The Bills cannot only square the head-to-head with the Patriots if they beat them this weekend, but they can also match win-loss records as they fight it out for the AFC East title and a premium playoff spot. Let’s look at the Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Week 16 matchup, the NFL odds, and make a pick and prediction.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots pick, prediction | Week 16
- Spread: Patriots -2.5 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Patriots -140, Bills +120
- Over/Under: 43.5
The Patriots are only one game ahead of Buffalo, and given that they’ve already beaten the Bills once, a win this weekend would seal the division. They’d then have a 2-0 head-to-head record against Buffalo, leaving no possibility for the Bills to leapfrog them before the regular season ends.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]
New England did a good job keeping Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense quiet in their last matchup two weeks ago, which finished with a 14-10 final score. The game was widely talked about because Mac Jones only attempted 3 passes the whole day, and the Patriots simply bullied the Bills’ defense with a smashmouth ground game all day.
New England’s top two running backs — Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson — had almost 200 yards on the ground that day. Bills safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer were not happy when a reporter asked if Buffalo’s performance was “embarrassing,” and they’ll be looking to seek revenge. They had a right to take offense, as the Bills only gave up 14 points despite the powerful run game from the Patriots — but Buffalo’s offense could not match that total.
Buffalo seeks blueprint to force Mac Jones to throw
The Colts laid it out for Buffalo on prime time Saturday night. They successfully plugged the run and forced Jones to try and win the game through the air. While it was a valiant effort from the young quarterback, it wasn’t quite enough — and the Bills will need to do the exact same thing this weekend. Force Mac to throw, bait him into rookie errors, and they might have a shot at tying up the division.
Heading into a division matchup with heavy playoff implications against one of the best defenses in the league, a more successful day of offense will be a confidence booster for the Bills. Allen and his guys will need to put at least 21 points on the board to win the game, and they will know that the 10 points they managed in the last contest with New England simply won’t be enough.
Bills vs. Patriots betting trends
The Patriots were on a seven-game win streak before they lost to the Colts this past weekend, and they’d covered the spread in every single one of those wins. While they might have lost the streak, they’re still 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight outings. They’ve also cashed the under in three of their last four.
[the_ad_group id=”61553″]
The Bills covered a hefty 14.5-point spread in Carolina’s favor in their matchup last weekend. They have now covered overs in back-to-back weeks, with the offense scoring 58 points across those two games.
Bills vs. Patriots prediction
I’m going to go with the Bills in a gritty revenge game this week. I can’t see how they allow Jones to throw the ball only 3 times. They’ll have done whatever it takes to figure out how to slow the run enough to force passing situations.
It’ll be a fairly low-scoring game, and I like the under, too. But I’m going with Buffalo to squeeze out the win and tie it up at the top of the division, making those final two weeks in the AFC East very interesting.
Bills vs. Patriots Prediction: Bills 17, Patriots 14
