The Chicago Bears will face the New England Patriots in Week 10. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bears skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 10 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Caleb Williams, QB
Only once this season has a QB reached 18.5 fantasy points against the Patriots (Aaron Rodgers in Week 3), an interesting fact given that this is the seventh-worst yards-per-play defense in the league.
I remain enamored with Caleb Williams’ skill set, and if I’m a dynasty manager with him rostered, I’m more than happy to take my lumps this season with the understanding that high-end fantasy production could occur as early as this time next season.
Williams is battling through an ankle injury, and we haven’t seen enough consistency from him as a passer to consider him if the rushing upside is limited. At the moment, he checks in as my QB17 for Week 10.
D’Andre Swift, RB
D’Andre Swift’s Chicago career got off to a slow start, but he has four RB1 finishes this season and has been a top-20 producer at the position in each of his past five (all of which he either has four catches or a 35-yard gain in).
The Bears dealt away Khalil Herbert on Tuesday and are fully committed to Swift as their bellcow, a role that is going to land him as a fantasy starter every week. Just how high he can climb in the ranks will depend on Caleb Williams’ development, but that’s splitting hairs — you’re playing him and loving every bit of the role he’s locked into.
DJ Moore, WR
DJ Moore seemed to leave late with an injury last weekend that deserves monitoring, as this is a receiver who would be tough to start at less than full strength.
- Weeks 1-5: 21.9% on-field target share
- Weeks 6-9: 15.8% on-field target share
We knew the ride with Caleb Williams would be a wild one, and that’s proven out. If we get a clean injury report, Moore will go into the weekend ranked as a fine Flex play for me against the seventh-worst defense per EPA against receivers, but make sure to check back as the weekend approaches.
Keenan Allen, WR
Keenan Allen has just one top-40 week on his 2024 résumé and has yet to reach 45 yards in a game with the Bears. He earned 10 targets last week in Arizona, a step in the right direction, and continuing the most positive note you’ll see this week when it comes to the Bears’ passing attack.
Allen’s expected PPR points by week, 2024:
- Week 4 vs. Los Angeles Rams: 5.9
- Week 5 vs. Carolina Panthers: 10.7
- Week 6 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 11.2
- Week 8 at Washington Commanders: 11.3
- Week 9 at Arizona Cardinals: 16.4
I have Allen ranked second among Chicago’s receivers this week, and that makes him a low-end Flex option in Germany. But if you’re playing DFS (be it a showdown setting or a contest that lumps this in with the main slate), I can’t imagine that he will garner much interest from those staring at his results.
Allen’s role is worth more than his scoring profile would suggest this season — that makes him a buy-low option to consider.
Rome Odunze, WR
I understand that seeing a reasonable point total sitting on your bench is irritating, but it’s important to remember a very simple fact: those are lost points.
Starting Rome Odunze this week doesn’t make up for what you missed out on in Week 9. In fact, you risk making a second mistake instead of acting rationally.
Odunze’s season recap:
- Two games with 100+ yards
- Six games with under 45 yards
- Three games overachieving expectations
- Five games underachieving expectations
The rookie has played at least three-quarters of the snaps in every game this season, and I love what that means for his long-term growth. However, as you can see, you don’t simply get points for being on the field. Odunze has reached triple digits in air yards in consecutive weeks (season: 15.8-yard aDOT), a role that indicates one-off upside more than sustainable value.
Even with four teams on a bye and injuries aplenty, the rookie doesn’t crack my top 35 at the position for Week 10.
Cole Kmet, TE
Cole Kmet has been on the field for 79.3% of snaps this season, but those routes have largely been empty (one game with more than five targets this season). Personally, I’m buying Caleb Williams stock while it’s low, and that means some levels of optimism around Kmet by association. I’m having a hard time seeing him being a consistent producer the rest of the way.
New England is an above-average defense in terms of YAC and passing touchdown rate — it’s not a prohibitive matchup, but I need “favorable” for me to go in this direction.
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears Insights
New England Patriots
Team: The Patriots are averaging 264.8 yards of offense per game, the lowest mark in the NFL this season and the sixth-worst through nine weeks over the past decade (every team in the AFC East has a season represented in that bottom-6).
QB: Players in the 2000s with multiple efforts of 30 passes, 200 pass yards, and 35 rushing yards within their first five career games – Maye (2024), Gardner Minshew (2019), and Robert Griffin III (2012).
Offense: The Patriots allow pressure without being blitzed on 37.8% of dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league.
Defense: The Patriots average just 1.78 sacks per game, ranking them 29th in the NFL (the Bears rank ninth: 2.88 per game).
Fantasy: Rhamondre Stevenson has scored four times over the past two weeks despite none of his 30 carries gaining more than seven yards over that stretch.
Betting: Since 2009, the Patriots are just 3-8-1 ATS (27.3%) when traveling to face a rookie quarterback.
Chicago Bears
Team: Chicago is 3-0 at home (wins over the Titans, Rams, and Panthers), 1-0 in neutral spots (Jaguars in London), and 0-4 on the road (Texans, Colts, Commanders, and Cardinals).
QB: Two steps forward, two steps back. After Caleb Williams completed six-of-seven deep passes in Weeks 5-6, he is just two-of-16 when stretching the field in his two games since (15-plus air yards).
Offense: The Bears have reached the red zone on just 22.5% of their drives this season, ranking them 28th in the league.
Defense: The Bears have the third-best red zone defense in the NFL (40.9% touchdown rate, tops in the NFC).
Fantasy: D’Andre Swift has at least four catches or a 35-plus yard gain in five straight games.
Betting: The Bears have covered seven straight home games (overs have cashed in five of their past six at home).