Arch Manning, the former five-star recruit who was perhaps prematurely anointed as a future first-round pick. We originally had Manning in the first-round range in the Mock Draft Simulator due to projection: “He is draft eligible, and if he plays as well as he can play with his support in Austin, this is where he can go.”
At the time, it seemed safe to assume at least a step forward developmentally and a worthwhile exercise for users trying to get a feel for the 2026 QB class as a whole. Manning’s head coach, Steve Sarkisian, has an experienced offensive mind, as well as a strong offensive line and weapons core on paper.
Latest on Arch Manning’s Draft Outlook
Fast forward to today, and by any and every measure, Manning has been poor to start the year. His Week 1 showing against Ohio State put his poor mechanics, accuracy, and field vision under the spotlight, and those issues have only festered and materialized further through three weeks.
He hasn’t secured a PFSN QBi score higher than 72.6 in a given week, with middling EPA per clean dropback numbers and negative EPA per pressured dropback numbers in each game.
Looking at both the advanced statistics and the film, Manning has not been good. This doesn’t mean he can’t develop. But the fact that there’s been so little progression after a full offseason as the starter is concerning, to say the least.
We can speculate about the “why”. There have been rumors of an injury, contradicted by Manning’s coach. Perhaps his recruiting profile was inflated by the legacy of his last name. But we’re not here to bury a 21-year-old CFB passer in his first season as a full-time starter. We’re here to give an accurate valuation. Having that in mind, here’s what we can say about Arch:
Barring a drastic turnaround, 2026 is more than likely not his declaration year. On film, assuming he’s healthy, he looks at least two years away from being ready for an NFL Draft ascent. SEC play should only reinforce this truth.
Manning still has upside – he’s a high-level size-adjusted athlete, and when his mechanics are sound, his arm strength shines – but the NFL Draft is not a legacy affair. Manning has to earn early-round capital on his own merits, and right now, he’s far away from accomplishing that.
Perhaps it might be beneficial for Manning to adopt that mindset, too. He doesn’t need to rush anything; he has no monetary or reputational incentive to declare earlier than he should. He should take his time, get reps, and gain comfort without setting a deadline to follow in his uncles’ footsteps or forcing himself to shoulder inordinate pressure.
We’ll still keep Manning in the Mock Draft Simulator so users who’d like to experiment with his placement in mock drafts still have the opportunity to do so, but he’ll be out of draftable range, to help reflect his “too early” status.
