Bijan Robinson didn’t have a shortage of hype train conductors entering the NFL in 2023. Yet, his frustrating usage and inconsistent production left many fantasy football managers disappointed with his RB9 finish in his rookie season.
After an overhaul of the Atlanta Falcons coaching staff and an upgrade at the quarterback position this offseason, should fantasy managers double down on Robinson being an RB1-overall candidate in 2024?
Bijan Robinson’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
If you want to give yourself an upset stomach, then just take a closer look at Tyler Allgeier’s usage compared to Robinson’s last season.
2023 Rushing Stats:
- Robinson: 214 carries, 976 yards (4.6 YPC), four TDs
- Allgeier: 186 carries, 683 yards (3.7 YPC), four TDs
If that isn’t nauseating enough, Allgeier seeing twice as many carries inside the five-yard line as Robinson last year should be enough to make fantasy managers vomit. If that wasn’t enough to make you sick, then here is the real cherry on top of the expired milkshake. Robinson saw the exact same amount of carries inside the five-yard line as third-string running back Cordarrelle Patterson, a grand total of two.
For some perspective, Robinson saw fewer carries inside the five-yard line last season than Chris Rodriguez Jr., Samaje Perine, Ty Chandler, Rico Dowdle, Kenneth Gainwell, and Royce Freeman. Yikes.
Thankfully, this egregious coaching malpractice wasn’t left unpunished, as Arthur Smith was promptly fired after the conclusion of the 2023 NFL season. This cleared the way for new head coach Raheem Morris to hire Zac Robinson — who has spent the last five years on the Los Angeles Rams offensive coaching staff working under Sean McVay — as the new offensive coordinator.
This is the same offensive staff that featured Kyren Williams in the Rams’ backfield last season, who finished with a league-high 21.7 total touches per game in 2023. Robinson averaged just 16.0 total touches per game last year, which was slightly lower than Javonte Williams (16.5), Chuba Hubbard (16.3), and Najee Harris (16.7).
Robinson seeing just 28 more carries than Allgeier — despite Robinson averaging nearly a full yard more carry — in 2023 definitely lowered his fantasy floor a bit, especially in an offense that produced just 47 trips to the red zone last year — 25th in the league due to inconsistent quarterback play.
However, another reason to be encouraged for a breakout year for Robinson in 2024 is the addition of Kirk Cousins at quarterback. Cousins executed this McVay offensive scheme at a fairly high level in Minnesota and Washington, which could certainly help the offensive production across the board for the Falcons.
Despite Robinson’s disappointing rookie season, he still finished as a top-10 fantasy RB with 1,463 total yards, 58 receptions, and eight TDs. If these changes impact Robinson’s usage and red-zone opportunities the way we can reasonably expect them to, then the sky could be the limit for Robinson in 2024.
For a second consecutive year, fantasy managers who believe that Robinson’s exceptional talent could lead to fantasy excellence will have to pay a premium price to have the second-year back anchor their fantasy team in 2024.
Robinson’s current ADP sits at No. 5 overall, RB3 off the board. Admittedly, that is a steep price to pay for a player who hasn’t produced elite numbers yet in his career. He’s currently being selected ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown, who outscored Robinson in full-PPR formats by 84 fantasy points in 2023.
Yet, improvement to the offense paired with a new offensive coordinator and a significant upgrade at the quarterback position all project as positives for Robinson’s fantasy outlook in 2024.
Ultimately, I believe in Robinson as an elite talent at the RB position. I do believe his role will expand significantly this season. I do believe Allgeier is going to see far fewer carries this year. And I believe Robinson will be among the league leaders in explosive plays, yards after contact per attempt, and yards per touch.
That is why Robinson is worth the No. 6 overall pick in fantasy drafts this season. I encourage those who are on the clock in fantasy drafts to have faith in Robinson’s talent and watch him live up to the high expectations many had for him last year in 2024.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Insights on Bijan Robinson
Perhaps I shouldn’t admit this, but there was a point during August of last year when I considered ranking Robinson as the overall RB1 … as a rookie. That’s how excited I was about his prospects. Fortunately, I came to my senses and left McCaffrey ahead of him.
While I avoided what would have looked horrible in hindsight, the process behind being super high on Robinson was there. The history of early first-round running backs producing very well in fantasy is strong. That, combined with Robinson’s obvious talent, made him worthy of being a first-round pick in fantasy. Unfortunately, we all failed to adequately account for Arthur Smith.
The Falcons’ former head coach oversaw a team that took a mega-talented running back at No. 8 overall and decided that guy wasn’t deserving of seeing more than 47% of his team’s carries. Why? Because he needed to give the ball to (checks notes) fifth-round sophomore RB Tyler Allgeier and 31-year-old WR/RB convert Cordarrelle Patterson.
Replacing Smith as head coach is Raheem Morris — a defensive guy. What Morris won’t do is get in the way of his new offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson, who hails from the Sean McVay school of coaching.
It’s very easy to fall into the trap of not drafting players who burned you the year before. While that often comes with a drop in ADP, making taking them again more palatable, Robinson should certainly be exempt even with his ADP rising.
Robinson is going as the RB2, No. 5 overall. The fantasy community is giving Robinson a complete mulligan for his 2023 season. Significant progression is baked into his ADP.
Even with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, Robinson could easily have averaged 17+ fantasy points per game last season had he had a remotely competent head coach.
Now, not only is Robinson poised to see a boost from proper usage, but he will see a boost from Kirk Cousins making this offense better as a whole. Robinson is a threat for 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns this season. It’s in his range of outcomes.
It’s very much a toss-up between him and Breece Hall as the RB2. There’s no wrong answer. I lean toward Robinson and have him ranked in the No. 2 spot. You can justify Robinson as high as No. 2 overall.