The Atlanta Falcons ranked fifth in play-action rate in 2023. In Week 1 against the Steelers, they didn’t run play-action at all, which only occurred once in the entire league last year (Vikings vs. Saints in Week 10).
They have also ran pistol the third most out of any team this season, a formation in which the Minnesota Vikings ranked dead last from 2022 to 2023, per Tru Media. All of this is to say the Falcons don’t look as though they have much faith in Kirk Cousins.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Eagles (-5.5) - Moneyline
Eagles (-245); Falcons (+200) - Over/Under
46 total points - Game time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia)
Falcons vs. Eagles Preview and Prediction
The Philadelphia Eagles‘ defense finished 13th in pressure percentage last week, despite facing Jordan Love, who ranked 10th last week in quickest time to throw. This isn’t an outlier, as he finished ninth overall in 2023, per PFF. For what it’s worth, Cousins is even faster in getting the ball off, ranking fifth so far this year and 12th last season. Where Philadelphia found success was through forcing Love to hold onto the ball longer than usual.
Quick pressures are defined as pressure when the time to throw was under 2.5 seconds. The Eagles ranked 29th last week in quick-pressure percentage. The Eagles’ saving grace is how each quarterback performs when they are under pressure.
Them: How many times have you watched this @NakobeDean hit?
Us: Yes pic.twitter.com/Jh1CKbWLfl
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) September 8, 2024
Love had the highest EPA (expected points added) of all quarterbacks last week under pressure, whereas Cousins finished 19th overall with -4.44 EPA on 11 plays under pressure.
Defensively, the Falcons performed quite well last week, not giving up a single offensive touchdown to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Overall, their defense ranked ninth in EPA but only 29th in pressure generated.
This doesn’t bode well for them as they face the Eagles, who managed to score 34 points on a Green Bay Packers defense that generated pressure on 42.1% of dropbacks, fourth in the league in Week 1.
Typically, I try to give paths to victory for each team. What mismatches can they take advantage of that would give them a reasonable chance at winning, or even covering the spread?
For the Falcons, that would require them to completely make a 180 from last week’s performance. Cousins doesn’t look like himself, and they will need him to shake that rust off to beat an Eagles team that played sloppy and still managed to beat a good Packers team.
My picks: Eagles -5.5, Eagles ML