A key part of any fantasy football strategy is to identify potential breakouts each season. The term breakout is not a one-size-fits-all, as players can develop in several different ways. Ultimately, from a fantasy perspective, we are looking for a player to take that next step toward their potential and, with it, provide fantasy value on their current ADP.
Let’s examine which players in the AFC could be breakout candidates for the 2024 season.
Which Players Could Be Primed To Break Out for Fantasy Managers in 2024?
Baltimore Ravens: Zay Flowers
Baltimore Ravens WR Zay Flowers had a great rookie year where he flashed plenty of playmaking ability on all three levels of the field.
The overall production of 77 receptions for 858 yards and five scores on 108 targets should be viewed very optimistically when you realize how dedicated offensive coordinator Todd Monken was to getting Flowers the football.
Flowers was among the WR leaders in manufactured touches, catching 23 screen passes last year — tied for third, trailing behind just Tyreek Hill and Ja’Marr Chase.
Additionally, Flowers showcased his formation versatility (29% of his snaps coming from the slot), separation ability (2.27 yards of separation per target, seventh among receivers), and YAC ability (391 yards after the catch). All feel like encouraging signs for a player entering his second NFL season.
The removal of Odell Beckham Jr. from Baltimore’s offense only means Flowers’ role should expand this upcoming year.
Buffalo Bills: Khalil Shakir
What do you get when you have an elite RAC (run after catch) threat set for an expanded role in one of the highest-scoring offenses with a receiver room that just vacated 241 targets, 152 receptions, 1,929 yards, and 15 touchdowns from the roster?
The answer is a potential breakout candidate in Buffalo Bills WR Khalil Shakir.
Admittedly, the additions of both Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman give every Bills WR a realistic chance at a breakout season in 2024. Yet, when Shakir saw his role expand in the middle of his sophomore season, I’d argue he made the most of his opportunities.
From Week 8 through the rest of the regular season, Shakir was the WR46 in full-PPR formats. He totaled 31 receptions for 536 yards and one score, with an average of 9.2 fantasy points per game through that span.
Additionally, Shakir’s flashes of his RAC capabilities flirted with falling into the elite category. His average of 7.2 yards after the catch ranked third behind only Deebo Samuel Sr. and Rashee Rice for players with 30+ receptions in 2023. This showcased that Shakir can be a very productive player when he has the ball in his hands.
Josh Allen is going to have to throw the ball to someone. Shakir is the only receiver Allen has an existing rapport with from last year, which could give him an outside chance to lead Buffalo in targets. If that comes to fruition, Shakir has top-20 upside at the WR position in full-PPR formats.
Cincinnati Bengals: Zack Moss
The Cincinnati Bengals’ decision to release Joe Mixon this offseason creates a void in the fantasy role for the backfield, one that has consistently produced a player with at least 1,200+ total yards and 9+ total TDs over the last three years.
This leaves the newly acquired Zack Moss and second-year RB Chase Brown competing for touches in this backfield. Brown has plenty of burst and big-play ability, but I’d argue Moss is better suited for full-time duties.
Moss’ ability to handle bell-cow duties was on display with the Indianapolis Colts last year. He was the RB8 overall in full-PPR formats from Weeks 2-4 last year with 66 rushing attempts, 280 yards, and two scores. For some context, that topped Brown’s entire rushing production from his rookie year.
Lastly, Moss projects as the better short-yardage option near the goal line. He converted three of his nine carries into scores from inside the five-yard line last year. For some additional context, Brown’s red-zone rushing production was four carries for -13 yards — likely why he didn’t see a single carry inside the five-yard line in 2023.
Brown has intriguing upside, but I’ll take the option of who projects as the leading ball carrier and short yardage option in a high-powered offense.
Cleveland Browns: Jerome Ford
Jerome Ford’s second NFL season should be considered a major success because fantasy managers had virtually non-existent expectations for the Cincinnati product.
In a season where starter Nick Chubb suffered a season-ending injury in September, Ford filled in admirably with 813 rushing yards, 44 receptions, 319 receiving yards, and nine scores on 248 total touches — good enough for an RB16 overall finish.
