Arch Manning has spent much of his young college career under an intense spotlight, and his rapid rise at Texas is already influencing early conversations about future NFL quarterback classes. The former five-star recruitstepped into the starting role last season and immediately reignited national debate about his long-term ceiling.
Former NFL QB Says Arch Manning Would Be Clear No. 1 Pick
Manning has already said he plans to return to Texas for the 2026 season, but that has not stopped analysts from projecting where he would stack up in a class expected to feature Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore (if he declares) at the top. One former NFL passer believes the debate would not be close if Manning reverted course and entered his name into the mix.
In a recent appearance on the “Dan Patrick Show,” ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky delivered an emphatic endorsement of Manning, pushing back on the idea that the Texas quarterback still trails his peers in experience or polish.
“Not even close, not even close, not even close. He would be the runaway No. 1 pick,” Orlovsky said. “Arch Manning is kind of like the throwback 1970’s quarterback with modern-day training and nutrition.”
.@danorlovsky7 says Arch Manning would be the “runaway #1 pick” if he declared for the 2026 NFL Draft 👀 pic.twitter.com/HIAxqIZbwD
— Dan Patrick Show (@dpshow) January 7, 2026
Manning’s combination of size, arm strength, and mobility has long intrigued scouts, and his sophomore production only strengthened that perception. He threw for 3,163 yards with 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions while adding 399 rushing yards and 10 scores on the ground. His development comes with the added weight of his family name, as the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning and the grandson of former Saints quarterback Archie Manning.
Orlovsky said the sophomore’s growth in Steve Sarkisian’s system has elevated him into a different tier. He pointed to Manning’s ability to process defenses, operate within structure, and create off-script as traits that already resemble those of established NFL starters.
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“I am a huge fan of this guy,” Orlovsky said. “He is physically remarkably gifted. He is intelligent when it comes to the football understanding of speed and space.”
Beyond the on-field skill set, Orlovsky pointed to Manning’s temperament and competitive edge as reasons he believes the Texas quarterback is built for long-term success. Manning has faced intense scrutiny since high school, and Orlovsky said the way he has handled expectations speaks to his maturity.
“I think he is wired the right way,” Orlovsky said. “When you watch him on the sideline, he is ultra competitive. I think he has weathered a lot.”
Even with Manning publicly committed to returning to Austin, Orlovsky’s comments add a new layer to what is already shaping up to be a crowded quarterback conversation. If Manning continues trending upward, the hypothetical debate surrounding his draft stock may only grow louder.
