The Atlanta Falcons looked much better in Week 2, much of which can likely be attributed to Kirk Cousins getting healthier and looking better. As mentioned in the Philadelphia Eagles-Falcons MNF preview, the Falcons didn’t run any play-action in Week 1. In Week 2, they ran eight plays off play action and ranked in the top 12 in EPA (expected points added) when doing so.
They are unfortunately going to need to do more than just play-action passing to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes, especially) struggled a lot last week and still managed to defeat the Cincinnati Bengals.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Chiefs -3 - Moneyline
Chiefs (-162); Falcons (+136) - Over/Under
46.5 total points - Start Time
8:20 p.m. ET - Location
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Falcons vs. Chiefs Prediction and Preview
The Chiefs’ offense ranks ninth in passing EPA and eight in rushing EPA thus far into the season. The loss of Isiah Pacheco means someone else in the running back room will need to step up.
Over the course of Pacheco’s career, the Chiefs have ranked 11th in yards per rush but surprisingly rank 31st in the league in yards per rush after contact. Even if you shorten the horizon to just 2023 and 2024, they still rank 29th. Per Tru Media, the Chiefs also rank fourth in yards per rush before contact.
This bodes extremely well for the Chiefs because of Carson Steele. According to PFF, of the 352 running backs in the NCAA with over 59 rushing attempts, Steele ranked 41st in yards after contact per attempt. The Falcons defense ranks 13th in stopping yards after contact and 15th in stopping yards before contact.
Transitioning to the passing game, the Chiefs have faced the Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens, who rank 19th and 12th in pressure generated this season, respectively. The Falcons are even worse, ranking dead last with only 29% of their opponents’ dropbacks resulting in pressure. Even worse, the Falcons blitz at the 22nd highest rate in the league.
Furthermore, the Chiefs biggest road block this year has been Cover 2. They rank 30th in the league in passing EPA when facing it. Luckily for them, they face a team who ranks 31st in defensive EPA when deploying it.
Overall, the loss of Pacheco and still not having Hollywood Brown will make it tough for the Chiefs offense to perform as well as expectations were set to begin the 2024 season. This still doesn’t mean they won’t be able to play as a top 10 offense. I think they will. I have not seen enough from the Falcons to believe they are competitive against the Chiefs.
My picks: Chiefs ML, Chiefs -3