Through two seasons, San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy is one of the most efficient quarterbacks in NFL history. Despite limited passing volume, he’s been able to produce QB1 numbers in fantasy football. Can we continue to project Purdy to be an outlier?
Brock Purdy’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 19.7
- Passing Yards: 4,445
- Pass TDs: 35.8
- Rushing Yards: 110
- Rush TDs: 2.5
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft tool.
Should You Draft Purdy This Year?
The Kyle Shanahan system is so friendly to quarterbacks that it’s hard to say definitively that Purdy is great at football. I think he is, but Jimmy Garoppolo made a Super Bowl in this system. It works so well that it’s hard to tell, especially for a guy like Purdy, who truly came out of nowhere.
Through two seasons, Purdy has eclipsed a 7% touchdown rate in both years. Last year, he led the league in yards per completion, yards per attempt, and adjusted yards per attempt. Volume is king in fantasy… except when it comes to Purdy.
Part of the problem is that the 49ers are such a dominant team. They are rarely in a position where they need to throw. However, even in a neutral game script, this is a team that only threw 54% of the time, tied for the ninth-lowest rate in the league.
San Francisco also plays slow, averaging 31.1 seconds per snap in neutral game script. It may not seem like a lot, but they were 1.2 seconds slower than the next-slowest team. That’s a staggering difference.
The 49ers ran the seventh-fewest plays in the league. Amidst all of this, Purdy was somehow able to throw for 4,280 yards and 31 touchdowns in 16 starts.
The difficulty in projecting Purdy’s production is there’s no reason to project any increase in passing volume. The 49ers are bringing back the entirety of their offensive core — Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey.
I projected Purdy for just 505 pass attempts, which is actually an increase of two attempts per game from last season. It’s very difficult to project a non-rushing quarterback throwing that little, and it’s also difficult to avoid projecting a decrease in efficiency.
As a result, Purdy projects out at 18.45 fantasy points per game, landing at QB13. The primary difference between my projections and PFN consensus is five fewer TD passes. I just can’t project anyone to maintain a 7% touchdown rate.
In modern fantasy football, it’s very difficult to project top-half QB1 numbers without significant rushing upside. For guys like C.J. Stroud and Joe Burrow, at least we can project heavy passing volume. Purdy is a unicorn in that he doesn’t come with rushing or passing volume.
I ranked Purdy as my QB13. While I do think he finishes higher than that, I don’t see a path to a high-end QB1 season. Even if I wait on quarterback, that’s the upside I’m chasing. And if I can’t get that anywhere, I can just draft Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, or Kirk Cousins multiple rounds after Purdy.