Chubb’s return at some point this season will undoubtedly cap Ford’s upside, but Cleveland’s backfield has produced multiple top-20 backs in the past. In 2020, Chubb and Kareem Hunt finished the year as the RB11 and RB10, respectively, in full-PPR formats.
Is it that farfetched that Ford continues to see work alongside a recovering Chubb for the entire season?
Denver Broncos: Jaleel McLaughlin
Fantasy managers who believe in Javonte Williams may not be happy to see his name not on this breakout candidate list. But the truth of the matter is that Jaleel McLaughlin simply looked better than Williams for the majority of the 2023 NFL season.
McLaughlin averaged 5.4 yards per carry, managed to catch 31 of 36 targets for 160 yards, and found the end zone three times on his 107 total touches working behind Williams. The yards-per-carry mark is far superior to Williams’ 3.6 — marking the third straight season where Williams’ per-carry efficiency has dropped.
The lack of expectations for Denver’s retooled offense, combined with McLaughlin’s smaller frame, reasonably push his name down fantasy draft boards. But if the Youngstown State product continues to be the more hyper-efficient back in 2024, then don’t be surprised if he leads Dallas in total touches this year.
Houston Texans: Tank Dell
Houston Texans WR Tank Dell’s small stature may have caused fantasy managers to doubt his potential effectiveness entering the NFL, but his 47 receptions for 709 yards and seven touchdowns on 75 targets in just 11 games quickly silenced those skeptics.
On a fantasy-points-per-game (PPG) basis, Dell looked like a future fantasy star, finishing as the WR19 overall with 15.0 PPG.
The breakout year from Nico Collins combined with the addition of Stefon Diggs does give him some of the best target competition in the league, but Dell’s big-play ability should allow for him to make a big enough impact in a high-powered offense to put him in line for a breakout season.
Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson
As we are all aware by now, elite dual-threat quarterbacks can act as a fantasy football cheat code. Well, in the two full games we saw from Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson last year, he looked like a potential league-winner in the making at the position.
Anthony Richardson Fantasy Production in 2023 When Playing More Than 95% of the Offensive Snaps
- Week 1: 223 passing yards, 40 rushing yards, Three total TDs (QB4 overall)
- Week 4: 200 passing yards, 56 rushing yards, Three total TDs (QB2 overall)
The sample size is undoubtedly small, but Richardson’s fantasy upside in this Shane Steichen scheme — which helped Jalen Hurts become a top-five fantasy quarterback — makes him the easy breakout pick from this offense in 2024.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Brian Thomas Jr.
The Jacksonville Jaguars saw good production from Calvin Ridley last year, but not enough to keep him around at the cost of a second-round pick and a new deal.
This offense needed a top-tier vertical threat to help unlock Trevor Lawrence’s true potential under center, which makes the dynamic Brian Thomas Jr. the final missing piece for this Jags’ offense.
Thomas’ exceptional size (6’3”, 209 pounds), elite speed (4.33-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine), and explosive athleticism (38.5” vertical jump) all appeared on the tape from his 2023 season. He has the physical tools to be a menace as a vertical threat operating as an X or Z receiver at the professional level.
A slow start to training camp for a rookie wideout whose best attributes entering the pros didn’t involve technical refinement shouldn’t be too concerning yet.
A pessimist would likely start to wonder if Thomas’ 68 receptions for 1,177 yards and 17 TDs last year — his lone season of noteworthy production in college — were more a product of his exceptional athleticism flourishing alongside another elite WR while catching passes from a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback at a lower level of competition.
Fantasy managers should likely temper their fantasy expectations for Thomas early in the season while he acclimates to this offense, but he should be capable of some huge fantasy performances down the home stretch as his role expands significantly over the back half of his rookie year.
Kansas City Chiefs: Rashee Rice
There is no way to avoid this topic… Rashee Rice could face a suspension from the league stemming from potential felony charges this offseason.
