Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler has been the best running back in fantasy over the past two years combined. After finishing as the overall RB1 last season, Ekeler is a surefire top pick in 2023 drafts. What is his fantasy football projection for 2023?
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Austin Ekeler’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Currently, Arian Foster is the greatest UDFA running back of all time. When it’s all said and done, Ekeler may surpass him. That’s how good Ekeler has been over his entire career, but specifically the past four seasons.
In 2019 and 2020, Ekeler was very good. He averaged 19.3 PPR fantasy points per game and 16.5 ppg, finishing among the top 10 running backs both seasons.
Following Melvin Gordon’s departure in 2021, Ekeler finally had the Chargers’ backfield to himself. Up until then, there were still questions as to whether the undersized Ekeler, at 5’9″, 199 pounds, could handle a full workload. He put those to rest by handling 276 touches and averaging 21.5 ppg.
Last season, Ekeler decided his overall RB2 finish from 2021 was good, but it wasn’t enough. Ekeler handled 311 touches, totaled 1,637 yards, scored 18 touchdowns, and finished as the overall RB1 averaging 21.9 ppg.
The reason the Chargers can get away with giving Ekeler so many touches is they don’t do it on the ground. Ekeler carried the ball 206 times in 2021 and 204 times in 2022. He’s never going to be a high-volume runner.
Where Ekeler makes his hay is as a receiver. His 18.9% target share last year was a career-high, allowing him to catch 107 passes for 722 yards. With the Chargers also using him as the primary goal-line back (he was first in red-zone touches last season and second in 2021), Ekeler’s upside is as high as it gets.
Should You Draft Austin Ekeler This Year?
When it comes to draft strategy, we’re going to see a shift this year to wide receivers going early. We last saw this in 2016 when five of the first seven picks were WRs. But the most valuable asset in fantasy football remains the elite running back. Ekeler is an elite running back.
The Chargers’ offense is also poised to be somehow even better this season. They are upgrading at offensive coordinator to Kellen Moore, who orchestrated the No. 1 scoring offense in 2019 and 2021.
Although Ekeler is a running back, we actually like that the Chargers are extremely pass-heavy, given Ekeler’s pass-catching prowess. Over the past two seasons, only the Bucs had a higher neutral game script pass rate than the Chargers’ 63%. And no team played faster than the Chargers’ 25.2 seconds per snap. But the team in second at 25.3 seconds per snap? Moore’s Dallas Cowboys.
Fantasy managers can rest easy knowing the Chargers are unlikely to play any slower or throw much less.
Ekeler probably isn’t going to finish as the overall RB1 again. For starters, he’s 28 years old. I can confidently say Ekeler will not fall off a cliff this season. But historically, the overall RB1 does not come from someone that old.
Also of note is that it’s been 20 years since we’ve seen a repeat overall RB1. And no, I don’t just mean back to back, as Priest Holmes did in 2002 and 2003. We haven’t seen a single running back post two overall RB1 finishes since Holmes in 2003.
Of course, fantasy managers would be just fine if Ekeler was the overall RB2 or RB3, or really anywhere if he’s averaging over 20 ppg. And that is exactly what we can expect from Ekeler. There’s simply no reason to think otherwise.
Ekeler’s ADP is RB2, No. 4 overall. That’s perfectly fair and exactly where I would take him. And if you want to take him ahead of Christian McCaffrey, or even ahead of Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, you won’t get any objection from me. He should go no lower than fourth overall, and if you want to lock up an elite running back early, do not hesitate to draft Ekeler first.