No team’s season is over after two weeks, but several contenders have their fanbases a lot more anxious than they were entering the year.
Below, we examine the metrics behind four NFL 2023 playoff teams’ Week 2 losses. Note that all stats are courtesy of TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Cowboys Fall Apart on Defense vs. Saints
The Cowboys stifled the Browns in Week 1 but were completely bulldozed in their home opener against the Saints.
New Orleans reached the end zone on each of its first six drives and scored 44 points in total, the most the Cowboys have allowed in any game since 2020 against the Cleveland Browns.
Dallas was especially helpless in pass defense, allowing 0.84 EPA per dropback. For reference there were only three games the entire 2023 season that poor.
CARR TO SHAHEED 70 YARDS 🔥
📺: #NOvsDAL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/GV0MW5cduw— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
As a result, the Cowboys allowed 7.7 yards per play, their most in a game since a 2017 Thanksgiving loss to the Chargers.
The Cowboys were a dominant home team last regular season, going a perfect 8-0 and trailing for a total of 44:36. They exceeded that total in Sunday’s loss alone, trailing for 55:50 and losing their second straight home game when you include the Wild Card debacle against the Green Bay Packers.
Lions Can’t Finish Drives Against Buccaneers
Detroit squeaked out a comeback win in Week 1 vs. the Rams thanks to some clutch offensive drives, but the Lions couldn’t replicate that formula in Sunday’s loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Lions outgained the Bucs 463-216 (+247), the largest yardage differential in a loss since the Bills in 2022 vs. the Miami Dolphins. It was also Detroit’s largest yardage differential in a loss since 1976, per Stathead.
The big issue was Detroit’s red zone offense.
BUCS SAY NO on 4th and 8 with less than a minute to go! 👎
📺: #TBvsDET on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/cb5DlYWliH— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
The Lions went 1-7 (14%) scoring touchdowns in red zone trips on Sunday, with three drives that failed to produce any points due to a series of mistakes:
- Failed to score at the end of the first half after running out of time following a completion in the middle of the field.
- Intercepted in the fourth quarter after a holding penalty created a second-and-16 situation.
- Failed to convert on fourth-and-8 at the 11-yard line with 1:01 remaining in the fourth quarter.
For the season, the Lions are now 3-11 (27%) scoring touchdowns in the red zone, a season after finishing third in red zone TD pct (64%).
Ravens Collapse in Fourth Quarter Against Raiders
There was no shame in losing by centimeters in Kansas City in the season opener. But after a shocking fourth-quarter collapse against a perceived lackluster Las Vegas Raiders offense, the Ravens’ season is quickly on life support at 0-2.
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Baltimore seemed under control following a Derrick Henry TD to take a 23-13 lead with just over 12 minutes remaining. That was particularly true against Las Vegas, which had lost 49 straight games when trailing by double-digits in the fourth quarter dating back to 2016.
But the Ravens went three-and-out on their next two drives after Henry’s TD, and allowed 13 fourth-quarter points. Baltimore allowed Gardner Minshew to pass for 108 yards and 9.7 yards per attempt in the fourth quarter alone after holding the Raiders QB to 125 pass yards in the first three quarters.
🤫Momma, there goes that MAN 🦅#LVvsBAL | 📺 @ParamountPlus pic.twitter.com/zmFYWeJ8Im
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) September 15, 2024
For the season, the Ravens are allowing 10.8 yards per attempt and 0.57 EPA per dropback in the fourth quarter. They’ve looked much more like last year’s league-leading unit over the first three quarters, allowing 7.8 yards per attempt and -0.01 EPA per dropback. But none of that will matter moving forward if Baltimore continues to run out of gas late.
49ers Stagnate in Minnesota Against Vikings
Not having Christian McCaffrey was no problem for the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1, but it was a different story on Sunday.
The Niners fell in Minnesota for the second straight season, with Brock Purdy posting a negative EPA per dropback for just the fourth time in 23 career starts.
It’s early yet, but the 49ers’ signature strength of piling up yards after the catch has yet to materialize. San Francisco is averaging 3.3 YAC per reception through two weeks, well below their league-leading 2023 average of 6.5 YAC per reception. In fact, Sunday’s loss (3.1) and the Week 1 game vs the Jets (3.4) represent two of the five lowest YAC averages in a single game for San Francisco under head coach Kyle Shanahan.
The Shanahan-era Niners have a proven enough track record, and you would expect their talent to take over again eventually, particularly when McCaffrey returns. But for now, the easy buttons that have been prevalent throughout Purdy’s career have not been present.
Depleted Rams No-Show in Arizona
The Rams were extremely competitive in an OT loss at Detroit in Week 1 despite a litany of injuries. However, it appears the attrition has already reached insurmountable levels on the offense, as the Rams lost leading receiver Cooper Kupp with an ankle injury.
Los Angeles is now missing:
- All of their top three receivers from last season (Puka Nacua, Kupp, Tyler Higbee)
- Two projected starting offensive linemen (OT Alaric Jackson and G Steve Avila), with Kevin Dotson playing through an ankle sprain/foot injury
Making matters worse, the offense isn’t even the most problematic unit for the Rams. Per ESPN Stats & Info, the Rams have allowed 67 points this season, the third-most through two games in franchise history.
Los Angeles allowed 0.84 EPA per dropback on Sunday, the team’s worst in a game since at least 2000. With the 49ers coming to town in Week 3, an 0-3 start looks like a distinct possibility.
Bengals 0-2 Yet Again
Cincinnati delivered a much more spirited effort in comparison to its massive Week 1 upset loss against New England. However, an untimely defensive pass interference on fourth-and-16 allowed the Chiefs to escape with a win, sending the Bengals to 0-2 for the third straight season.
The Bengals are no stranger to early-season struggles. Cincinnati is now 6-9-1 in September games since drafting Joe Burrow in 2020, which ranks 22nd. From October on, the Bengals have gone 29-23, including 25-14 since 2021.
MORE: Biggest Surprises From Week 2 of 2024 NFL Season
However, the Bengals can only play with fire so many times, and this season could represent their final chance to capitalize on the trio of Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins before contracts break up that core.
Since the NFL went to 17 games and seven playoff teams per conference in 2021, only two out of 21 teams have started 0-2 and reached the playoffs.
One of those teams was the 2022 Bengals team that lost the AFC Championship at Arrowhead Stadium. Even with that track record, history is against Cincinnati repeating another miracle run.