Yet, notice I used the word could when describing a potential suspension. There has been no discipline from the NFL at this time regarding Rice’s off-the-field incident. This means he also could play the entire 2024 NFL season before the legal process plays out.
If Rice does avoid league discipline in 2024, then he should be in the low-end WR1 conversation entering his second year in the league.
Once Rice’s role expanded around the middle of last season, he was the WR16 with an average of 15.4 fantasy PPG in full-PPR formats, which was the same mark we saw from Puka Nacua and A.J. Brown from Weeks 8 through 17 of last year.
He ranked third amongst receivers with 654 YAC last year, which put him among the elite producers at the position in that category.
Sure, the team did add two speedy receivers in Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy to the mix this offseason, but I’d argue this helps open things up for him underneath in 2024.
Rice comes with plenty of risk, but he does have true top-10 upside at the WR position if he plays the entire 2024 NFL season.
Las Vegas Raiders: Brock Bowers
I can already hear people screaming through their phones that I am crazy for not picking Zamir White as the breakout fantasy player in Las Vegas this year. Well, I’m equally crazy about Brock Bowers being the next great tight end in the NFL.
Bowers enters the league with arguably the best production profile of any TE we have ever seen. His 175 receptions for 2,538 yards and 26 receiving touchdowns combined with his 193 rushing yards and five rushing scores at the TE position over his three years at a college football powerhouse gives him one of the most productive and dynamic prospects profiles in CFB history.
Some fantasy pundits will be quick to argue that his landing spot with the Raiders is horrible because the quarterback play is terrible and Michael Mayer is already there.
News flash: Bowers isn’t just a TE prospect, he’s a certified weapon who can create mismatches with linebackers, safeties, and even smaller cornerbacks. This was evident when we saw Bowers in his first preseason action, where he lined up at TE, slot WR, outside, and fullback over his first 10 snaps. That is the definition of a moveable weapon.
Bowers’ lateral agility, twitchy acceleration, and play strength through contact are all objectively elite, making him a problem to get to the ground.
Better yet, problems have an answer. The better way to describe his elite RAC ability is to label him an issue in that regard because I don’t believe an answer exists for opposing defenses. Don’t overthink this, Bowers is an elite playmaking talent and will find instant fantasy success in the NFL.
Los Angeles Chargers: Ladd McConkey
For those of you keeping track, 229 receptions and 2,339 receiving yards from the previous season have been completely removed from the Chargers’ roster. These departures meant the pass-catching collection of talent on Los Angeles’ roster heading into the 2024 NFL Draft consisted of Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer, DJ Chark Jr., and Hayden Hurst.
No offense to any of the players just mentioned, but that doesn’t exactly sound like an imposing enough group to strike fear into the hearts of opposing defenses, even with Justin Herbert under center.
Yet, help has arrived in the form of Ladd McConkey.
For those of you who are unfamiliar with his game from his collegiate days with the Georgia Bulldogs, he is a versatile, lightning-quick, explosive playmaker who threatens defenses vertically with his 4.39 speed. He’s equally capable of torturing ill-equipped defenders who can’t compete with his elite short-area burst as an underneath RAC threat or contributor as a ball carrier with designed rushing touches.
McConkey’s post-graduate-level route-running prowess shows up all over the film with great tempo variation, textbook stem IQ to attack defenders’ leverage, and balletic-type controlled footwork at the breakpoint — which helps him snap down and instantly accelerate out of his breaks to force social-distancing-like separation between him and his defender.
After the departures of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett, there are 320 targets up for grabs from last season. Do we think McConkey isn’t going to see a hefty amount of those looks from one of the best quarterbacks in the league in 2024?
Miami Dolphins: Jaylen Wright
This could feel like déjà vu for fantasy managers who were bullish on De’Von Achane’s fantasy outlook entering his rookie year last season.
Well, the Dolphins doubled down on their investment at the running back position by selecting another explosive ball carrier in Jaylen Wright, who has already made a great impression on the coaching staff with his 55 yards and a score on 10 carries in his first preseason game.
