, Broncos 17

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