The first month is a tricky time for rookies, who typically receive plenty of preseason hype but don’t always see much work early. The key for fantasy managers is identifying the right time to add those rookies before their value becomes obvious to the whole league.
Braelon Allen and Bucky Irving have both been on the upswing in recent weeks, but should they be rostered entering Week 5? Pro Football Network’s Start/Sit Optimizer has Irving as the slightly superior option, with a projection of 9.0 points compared to 8.7 for Allen.
Below we examine why there is actually more separation between the two backs than those projections suggest.
Should You Add Braelon Allen or Bucky Irving in Week 5?
Both should already be rostered in deeper leagues, with Allen serving as a clear handcuff to Breece Hall and Irving starting to eat into Rachaad White’s snaps. Each rookie has seen an uptick in playing time recently — Irving played a season-high 40.5% of the offensive snaps on Sunday and also had his first career touchdown. And since playing 16.3% of the snaps in Week 1, Allen has cleared the 30% participation threshold in every game.
The difference between the two lies in the immediate upside, as Irving has a reasonable path to becoming Tampa Bay’s starting running back. Through Week 4, Irving ranks seventh in the NFL with 5.8 yards per rush. White ranks last at 2.8 yards per rush.
Allen has been the more explosive option compared to Hall (4.8 yards per carry to 3.1), but the latter has a track record of being a big-play threat. Over his first two seasons, Hall averaged 4.8 yards per carry. Even after an abysmal 10-carry, four-yard performance in Sunday’s loss to the Denver Broncos, New York Jets coach Robert Saleh reaffirmed Hall’s role as the alpha back:
#Jets HC Robert Saleh on his decision to not use Braelon Allen at the goal line:
“Definitely something we can look at… But like I’ve said, we’re always gonna lean on Breece [Hall]. He’s our workhorse back.” pic.twitter.com/7I8DXRYzdX
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 29, 2024
Conversely, Todd Bowles’ actions suggest that Irving is slowly but surely assuming the lead-back role for the Bucs. The latest sign was his increased goal-line work.
After getting zero carries from inside the 10-yard line over the first three games, Irving got four on Sunday versus the Philadelphia Eagles. In comparison, White received none. On his three carries from inside the 10-yard line this season, White has not scored on any of them.
RB Bucky Irving (TB): Rachaad White had 12 touches to Irving’s 11. It’s clear that the Bucs want to get Irving involved regularly. With 55 yards and a TD on 11 touches, White’s value definitely takes a hit as the two seem to be sharing time evenly. pic.twitter.com/U0PWM3XmNZ
— Joshua Cho (@jbchoknows) September 30, 2024
Both Irving and Allen are high-upside options who would become immediate must-starts if their backfield running mates went down. As such, they should both be rostered outside of very shallow leagues if still available.
But when it comes to the immediate future, Irving is your best bet if you’re in need of a Week 5 starter. Irving also gets an easier matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (10th in fantasy points per game allowed to RBs this season) compared to Allen, who is going to London to face the Minnesota Vikings (third in fantasy PPG allowed to RBs).