The Denver Broncos will travel to Maryland to face the Baltimore Ravens in Week 9. Below is our early pick and prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of October 28, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
If you’re looking for the full slate of our picks and predictions, head over to our Early Week 9 Picks and Predictions.
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8, 44.5)
This line is fascinating because we just saw a very similar matchup in terms of a strong defense facing a strong offense and vice versa. In that matchup, the Cleveland Browns were able to overcome the Baltimore Ravens when the Ravens were favored by more than a touchdown. It’s exactly the same situation this week, with the Denver Broncos being a slightly more complete team.
Denver brings the best defense and the 23rd-best offense to this matchup. If this develops into a shootout, then they will probably lose. But if they can hold the Ravens to around 17-23 points, they have a chance.
Baltimore has the top-ranked offense and the 24th-ranked defense. There’s also a disadvantage on special teams, and while that is small, it adds up.
The Broncos are such a tough team because we keep waiting for their bubble to burst. To this point, they’ve faced the fifth-easiest schedule, but Denver’s defense is good enough to make you believe they can take on anyone. Just one of their five wins has been by less than one score, and they are 1-3 in one-score games, which could suggest there is more upside to be found.
The PFN Playoff Predictor gives the Ravens a 65% chance of victory, which seems fair. They just stumbled, but that was on the road. The right play based on the numbers is Denver +8, but betting on Bo Nix is difficult because he always feels like it could fall apart at any time.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Broncos 20
Pick: Pass
Broncos at Ravens Game Insights
Denver Broncos
Team: Both the Broncos and Ravens are 5-1 over their past six games, with Denver (+66) holding the significant edge in point differential (Baltimore: +43).
QB: Over the past two weeks, Bo Nix is just 1-11 when pressured (43-52 when not pressured). The Ravens rank 27th in pressure rate this season and are coming off of their two lowest pressure rates of the season.
Offense: The Broncos picked up 64.7% of third downs on Sunday, their first game over 36.4% this season.
Defense: The Broncos allow a first down on just 19.% of opponent rush attempts, the third lowest rate in the league (Vikings and Ravens).
Fantasy: Nix is still a raw prospect, but he’s cleared six fantasy points with his legs in four straight and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of those games.
Betting: Denver has covered seven of their past nine games when installed as an underdog by more than six points.
Baltimore Ravens
Team: The Ravens are 1-2 outright when favored by at least seven points this season (they were 17-3 in such spots over the previous four seasons).
QB: Blitz at your own risk – Lamar Jackson has completed 28-of-36 passes against the blitz over the past three weeks.
Offense: In Weeks 1-5, Jackson’s sack-per-pass attempt rate was 3.3%. Since then, it has remained at 8.1%.
Defense: Baltimore’s defensive success rate through four weeks stood at 62.3%, but it has plummeted to 53.4% since
Fantasy: Over his past six games, Zay Flowers has three with over 110 receiving yards and three with no more than 20. On the plus side, three of his five end zone targets this season came on Sunday in Cleveland.
Betting: Over tickets have cashed in six of Baltimore’s last eight home games (2-1 this season).