Raheem Mostert is coming off of a career year with an absurd 21 total touchdowns in 2023, but he will be 32 years old this season. Is it really that far-fetched to think an aging running back who has a lengthy track record of durability issues could regress a bit this year?
If that is the case, then Wright immediately stands to work alongside Achane and form what could be the scariest big-play RB duo in the NFL.
New England Patriots: Ja’Lynn Polk
The candidates for leading the New England Patriots in targets in 2024 are DeMario Douglas, Hunter Henry, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Javon Baker. No disrespect to other pass catchers on the roster, but my money is on Polk to be the big winner.
Polk’s formation versatility and strong hands could make him an excellent big slot target who can destroy zone coverage. He may not possess the elite vertical speed to become either Drake Maye or Jacoby Brissett’s go-to guy for big shots down the field, but his run-after-catch ability and contested-catch expertise make him a threat to work the short and intermediate range of the field, which presents plenty of fantasy value.
Polk’s versatility and reliable hands give him a path to being a reliable fantasy producer in his rookie year.
New York Jets: Garrett Wilson
Garrett Wilson has been stuck in quarterback hell through the first two years of his NFL career. The fact he has managed to catch 178 passes for 2,145 yards and seven scores while playing mostly with Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, Tim Boyle, and Mike White makes a case that he is quarterback-proof.
Well, do we believe the New York Jets offense will average more than 171 passing yards and 15 points per game this upcoming season with Aaron Rodgers under center? If your answer to that question is yes, then you best believe that Wilson is going to be one of the main reasons why.
A dynamic playmaker like Wilson, who can line up all over the formation and win on all three levels of the football field, could lead to the type of target funnel Davante Adams enjoyed with Rodgers during their days together with the Green Bay Packers.
Pass on Wilson at your own risk.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Jaylen Warren
When you take a closer look at the production from the Steelers’ backfield last year, it was painfully clear who the more efficient option was.
Pittsburgh Steelers 2023 Running Back Stats
- Najee Harris: 284 total touches, 1,205 total yards, Eight TDs (RB23)
- Jaylen Warren: 210 total touches, 1,154 total yards, Four TDs (RB22)
His 5.5 yards per touch blew Harris’ 4.2 mark out of the water by a wide margin as well, making him the most efficient back with the more valuable fantasy role in full-PPR formats.
Warren would feel like the runaway fantasy option if not for Harris doubling up Warren’s carries inside the five-yard line last year (8-4). That suggests Harris is the clear preferred option when Pittsburgh gets in the red zone, which could carry greater significance if the offense generates more scoring opportunities with either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields under center this year.
Yet, the receiving production is what fantasy managers are trusting to justify selecting Warren in 2024.
Jaylen Warren Receiving Production (Positional Rank)
- Targets: 74 (T-5th)
- Receptions: 61 (5th)
- Receiving Yards: 370 (13th)
Warren is the more dynamic ball carrier and reliable pass catcher in an offense that wants to run the ball early, often, and always. If Warren continues to outproduce Harris at this rate, then don’t be surprised if he leads the team in total touches from this backfield at the end of this season.
Tennessee Titans: Tyjae Spears
The Tennessee Titans’ decision to sign free-agent running back Tony Pollard to a market-value contract may have deterred some fantasy managers from fully investing in Tyjae Spears entering the 2024 NFL season. I’m here to tell you that I still have my ticket to the Spears’ breakout party set to take place this year.
Spears still managed an RB34 overall finish with 453 rushing yards to go with 52 receptions for 385 yards and three total scores in his rookie year, operating exclusively behind Derrick Henry.
Spears’ 5.5 yards per touch ranked sixth at the RB position, and he flashed impressive elusiveness and burst over his entire rookie campaign.
To further the argument behind his efficiency, he averaged 2.7 yards before contact per attempt and 1.9 yards after contact per attempt — the exact marks we saw from Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson in his rookie year.
Keep in mind that he did this while operating behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last season.
If Spears maintains his encouraging per-touch efficiency metrics while Pollard continues to struggle, then don’t be surprised if he leads this backfield in total touches and fantasy points in 2024.