It has been an offseason filled with speculation about San Francisco 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk’s future with the organization.
With a potential trade hanging in the balance, let’s take a closer look at Aiyuk’s fantasy football projections and whether fantasy managers should still draft him to their team for the 2024 season.
Brandon Aiyuk’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 271.1
- Receptions: 86.6
- Receiving Yards: 1,323.7
- Receiving TDs: 8.3
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Over the last two years, Aiyuk’s leading role in this 49ers passing attack has given fantasy managers a pretty solid floor of production.
Brandon Aiyuk Stats Since 2022
- 2023: 105 targets, 75 receptions, 1,342 yards, and 7 TDs (WR14 overall)
- 2022: 114 targets, 78 receptions, 1,015 yards, and 8 TDs (WR15 overall)
The small drop in targets, receptions and touchdowns last year is understandable when you recall Aiyuk actually missed one game. Yet, his 328 additional receiving yards in one fewer game on three fewer receptions made him one of the most efficient producers at the position in 2023.
Aiyuk’s advanced metric stats from last year all suggest he is a great fantasy asset for your squad. His average depth of target (13.8 yards), air yards (1,447), yards per route run (3.18), and yards after catch (382) all ranked inside the top 20 at the position.
This high level of efficiency gave him the second-highest yards per reception figure in the league at 17.9, which partly underscores why the 49ers’ offense was so explosive through the air in 2023.
Aiyuk mostly operates as an X receiver on the outside who excels on in-breaking routes over the middle of the field. This skill set is particularly useful in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s heavy play-action scheme designed to create chunk plays in the passing game behind the linebackers — who are forced to respect the running game with Christian McCaffrey gouging them on the ground.
As for this projection, 89 receptions would be a career high by a significant margin. For some perspective, Aiyuk has never caught more than 78 passes in a season. Admittedly, I’m a bit skeptical about him hitting this mark while competing for targets with McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and a talented rookie prospect (Ricky Pearsall) in an offense that threw the ball just 30 times a game last season — which ranked 30th in the league.
Additionally, I do believe there is still an outside shot Aiyuk could be traded ahead of the start of the 2024 season, but I will not drop him in the rankings or project a trade to impact this projection.
Assuming Aiyuk wears a Niners’ uniform for the entirety of 2024 campaign, this projection doesn’t feel too aggressive considering how productive this San Francisco offense has been with Brock Purdy under center.
Should You Draft Aiyuk This Year?
Aiyuk’s ADP at No. 19 overall in the second round as the WR14 off the board showcases the faith fantasy managers still have in the former Arizona State wideout at the moment. For some additional context, Aiyuk is currently being drafted behind Davante Adams, Chris Olave, and Nico Collins at the position.
Since the two sides appear to have made amends entering the upcoming season, Aiyuk is a very productive big-play threat in one of the league’s premier offenses. The target share will always be capped because of the talent around him, which likely keeps him from entering truly elite territory but still makes him a great option capable of outstanding performances for your fantasy squad in 2024.
