Bengals vs. Titans Prediction, Pick: Can Joe Burrow upset Tennessee in the Divisional Round?

The Cincinnati Bengals and Tennessee Titans will face off in the Divisional Round -- Here's our Bengals vs. Titans prediction.

The Cincinnati Bengals beat the Las Vegas Raiders for their first playoff win in quite some time. Joe Burrow and company will look to keep that momentum going against the Tennessee Titans, who continue to get healthy after their first-round bye. Will the bye have helped Tennessee, or can Cincinnati continue their winning ways against the AFC’s No. 1 seed? Below are the NFL odds, along with my pick and prediction for the Bengals vs. Titans.

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans pick, prediction | Divisional Round

  • Spread: Titans -3.5 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Moneyline: Bengals +145, Titans -165
  • Over/Under: 47

Derrick Henry’s return

Derrick Henry was the best running back in the NFL through the first eight weeks of the season. He posted 937 yards and 10 touchdowns on 219 carries over eight games. Additionally, he contributed 18 receptions for 154 yards on 20 targets as well.

The Titans were playing at an elite level with Henry in the lineup. They went 6-2 in their first eight games, including wins over the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. Although Tennessee found success after Henry’s injury, it was clear their offense was significantly different.

Henry is expected to return to practice this week, and head coach Mike Vrabel said they’re going to get him ready for his normal workload. The Titans use Henry as a way to control the ball, limiting what their opponents can do offensively.

If he can come back to his usual capacity, Tennessee could potentially limit Joe Burrow and Cincinnati’s high-octane offense. The Bengals will need their offense to be clicking on all cylinders for this matchup, but they’ll also have to stop Henry if they want to pull off the upset this weekend.

Bengals vs. Titans betting trends

Both of these teams have found success against the spread (ATS) this season. Cincinnati boasts an 11-7 ATS record, while Tennessee’s sits at 10-7.

The Bengals are covering by an average of 4.2 points per game, and the Titans are covering by an average of 2.9.

Tennessee’s also looked great at home, where they’ve covered the spread in 66.7% of their games. With that said, Cincinnati has quietly covered in 75% of their road games, beating the spread by an average of 9.7 points per contest.

Surprisingly, both of these teams lean toward the under in their games. Cincinnati hit the under in 55.6% of their matchups, while Tennessee found the under in 52.9% of theirs.

Bengals vs. Titans prediction

This is an interesting matchup because Tennessee could be one of the more overrated No. 1 seeds in recent memory, while Cincinnati is one of the hotter teams in the playoffs.

The Titans will need to control this game with Henry, keeping Burrow and Co. off the field. That’s easier said than done, though.

It’s a bit odd that this game is set at -3.5 points, which is half a point above the key number (3). I slightly favor Tennessee in this game, although I believe Cincinnati is a live dog. Nevertheless, I’m taking the underdog to cover.

Bengals vs. Titans Prediction: Titans 24, Bengals 21