The Jacksonville Jaguars drafted Brian Thomas Jr. No. 23 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft and are excited about his on-field outlook. Yet, we are here to discuss Thomas’ fantasy football outlook for the upcoming season.
The pieces are in place for Thomas to excel right away within Jacksonville’s potent offense following the team’s departure with former WR1 Calvin Ridley. Trevor Lawrence has been looking for a wide receiver who can take over the game and provide a deep threat to pair with his love of throwing the deep ball (Lawrence threw the third-most passes over 20+ yards).
With that in mind, let’s break down Thomas’ fantasy outlook for the 2024 season.
Brian Thomas Jr.’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Season
Thomas offers a good combination of size and speed that you want on your fantasy team. He stands at 6’4″ and over 200 pounds. That size will allow Lawrence to stick with his love and dominance of deep-ball passing.
Thomas has long, smooth strides that produce excellent top speed, enabling him to threaten vertically against any defense. He also shows his ability to grow as he continues to work on his weak points, such as his footwork, elevating it as he did in 2023.
Thomas is also a very competitive blocker, which head coach Doug Pederson will love. Thus, he’s likely to earn more snaps in his rookie season.
To continue to earn more playing time, Thomas will have to fix a few issues within his game. His catch percentage is a cause for concern as it was lower than most teams would prefer in his college career. He also isn’t a make-you-miss type of wide receiver, meaning you won’t see many yards after catch (YAC) from him.
Finally, the Jaguars need to envelop Thomas’ training camp with press coverage since he didn’t face this coverage much in college. The NFL will make sure they throw his strides off from the beginning of the play with this foreign press technique.
Is Thomas a Good Fantasy Pick?
Thomas is the perfect draft selection at his average draft position (ADP) of No. 124 overall.
Our favorite draft strategy is to draft for upside, especially in the later rounds. Thomas has all the big-play ability to help elevate your fantasy team’s ceiling in 2024. He also lands in another favorite rule of ours, which is to draft good players from good offenses.
Jacksonville’s offense is one of the better ones in the NFL, and Thomas has elevated his game every year as his PFF grade progressed in each of his three college seasons.
The biggest issue with drafting Thomas is knowing that, at first, he may need a few weeks to progress to the point of becoming a primary weapon in an offense that has Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Travis Etienne Jr., and Gabe Davis.
We also have to worry about his Week 12 bye week, which comes at a crucial point in the season when every victory counts for us to make the fantasy playoffs. But even with these risks, the rewards outweigh them, and we should feel comfortable drafting Thomas this season.