Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings features two mobile quarterbacks going against two of the most underrated defenses in the NFL. How should this matchup affect your player prop bets for guys like Justin Fields, Joshua Dobbs, DJ Moore, and others? Let’s take a look at our favorite Bears vs. Vikings player prop bets.
Top Bears vs. Vikings Player Prop Bets To Target
Justin Fields Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-135 at DraftKings)
Blewis:Â Given that this Vikings defense blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL, this sets up for a potentially big performance on the ground for Justin Fields. The last time these two teams played, Fields left the game in the third quarter with an injury and didn’t return back in Week 6. But in two and a half quarters, he ran for 46 rushing yards.
For the season, the Vikings have allowed the 11th-most rushing yards to QBs, and the only QBs with legitimate running ability they have faced are Jalen Hurts and Fields (for less than three quarters). Against a Vikings defense that is fourth in EPA/play and ninth in success rate since Week 6, this might be the Bears’ best shot at moving the ball offensively.
DJ Moore Over 4.5 Receptions (-115 at DraftKings), Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: In Fields’ past four fully healthy games, Moore has earned 34.3% of the targets, a rate that ranks among the elite. The opportunity count appears to be safe, and in all four games this season in which Moore has caught 5+ passes, he has cleared 95 receiving yards. If Moore is going to produce in a strong yards-after-catch spot against the blitz-heaviest defense, something has to give.
DJ Moore Anytime TD (+185 at FanDuel)
Soppe: Moore has a 34.3% target share in Fields’ past four fully healthy games and has four red-zone targets over that stretch. We are talking about a clear-cut WR1 (39.9% of Chicago receiving yards this season) in an underdog role against a blitz-heavy defense that encourages first-read passes. Happy to take my chances!
Darnell Mooney Under 2.5 Receptions (-150 at DraftKings)
Soppe: This season, in games Fields both started and finished, Darnell Mooney has accounted for just 8.2% completions. He’s never been a high-volume receiver, but that’s a concerning low rate in an offense that projects for 17 completions.
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For those not mathematically inclined, an 8.2% catch share on 17 completions suggests that 1.4 receptions is the outcome we’d expect.
Joshua Dobbs Under 237.5 Passing Yards (-130 at DraftKings)
Katz: I’m not quite sure why this line is so high. The Vikings don’t really want Joshua Dobbs throwing a ton. Since joining the team, he’s yet to attempt more than 34 passes.
If the Vikings are trailing, they will air it out to come back. I don’t envision that being the case against the Bears.
On the season, Dobbs went over this number twice in Arizona and once with the Vikings. If the Bears force Dobbs to have to throw, so be it. As long as they don’t, I don’t think the volume will be there, especially with Justin Jefferson out one more week.
Ty Chandler Under 32.5 Rushing Yards (-120 at DraftKings)
Blewis:Â 76% of Ty Chandler’s carries and 74% of his rushing yards have come in the last two weeks, and he should continue to have a bigger role in the offense for the rest of the season. But this sets up as a nice sell-high spot.
The Bears are allowing the fewest yards per carry this season and are a top-five run defense by EPA/play and success rate. They even allow the second-fewest rushing yards per game despite their 3-8 record, which is really impressive. Teams are running the ball late in games to control the clock against them, yet the Bears are still allowing fewer rushing yards per game than all but one team.
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