The Denver Broncos are 12-2. They secured a playoff berth and are the AFC’s No. 1 seed. As well as being atop the AFC, they have the best record in the NFL. Powered by the their elite defense, the Broncos remain firmly in the hunt despite a challenging remaining schedule.
What Are The Broncos’ Chances For No. 1 Seed?
Denver’s defense has been a dominant force since the end of last season, and in 2025, it ranks second overall in PFSN’s Defense Impact metric at 90.1, trailing only the Houston Texans (92.2). While Sean Payton’s offense has been inconsistent, it still sits 13th overall with a 76.9 impact score, outperforming units like the Chiefs, Bengals, and Eagles.
The Broncos haven’t lost since Week 4. They notched their 11th-straight win in Week 15, clinching their spot in the playoffs. Their division chances rose to 90.40%, according to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor.
The New England Patriots fell to the Buffalo Bills. With Denver’s win and New England’s loss, Denver’s chances of landing the No. 1 seed rose to 74.1%.
Denver holds a one-game advantage over New England, whose chances of securing the AFC’s first seed are currently at 8.60%. The Broncos are 12-2, and the Patriots are 11-3.
Both teams face demanding schedules down the stretch. Because AFC losses hold extra weight in the tiebreak matrix, protecting the conference record is Denver’s most straightforward path to staying atop the race. The one-game lead is massive at this juncture, as the Patriots suffered an AFC loss in Week 15, doing damage to their conference record.
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The practical move for the Broncos would be to win AFC games, maximize head‑to‑head leverage, and let other contenders cannibalize each other. Denver’s No. 1 seed probability reflects how often that sequence hits in simulation. The Broncos only have AFC games remaining, though. Win out, and they don’t have to worry about a tiebreaker. If they win two of three, they should be in a good position as well.
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In short, Denver controls its fate. Win the AFC matchups, maintain tiebreak leverage, and the road to the Super Bowl may well run through Denver.
Here are the Broncos’ remaining matchups:
- Week 16: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 17: at Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 18: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Broncos haven’t locked up the division, and these matchups are no slouches. The Jaguars are coming off a huge victory, and the Chargers could be playing for the division in Week 18 if the Broncos slip up in the next two weeks. The good news for the Broncos is that they will be playing a Chiefs team that has nothing to play for and are without Patrick Mahomes, who tore his ACL in Week 15.
If the Broncos take care of business in Week 16 against Jacksonville, they will be a near-lock to win the division and be on the verge of locking up the No. 1 seed in the AFC. It will likely go down to the last week of the season, but Denver is in the driver’s seat.